mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said: Did MD start the new policy of testing all the nursing home residents and staff yet? I'm wondering if that's why there's such a big jump in cases (and still a high positive rate). any tests given this week wouldnt have come back that fast, i don't think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 The overall picture is that lockdowns do not really reduce transmissibility in a meaningful way (if your goal is "ending the outbreak" like many governors), and reducing lockdowns does not create the mythical enormous spike in deaths people expect, probably because many, many more people are already infected than we realize. The only way out of this disease is herd immunity, naturally and maybe vaccine-aided at some point. All we are doing is destroying our economy to achieve the same end goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: You're all over the place today Phin. Within the span of one hour, you said: - Not being on lockdowns does not increase the transmissibility, look at Denmark. - Being on lockdowns is not enough to lower the transmissibility and we will reach herd immunity on lockdown, look at us. They're mutually exclusive. Also there's no way on earth you get to herd immunity while on lockdown, that would take forever. dont feed the fire. it will burn out on its own if everyone leaves it alone 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, mappy said: but thats you assuming it isn't widespread. its been widespread and until you test everyone you will never know how widespread it actually is. I’m not really assuming anything. If the % positive dropped as the # of tests went up it would appear to be less widespread. If it remains constant it’s more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: I’m not really assuming anything. If the % positive dropped as the # of tests went up it would appear to less widespread. If it remains constant it’s more widespread. its going to remain constant because its widespread. get used to seeing the positive percentages rise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, mappy said: its going to remain constant because its widespread. get used to seeing the positive percentages rise Hmmm, not sure about that. NYC and NJ saw their % positives drop considerably over time. I would think that the more our mitigation efforts work the lower it would go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: dont feed the fire. it will burn out on its own if everyone leaves it alone Agree. I made this error about a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Hmmm, not sure about that. NYC and NJ saw their % positives drop considerably over time. I would think that the more our mitigation efforts work the lower it would go. They have been testing more than MD has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, mappy said: They have been testing more than MD has. Correct, as their testing ramped up their % positive went down, hopefully ours will do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Correct, as their testing ramped up their % positive went down, hopefully ours will do the same. Now you're getting it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, mappy said: Now you're getting it! lol that’s been my point all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: lol that’s been my point all along mmmmm not sure, but ill take your word for it. in the end, our positive cases are going to continue to rise as we test more residents. and it should be expected every time there is an update. it shouldn't be a metric for reopening and it shouldn't be something to fret over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Oh lord. So many of those restaurants are walk up-wait in lines. I can imagine if it gets crowded on the beaches, there will be a LOT of people lining up and crowding the concession stand style restaurants there. At least if I'm remembering correctly from my one time there. At least that won't happen until phase 1, which we are still probably 14 days from assuming hospitalizations start dropping like they did today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, mappy said: mmmmm not sure, but ill take your word for it. in the end, our positive cases are going to continue to rise as we test more residents. and it should be expected every time there is an update. it shouldn't be a metric for reopening and it shouldn't be something to fret over. I haven’t been talking about that all, I’m talking about the % positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: I haven’t been talking about that all, I’m talking about the % positive. and its going to continue to rise as we test more people. why are we going around in circles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, mappy said: and its going to continue to rise as we test more people. why are we going around in circles? % positive shouldn’t rise!!!! # of positives should rise!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Have we seen huge spikes in infections from FL and TX beaches? Why would we expect MD beaches to somehow be more dangerous? Doesn't seem logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: % positive shouldn’t rise!!!! # of positives should rise!!! i may not be the best math person out there, but if we see a rise in positive cases, % positive is going to rise too until we test enough people to level it out. More you test, more negatives will be found, thus lowering the % positive. We aren't there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Tbh...at this point, what's the difference between opening a beach and a park or trail? Shits been packed in recent weeks. Beach will be no different. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, snowfan said: Tbh...at this point, what's the difference between opening a beach and a park or trail? Shits been packed in recent weeks. Beach will be no different. I agree. Was just sharing the post, not that I agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i may not be the best math person out there, but if we see a rise in positive cases, % positive is going to rise too until we test enough people to level it out. More you test, more negatives will be found, thus lowering the % positive. We aren't there yet. Now I think y'all are saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, snowfan said: Tbh...at this point, what's the difference between opening a beach and a park or trail? Shits been packed in recent weeks. Beach will be no different. True enough. Annapolis rock was slammed this last weekend. I noped the heck out of that place and found a nice more relaxing and empty trail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i may not be the best math person out there, but if we see a rise in positive cases, % positive is going to rise too until we test enough people to level it out. More you test, more negatives will be found, thus lowering the % positive. We aren't there yet. If the testing is constant yes you would see the % increase. My only point was that the testing wasn’t constant, we got 6,600 results back which presumably means we tested a lot more people somewhat recently. The % of positives was still over 25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Now I think y'all are saying the same thing. maybe. i'm not even sure whats the argument anymore. the state isn't testing enough. until we do we arent going to be seeing a decline % positive, or positive cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: If the testing is constant yes you would see the % increase. My only point was that the testing wasn’t constant, we got 6,600 results back which presumably means we tested a lot more people somewhat recently. The % of positives was still over 25%. because its widespread and to be expected. its going to be some time before we see that go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, mappy said: because its widespread and to be expected. its going to be some time before we see that go down. I know this isn't a metric for reopening MD, however isn't there an expectation that some of these cases are going to require hospitalization? I don't believe MD is randomly testing people, just sick people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Have we seen huge spikes in infections from FL and TX beaches? Why would we expect MD beaches to somehow be more dangerous? Doesn't seem logical. FL governor has ordered their state medical examiner to stop reporting numbers. We're never going to get a real picture from that state. The Lt. Governor of Texas said there are more important things than living. Both states are example of political officials who really don't care. Data from those two states will be murky at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 1, 2020 Author Share Posted May 1, 2020 Just now, Leaking Gut said: I know this isn't a metric for reopening MD, however isn't there an expectation that some of these cases are going to require hospitalization? I don't believe MD is randomly testing people, just sick people. Yes, there will be those who are recently positive that will require hospitalizations. not everyone will of course, which is why hogan isn't using it as a metic. and correct, as far as i know, you can't just go get a test. i have no idea who they are testing, i assume only those with symptoms. but they may be contact testing too, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted May 1, 2020 Share Posted May 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: because its widespread and to be expected. its going to be some time before we see that go down. Maybe, maybe not. Depends on how much our mitigation is working and how many people we test daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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