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COVID-19 Talk

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2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

^^^
I’m not sure what conclusion can be drawn from that.

that the virus was here earlier than we think.

here’s the link to the actual story, so that graph is in context: 

U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic, far exceeding number attributed to covid-19

 

An analysis of federal data for the first time estimates excess deaths -- the number beyond what would normally be expected -- during that period.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

 

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14 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

This is trending on the news now.. the same thing happened in 2018 but the net difference was 12,000 extra deaths per week.


image.thumb.png.b0fe39aec6c45e3388affdda6279ed6a.png
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEKAk47voJsqSgZyPRY31AJIqGAgEKg8IACoHCAowjtSUCjC30XQwzqe5AQ?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen
 


 

you are deliberately misrepresenting the data on this graph.this has nothing to do with 2018.

from my link above 

The analysis suggests that the deaths announced in the weeks leading up to April 4, based on reports from state public health departments, failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic. Those incomplete numbers were widely cited at a time when many states were making critical decisions about closing businesses and taking other actions to stem the spread of the virus.

The analysis also suggests that the death toll from the pandemic is significantly higher than has been reported, said Daniel Weinberger, a Yale professor of epidemiology and the leader of the research team. As of Sunday, more than 54,000 people had been killed by the novel coronavirus, according to numbers reported by state health departments and compiled by The Post.

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There was a study from Italy that showed the same data. 52K was the estimate vs. 26K the official total. The discrepancy comes from a lack of testing early on in the outbreak. It's very noticeable in southern areas of Italy that didn't have a terrible outbreak like the north, too. 

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It would nice to see this data for other cities/states in USA. I guess this stuff isn't always published immediately. That's why I suspect that the original modeling that the admin showed of 100K-240K won't be far off at all. Given that that they never posted timelines on that, I assumed it was the first pandemic wave. 

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12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It would nice to see this data for other cities/states in USA. I guess this stuff isn't always published immediately. That's why I suspect that the original modeling that the admin showed of 100K-240K won't be far off at all. Given that that they never posted timelines on that, I assumed it was the first pandemic wave. 

This makes sense.  For all the hullabaloo about how bad the models were it looks like they’ll be pretty accurate.  

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You can order a test for antibodies online now, $170. Requires you to schedule a blood draw at a local testing center. Not taking insurance but accepts HSAs and I'm guessing you could submit bill to insurance for reimbursement. I might do it just to see if I am a silent carrier. Found out through a friend who knows doctors in New Orleans who are using the same test (not through this company).

www.healthlabs.com

 

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Hey y'all:

 

Expanded COVID-19 Testing

Maryland and Washington D.C. residents without a doctor: Johns Hopkins Medicine is now offering COVID-19 screening, and testing if appropriate, for Maryland and Washington, D.C. citizens who do not have a doctor. If a person tests positive for COVID-19 and does not require hospitalization, we have a team of doctors who can manage their care remotely, so they can recover at home.

This screening is available at any Johns Hopkins location. For further information, call our hotline for those without primary care physicians: 443-997-9537.

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6 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

You can order a test for antibodies online now, $170. Requires you to schedule a blood draw at a local testing center. Not taking insurance but accepts HSAs and I'm guessing you could submit bill to insurance for reimbursement. I might do it just to see if I am a silent carrier. Found out through a friend who knows doctors in New Orleans who are using the same test (not through this company).

www.healthlabs.com

 

Antibody testing doesn’t tell you whether you are a silent carrier.  It tells you whether or not you may have had the coronavirus and subsequently developed antibodies.  

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Well apparently NJ’s lower numbers this weekend were indeed lack of weekend reporting, they are announcing almost 400 new deaths today. 

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Well apparently NJ’s lower numbers this weekend were indeed lack of weekend reporting, they are announcing almost 400 new deaths today. 

Yuppp....

 

Like I said. "First Sunday, huh?"

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Just now, supernovasky said:

Yuppp....

 

Like I said. "First Sunday, huh?"

Yeah but with NY’s continued lower numbers even with NJ’s increase we’ll almost certainly be lower than last Tuesday, so the downward trend continues. 

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah but with NY’s continued lower numbers even with NJ’s increase we’ll almost certainly be lower than last Tuesday, so the downward trend continues. 

Oh yeah. New York has CERTAINLY gotten a hold on their pandemic. They have had the longest stay at home, and are religious about following it, and have the highest testing rates. I expect it to fall there.

 

Now, for the rest of the nation? Yeah. Not promising right now.

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18 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Hey y'all:

 

Expanded COVID-19 Testing

Maryland and Washington D.C. residents without a doctor: Johns Hopkins Medicine is now offering COVID-19 screening, and testing if appropriate, for Maryland and Washington, D.C. citizens who do not have a doctor. If a person tests positive for COVID-19 and does not require hospitalization, we have a team of doctors who can manage their care remotely, so they can recover at home.

This screening is available at any Johns Hopkins location. For further information, call our hotline for those without primary care physicians: 443-997-9537.

"if appropriate" is the key there. i highly doubt anyone can just roll up and get a test. 

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Just now, mappy said:

"if appropriate" is the key there. i highly doubt anyone can just roll up and get a test. 

Yeah - still the whole "expanded testing" hed makes me hopeful the barrier to getting tested is lower there!

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42 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Oh yeah. New York has CERTAINLY gotten a hold on their pandemic. They have had the longest stay at home, and are religious about following it, and have the highest testing rates. I expect it to fall there.

 

Now, for the rest of the nation? Yeah. Not promising right now.

They have not had the longest stay at home, I believe that was California.

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

They have not had the longest stay at home, I believe that was California.

Oh yeah, forgot theirs was 3 days earlier!

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1 hour ago, mdhokie said:

You can order a test for antibodies online now, $170. Requires you to schedule a blood draw at a local testing center. Not taking insurance but accepts HSAs and I'm guessing you could submit bill to insurance for reimbursement. I might do it just to see if I am a silent carrier. Found out through a friend who knows doctors in New Orleans who are using the same test (not through this company).

www.healthlabs.com

 

Interesting.  It's tempting but $170 is pretty steep just to be curious.

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IMO, antibody testing is not a cure all and shoudn't be touted as a reliable indicator of any partial or full immunity until more reliable studies on it come out.

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1 hour ago, supernovasky said:

Today is the first day New York is not leading in deaths. Great news for New York. 

New York, New Jersey...same thing lol

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18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

we saw this coming last month and bought into a CSA for chickens throughout the summer. and last week we bought half a pig from a local farm.

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1 hour ago, wxtrix said:

we saw this coming last month and bought into a CSA for chickens throughout the summer. and last week we bought half a pig from a local farm.

Still plenty of meat at Wegmans.

 

Tysons doesn't run everything.

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1 hour ago, wxtrix said:

we saw this coming last month and bought into a CSA for chickens throughout the summer. and last week we bought half a pig from a local farm.

Good thinking.  My brother has a big freezer in his basement and does something similar.  He's gone to a local butcher (in the Cleveland area) who sells stuff in bulk or large quantities, pre-cut.  So for instance he can get fillets or chicken breasts and the like for relatively cheaper than you'd buy in the store, but he buys a lot of them.  He vacuum packs and freezes that, and it keeps quite awhile in that freezer.

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1 hour ago, supernovasky said:

Still plenty of meat at Wegmans.

 

Tysons doesn't run everything.

the smaller, local processing plants will most likely stay open, but the danger is that the chicken and pig farmers are going to kill the animals they would normally send to the large processing plants and the only supply will be from animals going to those smaller processors.  it's unclear and probably unlikely that they will be able to keep up with national demand during the time the large processing plants are down.

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41 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Good thinking.  My brother has a big freezer in his basement and does something similar.  He's gone to a local butcher (in the Cleveland area) who sells stuff in bulk or large quantities, pre-cut.  So for instance he can get fillets or chicken breasts and the like for relatively cheaper than you'd buy in the store, but he buys a lot of them.  He vacuum packs and freezes that, and it keeps quite awhile in that freezer.

because we live in an area surrounded by family farms, we're going to reduce our supermarket demand this summer by relying on those farms for eggs, meat/poultry, and produce. that way people in the area who can't take that route will have more stuff in the store.

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1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

the smaller, local processing plants will most likely stay open, but the danger is that the chicken and pig farmers are going to kill the animals they would normally send to the large processing plants and the only supply will be from animals going to those smaller processors.  it's unclear and probably unlikely that they will be able to keep up with national demand during the time the large processing plants are down.

That would be unfortunate. Supply chain is all kinked up.

 

I'll buy extra chicken just in case.

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