Late Spring / Summer 2020 Thread

[Carvers Gap]

On 4/21/2020 at 7:26 PM, Stovepipe said:

Even here in the central valley, I will not be putting warm season stuff in the ground before May ever again.  This has been too much stress and hassle.  Lesson learned.

I hear you.  I finally broke down and built a mini-hoop house.  Some would call it a taller row tunnel.  I stashed my plants in there.  Been covering potatoes as I don't want them set back.  Everything else is good.  But the cooler weather is slowing things down this season.  We have been really spoiled with longer growing seasons the past few years.   This will be a tough early season for warmer crops.  Even today, we are forecast to get to near 70 but feels like a cold, drizzly day during winter so far.  

[Met1985]

On 4/23/2020 at 9:47 AM, Carvers Gap said:

I hear you.  I finally broke down and built a mini-hoop house.  Some would call it a taller row tunnel.  I stashed my plants in there.  Been covering potatoes as I don't want them set back.  Everything else is good.  But the cooler weather is slowing things down this season.  We have been really spoiled with longer growing seasons the past few years.   This will be a tough early season for warmer crops.  Even today, we are forecast to get to near 70 but feels like a cold, drizzly day during winter so far.  

Yeah we had another 30 degree low here on this side of the mountains with more cold weather coming in again. Looks like an up and down pattern the next few weeks. 

[Carvers Gap]

It is fairly amazing how different this April has been in comparison to last year at TRI.  Up to this point this April, we have had 6 days above 70 degrees.  We will likely add one more day tomorrow, but that is it.  Last year we had ~20 days above 70 with four days over 80(including two days in the mid 80s) for the entire month.  The last day below freezing last year was April 3rd.  This year it is April 19th.   April of 2019 truly felt like summer as the month progressed.  This year, we have had days that felt more like late February as the month has progressed.  We are still just a mere .2 of a degree warmer than the average temp for all of March 2020.  The polar vortex that was so strong during all of winter spelled trouble at some point during spring.  It did not take rocket science to gather the outcome at some point was going to be BN temps.  Some days this spring have been nearly 25 degrees colder than the same day last year.    One way both are similar is with generous amounts of rainfall.   And now we await for the spigot to be turned-off during late summer or early fall as La Nina is forecast to be potentially form and may build to moderate levels(see the ENSO thread).   It will be interesting to see how the La Nina behaves with the temperature gradient in the Pacific ocean so warm right now.   Snow has not been an uncommon event above 5,000' as well.   In Lord of the Rings, there is the famous conversation about second breakfast.  This year, we have had second March.

[Carvers Gap]

Trying to decide when to plant my warm weather crops.  I really want to drop them in the ground this weekend, but the 12z GFS pretty much sucks(not the model...just the weather).  At 240, it has snow in eastern Sullivan County on May 9th!  I know, day 10...but that cold signal has been there for a few runs.  The problem with waiting is that disease like blight shows up in July.  If tomatoes get planted late, blight will wipe them out later in the season here in the humid valley areas.  I had quit looking at modeling until @tnweathernut sent me the cold news this morning.  If we plant late and then get drought during July, very bad combo for producing peppers and tomatoes.   If I don't plant this weekend, I am going to have to nurse these plants along in tight quarters for another week in the hoop house.  

[John1122]

It was incredibly windy today before the rain moved in, it was rattling my roof at times.  

Snow has happened here around May 9th/10th. My grandfather always told the story of snow flattening knee high corn one May to the tune of 9 inches. This would have been at some point in the 1910s.

[Carvers Gap]

The EPS today backed off a little on the cold next week, but the 18z GFS is straight cold towards the end of next week.  Multiple frosts being depicted well into the eastern valley by next weekend and into the LR.  This would be past the frost free date for my area, and would be a great time for the GFS to be wrong.  That likely means about a two week delay in putting in my garden.  Summer stuff will be planted 2-3 weeks late this year.  Going to be a much shorter growing season this year - at least on the front end.  With Nina "never ending summer" on tap for fall, I should be able to make that up.  

[Carvers Gap]

@nrgjeff, does the 6zGFS look too cold for late next week TR/F/S?  Euro and CMC are nearly 5-10 degrees warmer.  Or does the GFS have the hot(in this case cold) hand?  

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting nugget from MRX this morning...

Temperature wise, it will be a cool day end to April to say the
least. Afternoon highs will run 10-15 degrees cooler than average
for this time of year. We might actually be close to some record
low max temperature values this afternoon. Chattanooga in the
south will likely be too warm (forecast to be in the mid 60s with
a record low-max in the upper 50s), but the northern part of the
forecast area will be very close to record territory today. The
record low-max at Tri-Cities is 59 degrees, which is exactly what
we`re forecasting. I`ve included a short table below for the
calendar day record low max temperatures for April 30th if you`re
curious where the climate sites will be at today.

Daily Record Low Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge
04-30   58(1925)       51(1925)       59(1978)       61(1978)

 

[Carvers Gap]

Last year's high on April 30th was 84 at TRI!  We will be nearly 25 degrees cooler today.  That is crazy as we might not get out of the 50s one year later on the same date.  The record high for this date is 89.  So, a forecast high of 59 is on the other end of that spectrum.

[nrgjeff]

GFS is probably wrong - though it's been consistent between runs.

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

@nrgjeff, does the 6zGFS look too cold for late next week TR/F/S?  Euro and CMC are nearly 5-10 degrees warmer.  Or does the GFS have the hot(in this case cold) hand?  

I know it can score coups in cold weather patterns. However it's driven by the track of a single system; so, I'll stick with my default GFS fade.

Overall I'm getting a little nervous about May in the Plains. However the first two weeks are not my concern. I need a change-up for late May.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

GFS is probably wrong - though it's been consistent between runs.

I know it can score coups in cold weather patterns. However it's driven by the track of a single system; so, I'll stick with my default GFS fade.

Overall I'm getting a little nervous about May in the Plains. However the first two weeks are not my concern. I need a change-up for late May.

Thanks very much for the insight!  The Euro and CMC have been hinting at temps in the low 40s.  However, with the GFS putting temps into the low to mid 30s...that means I have to drag the tarps out of the shed again!  LOL.  I just couldn't find any support for those really cold GFS solutions.  Upper 30s we can handle in the garden.  Mid 30s get really sketchy in areas where there are dips in the surface.   I tend to lean towards the Euro on this one.  12z GFS is already warmer for Thursday next week.

[John1122]

Temp is currently holding at 53 degrees here, which would be as low a high as I can find here in the last 80 years for April 30th.

[Carvers Gap]

Put this in the obs thread on accident...The 6z GFS continues to scare home gardeners everywhere for next weekend.  It may or may not be right - but that is impressive cold being depicted.  Fortunately, it is not very good at that range.   It now has a hard freeze for NE TN with heavy frost into north GA on Sunday I think.  It has temps in the TRI in the mid 20s.  The Euro Weeklies (yesterday evening)for next weekend also turned quite chilly w/ -9f departures for NE TN and -7F departures over the Central Valley.  The 0z Euro OP is not on board with that(GFS) kind of cold.  It has trended colder, but I can't find anything below 40 in E TN.  Higher elevations in southwest VA seem especially at risk with this set-up and likely small towns in western NC at higher elevations.  Normally, this upcoming weekend is a big weekend for gardeners to get warm crops in the ground.  I am probably going to have to stagger planting so that I don't lose everything with a clear night and snap frost.   I have already done some of that.  If we were to take the GFS and Euro and split the difference...that is still a couple of cold nights next weekend.  The problem for many of us is that you can't keep plants indefinitely in containers.  Hopefully, 12z and 0z back-off.  For now, there is a growing signal of a "close call" next weekend in the valleys of NE TN.  This would be a great time to plant with 4-5 really warm days coming up.  That would get plants established.  If next weekend (and that week after) remain well BN, the growing season may push well into the third week of May - a full month later than last year.  

[Carvers Gap]

Sure hoping the 12z GFS is off its rocker.  At 210 it is advertising all-time record lows for TRI with lows well into the 20s in the valleys and teens in the mountains.   The bad thing is that temps would be well below freezing for many hours.  That would literally kill all foliage on trees right now.  Oh, and did I forget to mention it has light snow for NE TN?  Not sure I have ever seen the model that cold.  Unless my eyes are fooling me, temps would be nearly 30 degrees below normal for much of the eastern 2/3 of TN.  Crap.  I really don't like the GFS.  

[Stovepipe]

Man, 2020 is relentless.

[Carvers Gap]

For posterity.  Departures from normal.  It is day 9 so who knows, right?  However, worth keeping an eye out right now as many are planting or have crops in the ground already.  Rare to see that kind of output on a model.

[Carvers Gap]

Before hitting the panic button, it is going to have to have some support from other modeling at 12z before I believe it.  We have been here many times with the GFS.  It just gives me incredible pause as sometimes it can get lucky.  Will update later after the Euro.  So far, the Canadian is not remotely that cold.  If I gamble(and set plants out) and it is right, we would lose months of hard work getting plants ready.  OTH, if I wait, plants won't start producing fruit until prim blight times.

Edit:  The GEM is nearly 15 degrees colder than its previous run.  Temps in the mid 30s for Sunday(the 10th) morning so far in NE TN...and not done dropping yet.  Even those temps would begin to challenge all-time record lows. Update: Dang, the 12z GEM has temps in the low 30s over NE TN.   31 IMBY on that run.  That would be several hours at our below freezing in NE TN.  If the Euro folks like the GEM, I am going to hold off putting anything else in the ground.

[Carvers Gap]

The GEM has lows the following Monday in the mid 20s for NE TN.  Areas of Knox Co would be in the 20s as well with downtown in the mid 30s.  Anyway,  plenty of time for that to change as that is out there in time.  Just a heads up.  Very bizarre to see two models now showing what would be a record setting event on consecutive nights.  Let's hope the Euro holds.  Update to follow later this afternoon.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro OP had cooled by 5-6 degrees on Sunday(the 10th) and is nearly 15 degrees cooler for the night before.  In NE TN they have gone from lows in the 50s on Saturday night(9th) to lows in the upper 30s in NE TN.  Essentially, we went from no threat whatsoever in NE TN to patchy frost on Saturday and Sunday evenings next weekend.  It didn't cave, but that was a massive bend.

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro OP had cooled by 5-6 degrees on Sunday(the 10th) and is nearly 15 degrees cooler for the night before.  In NE TN they have gone from lows in the 50s on Saturday night(9th) to lows in the upper 30s in NE TN.  Essentially, we went from no threat whatsoever in NE TN to patchy frost on Saturday and Sunday evenings next weekend.  It didn't cave, but that was a massive bend.

Yeah the 12z EURO has cooled a lot compared to previous runs. Could be a start to a big cold trend...

[Carvers Gap]

39 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the 12z EURO has cooled a lot compared to previous runs. Could be a start to a big cold trend...

Yeah, that caught my attention.  I was going to plant this weekend...now I am heading to Lowe's to find the material for about 40' of temporary hoop house.  That will be tricky as I won't put the plastic on while we have these hot temps.  I will wait until ~Thursday and put the plastic on, but get the hoops in place this weekend.  The airmass being shown on the Euro is 10-20 degrees below normal.  I guess this is what happens when the PV wraps up to record levels and doesn't release cold on time!  LOL - well not really laughing.  Let's hope and pray that look modifies as it would be absolutely devastating to regional farmers in NE TN and W NC with strawberries already fruited.  The plants will be fine, but the berries would potentially be burned with temps that low.  Need to catch a break on this one.  I have plants ready to go in this weekend.  Going to have to coax them along for another ten days or so.  Hate to be making decision based on a model 7-8 days out, but TR and FR are no gimme right now.

[Carvers Gap]

I should add that Knoxville is borderline on the Euro, but folks down there will need to keep an eye out.  I will assume the GFS is a cold outlier, but even the warmer models are trouble if they cool just a tad more for the Central Valley.  NE TN, SW VA, SE KY, the Plateau, and W NC need to really keep a close eye on the situation.  Middle TN is not out of the woods either.  This is a really pain in the neck BTW.  I take no joy in discussing this whatsoever.  None.  Just discussing this as a courtesy.  Seeds are tough to find right now as are some plants.  Don't want to waste them.

[Carvers Gap]

A blend of the 12z Euro, GEM, and the GFS still results in all-time record lows(for May) being challenged next weekend in some areas.  Fingers crossed for moderation.

[Stovepipe]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I should add that Knoxville is borderline on the Euro, but folks down there will need to keep an eye out.  I will assume the GFS is a cold outlier, but even the warmer models are trouble if they cool just a tad more for the Central Valley.  NE TN, SW VA, SE KY, the Plateau, and W NC need to really keep a close eye on the situation.  Middle TN is not out of the woods either.  This is a really pain in the neck BTW.  I take no joy in discussing this whatsoever.  None.  Just discussing this as a courtesy.  Seeds are tough to find right now as are some plants.  Don't want to waste them.

I've got around 60 plants that are badly root bound in cups.  I'm going to have to risk it and get these in the ground this weekend, otherwise they'll be ruined anyway.  Plant seeds in February they said.  You'll get jump start on the season they said.  Never again.

[John1122]

Those 30 degree departures here would put me in the lower 20s. My average low for early May is around 51.  

[Carvers Gap]

54 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I've got around 60 plants that are badly root bound in cups.  I'm going to have to risk it and get these in the ground this weekend, otherwise they'll be ruined anyway.  Plant seeds in February they said.  You'll get jump start on the season they said.  Never again.

I did the same thing!  I had to buy some 7" cow pots to save mine and build a hoop house.  LOL.   Even those are needing planted.  Not sure I have 10 more days, but TRI looks nasty for next weekend.  If I was in Knoxville, my decision would probably be different.   Right now, I have to decide if I can get ten more days out of those plants in containers.  Maybe.  I have some great looking potatoes already in the ground.  I hate to see those get set back.  They will come back if frozen, but hate to see them get burned.  I may build a hoop house over those.  Nothing fancy.  Just PVC, rebar, and plastic.  Let's hope this modifies!!!!!

[Carvers Gap]

Positive trend and a step in the right direction on the 18z GFS is it has removed the hard freeze...Still has plenty of frost for NE TN though.  I still don't like seeing the cold trend on all modeling today.  Really hoping climatology sticks a fork in those extreme solutions.   Light frost we can work around.  A mid-May hard freeze is nearly impossible to work around.  My solution may just be adding a temporary hoop house for my tomatoes that go into the ground.  

[jaxjagman]

Euro shows maybe some Rex block into the Baffin/Greenland in the long range,we couldnt get this look in winter but now into spring

[jaxjagman]

 

[Carvers Gap]

I think in NE TN, Sunday and Monday(10th and 11th) are the times we will have to watch.  The Euro again cooled.  The 6z GFS again has a freeze on Sunday morning.  The EPS is now quite cold.  One week from Sunday, temps over night are forecast to be nearly 15-30 degrees below normal.  We need to pull for the Euro as it is just patchy frost over NE TN.  The GFS is a hard freeze w damaging frost reaching into northern Alabama and Georgia w Middle and East TN.  The 0z GEM is in in the 6z GFS camp for Sunday AM with the freezing line reaching well south of Knoxville.  Very much hoping this does not verify as the GEM and GFS show what would be an historically cold air mass on Sunday and Monday mornings(one week).  That is absolutely NOT set in stone as we all know the rules about modeling this far out.  Again, I know that this year gardening has a much more significant role in our society(and rightfully so)...so just trying to keep people in the know and let them make their own decisions.  For those of us(stovepipe and me), we have plants that won't fair well for another week...so tough decision.  The frost doesn't worry me as I can just cover plants.  The potential freeze over NE TN is the concern, especially if it is 4-6 hours in duration.