• Member Statistics

    15,882
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LanaM
    Newest Member
    LanaM
    Joined
Carvers Gap

Late Spring / Summer 2020 Thread

Recommended Posts

Freeze warning up for many areas tonight with frost advisories in the Central Valley to just north of Chattanooga.  GFS is showing some weak moderation for Sunday morning.  Still frosty, but less severe.  Tonight is a total crap shoot.  As MRX notes, if the wind dies down...temps will drop quickly into the freezing range.  Very much hoping the wind stays up.  Either way, looks like Saturday and Sunday for NE TN are true frost threats with marginal problems on Tuesday morning.  Really looking forward to exiting this pattern.  

As others have noted...pattern change to warmer looks on tap after Wednesday.   GEFS really likes ridging over the top(in the East) with troughing periodically underneath.  EPS likes a true eastern ridge/western trough combination.  One is a warm pattern.  One is outright hot.  I am tired of covering the garden.  Time to make a break for summer!

2065297481_ScreenShot2020-05-08at1_15_36PM.png.6edf8de1a2926225e655de9cdd1d442b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like frost and freeze products are hoisted again for tonight for entirety of the forum area, including many areas which were not covered last night.  IMHO, this is the night we make a run at the record in TRI.  Winds will be calm and clear.  @AMZ8990, is your area under a frost advisory for tonight in west TN?  Update...middle and E TN have products up.  W TN must have been just the older products prior to expiration.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like one last chance for frost in NE TN on Monday night/Tuesday AM.  I am going to cover plants tonight out of an abundance of caution just because temps are forecast into the upper 30s.  Would only take calm winds late for things to get sketchy.  TRI has already set two record lows, and Tuesday may well be a chance at a  third.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Likley the last frost advisory of the season for NE TN tonight.  This will be the fifth time in six days that we have covered our garden.  Really over that aspect of what is a pretty historic air mass over E TN.  If we break a record low tonight, that will make the third record low since Weds night.  Will be close.   Also, frost tonight would also be very late so maybe a top 5 late frost as well.  Add in high elevation snow...and it is time for summer.  Rest of the garden goes in Wednesday.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Summer is on its way.  This week should be titled, "From the Freezer to the Furnace."  So, glad to see these cold temps leave - mainly because they are out of season and causing us to work our tail off in the gardening community!  LOL.  

  • Like 3
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Likley the last frost advisory of the season for NE TN tonight.  This will be the fifth time in six days that we have covered our garden.  Really over that aspect of what is a pretty historic air mass over E TN.  If we break a record low tonight, that will make the third record low since Weds night.  Will be close.   Also, frost tonight would also be very late so maybe a top 5 late frost as well.  Add in high elevation snow...and it is time for summer.  Rest of the garden goes in Wednesday.  

Check 1961. My grandfather recorded 30 and 32 on May 27th and 28th that year. Latest likely frost was 33 on June 3rd 1956. We also had a 39 on June 2nd. The high was only 52 on the 2nd. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Check 1961. My grandfather recorded 30 and 32 on May 27th and 28th that year. Latest likely frost was 33 on June 3rd 1956. We also had a 39 on June 2nd. The high was only 52 on the 2nd. 

Have you ever turned your records over to MRX or at least asked them if they want them? I’d be interested in your mean temps compared to Knoxville over the past 30 years.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great info, @John1122, as always!  

TRI should set its third record low this morning as it is 35F at the airport.  36 is the record.  TYS is much warmer likely due to a different(less cold) air mass sliding through this AM to my SW.  The overall low for May of 30(which was set and tied several times during the last half century) still stands - thankfully.  The lowest we got with this air mass was 32 on two different night.  Still, three record lows is pretty impressive, and some of those records which fell were long standing.  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Great info, @John1122, as always!  

TRI should set its third record low this morning as it is 35F at the airport.  36 is the record.  TYS is much warmer likely due to a different(less cold) air mass sliding through this AM to my SW.  The overall low for May of 30(which was set and tied several times during the last half century) still stands - thankfully.  The lowest we got with this air mass was 32 on two different night.  Still, three record lows is pretty impressive, and some of those records which fell were long standing.  

TYS actually tied the record low of 39 this morning.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, @Wurbus.  You all must have warmed up right at dawn when I looked.  You are right...that is not warm.

TRI will finish nearly seven degrees below normal through the first 11 days of May.  8 of the first twelve days had lows in the 30s.  Temps during the last 6 days have averaged roughly 13 degrees below normal.   Average temp so far this month is 54.1.  Compare that with March which was 53.3, and that is is wild.  Now, obviously this warm wx is going to shrink those anomalies some in regards to the norms, but an impressively cold air mass(historical as well) to begin the month of May.   

It would be interesting to see if a frost has been recorded in June for TRI.  Looks like the airport recorded 38 during 1966 on two separate days early in that month.  I would bet some low elevation valleys saw frost on those two days.  The airmass during May 2002 for TRI was maybe the most impressively cold air mass of my lifetime for May.  That year had five straight record lows and has the latest below freezing temp recorded at TRI on May 22 at 31 degrees.   What is interesting is that I got married in late June of that same year.  We went to Fenway for a ballgame during early July.  We absolutely roasted...The weather that year flipped on a dime along the coast.  Got very hot.  Went back many years later with our kids, and the night was near perfect.  The Red Sox rallied late in the 9th with perfect temps and won the game.  They won in 02 as well.  Nomah' knocked in the winning run in that one if I remember correctly.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3.4 is falling fast .The MJO by the Euro is going to get strong into P8 and with possible KW and RW towards the end of the month,this should continue to pound the cold subsurface to the surface east of the IDL.Not sure i agree with the new experimental JAMSTEC with the oceans into summer.If its right tho towards fall we would be looking at a -PDO and also the NA/Tripole would really cool down into  into fall so you'd have a +NOA into winter more likely,maybe some help with the EPO but JAMSTEC looks like crap next winter right now,

SINTEX_F_Familiy_Climate_Prediction_|JAMSTEC.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/16/2020 at 7:53 PM, jaxjagman said:

3.4 is falling fast .The MJO by the Euro is going to get strong into P8 and with possible KW and RW towards the end of the month,this should continue to pound the cold subsurface to the surface east of the IDL.Not sure i agree with the new experimental JAMSTEC with the oceans into summer.If its right tho towards fall we would be looking at a -PDO and also the NA/Tripole would really cool down into  into fall so you'd have a +NOA into winter more likely,maybe some help with the EPO but JAMSTEC looks like crap next winter right now,

SINTEX_F_Familiy_Climate_Prediction_|JAMSTEC.png

Nothing new about a plus NAO anymore in winter....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, until the AMO flips...no reason to look for consistent -NAO winters.  We will get a few from time to time, but not under this Atlantic set-up.  

PNA/EPO and Pacific SST are driving the bus right now and can be accentuated by a -NAO for sure(when it shows up).  Several more years before the Atlantic has a favorable AMO.  Right now(if I remember correctly), the AMO turned very hostile over the winter.

Man, glad for the downslope this week in NE TN.  WNC bout to get hammered by rain!  @Met1985

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, until the AMO flips...no reason to look for consistent -NAO winters.  We will get a few from time to time, but not under this Atlantic set-up.  

PNA/EPO and Pacific SST are driving the bus right now and can be accentuated by a -NAO for sure(when it shows up).  Several more years before the Atlantic has a favorable AMO.  Right now(if I remember correctly), the AMO turned very hostile over the winter.

Man, glad for the downslope this week in NE TN.  WNC bout to get hammered by rain!  @Met1985

Yes sir! Looks like anywhere from 3 to possibly 10 inches of rain the next 5 days. We caught a bit of a dry nice spell but this week is going to be pretty rainy...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After the closed low fest, hot summer SER and humid with all the left over ground moisture. Then blowtorch next winter. See you in April 2021.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man, I could use some summer.  I don't like excessive heat(which may be on its way), but this cold/rainy stuff during late May is growing old.  As for next winter, if we are going to torch I just hope this Nina goes moderate to strong and cools the Pacific.  We have done well during winters that follow those types of events.  This winter I have very low expectations on the front end.  Not many signals pointing towards a cold winter at all.  Well, other than seasonal forecasting has been fickle of late.  

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The wet has been nuts. A THIRD in a row record rainfall year is within reach in some spots. Rainfall needs to be .4" above normal each of the months the rest of the year. That is not yet a high probability outcome. However a tropical cyclone could nearly clinch it - barring a severe flash drought. NUTS!

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

The wet has been nuts. A THIRD in a row record rainfall year is within reach in some spots. Rainfall needs to be .4" above normal each of the months the rest of the year. That is not yet a high probability outcome. However a tropical cyclone could nearly clinch it - barring a severe flash drought. NUTS!

 

Yeah it has been an amazing year so far. Many over here in WNC are almost 15 inches above normal this year already.  We are on another record setting year for precipitation. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah it has been an amazing year so far. Many over here in WNC are almost 15 inches above normal this year already.  We are on another record setting year for precipitation. 

Some of the stations have been rather impressive so far this year

Southeast_Climate_Perspectives_Map_Southeast_Regional_Climate_Center.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like a warming period possibly upcoming with heights rising into the Northern Sea of Japan today then into the Kuril Islands tomorrow this should set up the stage for AN temps upcoming with heights rising into the plains and OV,lower to mid 90's look reasonable to me for some portions of the Valley,this is long range more into next weekend and first of the following  week

ECMWF_Model_Tropical_Tidbits (2).png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And with AAM sinking, textbook would be SER. However that looks disrupted by yet another closed low. Who cares if it's tropical or not? Same old same old 2020. Still looks hot over our region though.

And an unseasonably deep trough from the Rockies into the Plains gets wasted again if all those progs are right. This could have been a bonkers year, but almost doesn't count.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

95 is the record here today,HRRR shows us tying this this afternoon.Not sure it will happen or not.Heat Index is at 95 right now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Top of this page is a freeze warning....And today my car reading was 101F.  My 72 hours of spring was nice while it lasted.  Real feel was 97 on the almighty iPhone.  Summer?  Yes.  Furnace?  No.  

Great thing is a reasonably powerful cool front will plow into the East over the next few days.  I must admit...I was jealous seeing 8" of snow in WY and MT.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Top of this page is a freeze warning....And today my car reading was 101F.  My 72 hours of spring was nice while it lasted.  Real feel was 97 on the almighty iPhone.  Summer?  Yes.  Furnace?  No.  

Great thing is a reasonably powerful cool front will plow into the East over the next few days.  I must admit...I was jealous seeing 8" of snow in WY and MT.  

Mods have been hinting at several fronts making it past Tennessee during the month of June. Crazyness

 

 

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.