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April 2020


donsutherland1
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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First time since 2000 that we are getting a cool April after such a warm March.

Top 5 warmest Marches in NYC since 2000

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Mar
Apr
Season
2012 50.9 54.8 52.8
2016 48.9 53.3 51.1
2010 48.2 57.9 53.0
2020 48.0 50.9 49.1
2000 47.2 51.0 49.1

 

 

no year had a March that was warmer than April...1946 came the closest when March averaged 49.8 and April 50.4...

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11 minutes ago, uncle W said:

no year had a March that was warmer than April...1946 came the closest when March averaged 49.8 and April 50.4...

Also our first year since 1998 when the March maximum temperature was higher than April.

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Mar
Apr
Season
2020 77 68 77
2019 75 80 80
2018 62 82 82
2017 70 87 87
2016 79 82 82
2015 62 80 80
2014 66 77 77
2013 59 82 82
2012 78 88 88
2011 77 83 83
2010 74 92 92
2009 70 92 92
2008 63 84 84
2007 78 86 86
2006 74 83 83
2005 63 87 87
2004 70 85 85
2003 69 88 88
2002 72 96 96
2001 57 87 87
2000 71 75 75
1999 74 80 80
1998 86 73 86
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17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If we can clear out after the round of showers this morning it will help. Currently these clouds are limiting are instability 

The mesoscale models have always had this late morning band pushing through followed by the main show a couple of hours later. Currently the cold front is all the way back in Central PA, near State College.

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It'll probably just be some heavy showers. Activity out west doesn't look like much 

The storms don’t really develop until they reach our area where the steeper midlevel lapse rates are located. JFK already gusting over 40 mph ahead of the storms. You can see some storms ahead of the main energy firing over NNJ with this steep midlevel lapse rate  plume.

Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   52  48  86 S31G41    

5E9D4BF6-9E46-4649-8267-41CF1DB4688A.gif.34db2ef560eab430df65513ed959521d.gif

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The storms don’t really develop until they reach our area where the stronger midlevel lapse rates are located. JFK already gusting over 40 mph ahead of the storms. You can see the storms firing over NNJ under this steep midlevel lapse rate  plume.

Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   52  48  86 S31G41    

5E9D4BF6-9E46-4649-8267-41CF1DB4688A.gif.34db2ef560eab430df65513ed959521d.gif

 

The 15z run of the HRRR shows the line blowing up as it comes down off the mountains.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Also our first year since 1998 when the March maximum temperature was higher than April.

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Mar
Apr
Season
2020 77 68 77
2019 75 80 80
2018 62 82 82
2017 70 87 87
2016 79 82 82
2015 62 80 80
2014 66 77 77
2013 59 82 82
2012 78 88 88
2011 77 83 83
2010 74 92 92
2009 70 92 92
2008 63 84 84
2007 78 86 86
2006 74 83 83
2005 63 87 87
2004 70 85 85
2003 69 88 88
2002 72 96 96
2001 57 87 87
2000 71 75 75
1999 74 80 80
1998 86 73 86

yeah so far...not sure but I think the latest 80 degree day came in June 1924...

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 15z run of the HRRR shows the line blowing up as it comes down off the mountains.

This first line developed  very quickly. But you can see both HRRR versions with a second line sweeping through right behind it. Don’t need much sun or clearing to get storms going with such steep midlevel lapse rates.

 

5539EA08-D8BD-44D5-AD9F-0625FAA3AC12.thumb.png.fe48cc25b280ebd1da8a6698d1204d8d.png

 

 

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MD 424 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 0424
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

   Areas affected...northeast
   Virginia...Maryland...Deleware...southeast Pennsylvania and New
   Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211623Z - 211830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind may undergo some
   increase by early to mid afternoon over the Middle Atlantic region.
   Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...A band of low-topped convection currently extends from
   eastern PA southwest into West Virginia moving east at around 45 kt.
   Activity is developing along a cold front and in association with
   deeper ascent attending a progressive shortwave trough. The
   downstream warm sector is only weakly unstable due to widespread
   pre-frontal rain and clouds. A relatively narrow corridor of partial
   clearing is occurring just ahead of the cold front, though tendency
   has been for dewpoints to mix down into the 30s F, due to a
   relatively shallow moist layer evident on the 12Z Dulles ROAB. The
   Wallops RAOB indicated a somewhat deeper near-surface moist layer
   with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s. As temperatures rise into
   the low-mid 60s F and where low-mid 40s near-surface dewpoints can
   be maintained, sufficient instability (300-500 J/kg MLCAPE) might
   develop to support updrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts.
   This will be promoted by inverted-V boundary layers and potential
   for southwesterly winds of 40-45 kt in the 1-2 km layer to be
   transported to the surface within some of the convective cores.
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