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Carvers Gap

Late Spring / Summer 2020 Thread

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Have a feeling this thread ends hot and dry.  Hope I am wrong.  Right now it is raining nearly every day.  Feels like coastal Maine.  For the historical record, many of us are stuck inside anyway due to COVID19 restrictions and voluntary social distancing.  Many are working from home.  These are trying times.  I hope by the end of this thread, this pandemic is over and we are again worried about wx maps, future winter patterns, and ENSO.  This thread will be primarily for pattern discussion both in the near and short term.  If your family has a need due to the illness, send us a PM or put it on blast in the banter thread.  

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-NAO incoming? Some of the globals are hinting into next week but there is clearly an NAO influencing beast near Iceland showing up in the recent ECMWF and Ukie runs. The 12z Ukie is nuts. 1058hpa and 600dm vacuum buster incoming..

IMG_20200323_163340.thumb.jpg.94a7a675d9bd08f0938f0279433f3eeb.jpg

 

Edit: Will be interesting to see if this shifts and locks down into a classic Greenland block or splits anticyclonically into a +NAO/N. Euro block. Therefore, I may've been a wee bit premature. I suppose -NAO isn't necessarily a sure thing.

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Euro might be playing a April fools joke on yall in the east with a potent system cutting through around Birmingham that gives yall some wrap around snow

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Hopefully the -NAO is a joke too. Might as well get on with spring. Let the SER give us some sun and Vitamin D!

Long range I have to favor a persistent SER. TNI might get backwards for severe early / SER late spring. However, the broad forcing is already acting Nina. 

So after electric load goes on holiday, maybe utilities can make some money back this summer. HOT and HUMID - Dry heat is off the table after all this rain.

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Hopefully the -NAO is a joke too. Might as well get on with spring. Let the SER give us some sun and Vitamin D!

Long range I have to favor a persistent SER. TNI might get backwards for severe early / SER late spring. However, the broad forcing is already acting Nina. 

So after electric load goes on holiday, maybe utilities can make some money back this summer. HOT and HUMID - Dry heat is off the table after all this rain.

Never a good sign when the power goes out while I am typing.  LOL.  It is back on now.  Good news with the bold...about the only time I would say that.   Bring it on.  Makes it a huge fight for garden disease(especially tomatoes), but humidity suppresses some illnesses due to droplets not being able to travel as far.   Think dry for late summer?  I think maybe in NE TN.  We have tended to be really dry up here during La Ninas.   Also, thinking moderate or strong for the La Nina?  We are long over due for a strong one.  

And no to the -NAO...

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Late summer drought (perhaps flash repeat) would not shock me. Risk of sooner, but depends on if SER is dirty or clean. Until then pretty wet, yuck!

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17 hours ago, Stovepipe said:

What are y'all's thoughts on frost at this point based on modeling?  Asking for a friend.

Probably low but that might depend on where they at?Winds look like they might be blowing from the N around 5kts at TYS April fools morn with temps in the mid to upper 30's,higher elevations should still  see snow maybe

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17 hours ago, Stovepipe said:

What are y'all's thoughts on frost at this point based on modeling?  Asking for a friend.

Man, one clear, cold night with no wind...you know how it goes.   I built a small hoop house that is about 4' tall.  Dropped in 10 tomato plants this weekend under it.    Just no freezes please!  I think we still get a frost or two. Just depends on how hard one wants to work to cover up plants.  LOL.  The 18z GEFS has backed down somewhat(surprised?) on its long term cold outlook.  I cut my WxBell account...just too much money for d10-15 of the EPS and Weeklies.  If anyone wants to share the Weeklies on TR or M, it would be appreciated and/or d10-15 EPS descriptions at 500.  Don't really need maps, just an in general sentence or two about the model.  Also, does anyone have an affordable option just for the EPS?  I am talking maybe ten bucks a month.  

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If you want to use short range models for free the best site to use is this https://weathermodels.com/ Click on the link at the bottom where it says try it for free,then click model,pain is the ass to navigate but its free

 

Edit:Thats not the greatest tool in the shed,just noticed it dont update a day or two earlier :(

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Oh if only this pattern had been in place a few months ago. Insult to injury I suppose. Now just wanting this to break fast and we can get on with Spring.

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Count me in the weenie group. When that low passed to our south I was about to put a shoe through my TV.

Next couple systems look weak and/or positive tilt. That's good to keep severe wx away from the already battered South.

GFS and Euro both want to tee up Easter weekend, but it's Day 10.  MJO / KWs. are still muddled with two separate areas going. North American modeling will probably be flaky.

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The 12z GFS has snow at 252 in NE TN...took a bit of a break from the weather this week as we home school.  Nice to know some things don't change.  Like the setting of the sun every day, the GFS is still snowing at d+10.

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GFS forgot there's no early season baseball games to snow out, lol! Though the Euro has jumped on. Is that some delayed April fool's joke? Happy Palm Sunday!

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Yeah, if the N steam energy ends up verifying a bit faster and the southern bit across the SW slower, they could play together. 

As Windspeed's quote above says, I guess it's not out of realm of possibility that the northern might be quicker and the southern one gets hung up a bit. 

giphy.gif

Beautiful pattern on the EPS too. Will be interesting to see if any EPS members get it done. 

giphy.gif

 

Normally by this time of year I'm out of the snow zone, but would be kind of fun to have something besides COVID to chase on the interwebs. I'm fortunate enough to be able to work from home, so I say bring it on. 

That is until power goes out and all the food we have ferreted away have spoils... 

But I guess it would be fitting to finally get a good SE interior snowstorm, when it's harder to enjoy it. 

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah, if the N steam energy ends up verifying a bit faster and the southern bit across the SW slower, they could play together. 

As Windspeed's quote above says, I guess it's not out of realm of possibility that the northern might be quicker and the southern one gets hung up a bit. 

giphy.gif

Beautiful pattern on the EPS too. Will be interesting to see if any EPS members get it done. 

giphy.gif

 

Normally by this time of year I'm out of the snow zone, but would be kind of fun to have something besides COVID to chase on the interwebs. I'm fortunate enough to be able to work from home, so I say bring it on. 

That is until power goes out and all the food we have ferreted away have spoils... 

But I guess it would be fitting to finally get a good SE interior snowstorm, when it's harder to enjoy it. 

Sounds like you are in the market for a quiet generator.  :thumbsup:

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sounds like you are in the market for a quiet generator.

Indeed. The people who owned my house before had one and there is still an electrical hook up for it, but alas, I didn't foresee our current situation so spent building a fence instead. I may check out home depot tomorrow (weekly run into town). 

More of an observation, but the air quality is night and day here in Morgan county when compared to my old place just under I40 in Knoxville!

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GFS scored a coup with this stretch of  in-and-out troughs in rapid repetition.  It nailed them on the operational and on the ensemble.  Might be an example of "a broken clock being right twice a day though" as it is always has cold.  We would have scored multiple times with this pattern during winter IMHO.

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Just now, Carvers Gap said:

GFS scored a coup with this stretch of  in-and-out troughs in rapid repetition.  It nailed them on the operational and on the ensemble.  Might be an example of "a broken clock being right twice a day though" as it is always has cold.  We would have scored multiple times with this pattern during winter IMHO.

The GFS has been doing very well in mid range pattern recognition recently.  The EURO has been caving to the GFS recently more than I can remember it used too. 

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3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The GFS has been doing very well in mid range pattern recognition recently.  The EURO has been caving to the GFS recently more than I can remember it used too. 

Good point.  Maybe it is less of a coup and more of a seasonal trend.  Seems like the GFS has had the advantage during the last two transitional time frames(last fall and this spring).  Euro just has trouble during the shoulder seasons when the patterns change-up.  The GFS really did well last November.   

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20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Good point.  Maybe it is less of a coup and more of a seasonal trend.  Seems like the GFS has had the advantage during the last two transitional time frames(last fall and this spring).  Euro just has trouble during the shoulder seasons when the patterns change-up.  The GFS really did well last November.   

Yep you are right. Also the GFS did very well during our little events this cold season for storm recognition also. At one point the Euro was like 0 for 5 this season in recognizing our little events.  It has stuggled in the SE the past several months it seems like. 

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April has fallen BN for temps and MA normal for precip at TRI.  There have been multiple snow events in the mountains, though light.  I have had 6 frosts and/or freezes of varying degrees IMBY.  Tops of my potatoes got a bit burned as I gambled and lost one night.  They have rebounded quickly though.  The biggest problem is BN temps combined with heavy rainfall have suppressed soil temps.  I would guess we are a couple of weeks behind right now in comparison with where we should be in planting gardens stuff.  May just have to make a "go" of it.   

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With the QBO at -4.36 for March, it does not shock me that things have turned cooler.  The QBO did not stall as some predicted.  It moved in a fairly predictable pattern and is now firmly established.  Looks like we might get into early winter(at least) with the QBO negative, but likely rising by that point which is not great.  But we might steal a couple of good months early before the transition works against us.  Either way, very blocky look over NA during the next couple of weeks at least - just what lovers of summer wanted to hear said no one ever.  

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Ensembles today depict ~BN temps for much of the next two and a half weeks.   I normally put my tomatoes in the ground during the first week of May.  Not sure that is going to happen this year.  Early May may feel like mid-April at times.  Really hope that is wrong.  I have stuff ready to go in the ground.   I am not even sure that our chances for frost are gone for NE TN by that time.  Frost free is usually around May 8 for my house...we may push past that date this year.

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7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ensembles today depict ~BN temps for much of the next two and a half weeks.   I normally put my tomatoes in the ground during the first week of May.  Not sure that is going to happen this year.  Early May may feel like mid-April at times.  Really hope that is wrong.  I have stuff ready to go in the ground.   I am not even sure that our chances for frost are gone for NE TN by that time.  Frost free is usually around May 8 for my house...we may push past that date this year.

Yeah the GFS keeps reloading the trough in the east over the next few weeks. Go figure its in April and not in January.  

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15 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the GFS keeps reloading the trough in the east over the next few weeks. Go figure its in April and not in January.  

Interestingly,  to date TRI's average temp is 53.3 for April which is also the exact same average for all of March.  Regarding April, max temps have been slightly higher and min temps slightly lower to this point.  

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On 4/20/2020 at 2:47 PM, John1122 said:

I never bother with tomatoes before the first week of May. Not uncommon to get to 31-32 during that time frame here. 

Even here in the central valley, I will not be putting warm season stuff in the ground before May ever again.  This has been too much stress and hassle.  Lesson learned.

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