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MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

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47 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Ehhh yellow is basically normal outside of mask regs up here, pretty much everything but sit down dining is rolling.

We are not yellow yet.  LOL .  But no entertainment places, hair cuts, tanning, etc...in yellow either.  They did just announce we are going yellow next Friday. Dauphin as well.

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Some counties are going green as well, which I didn't think I would see until the fall at the earliest.

I think fall is when they will going back to yellow and red!    I am telling my whole family to prepare as if we are going to do this all over again and if we do not it will just be good news. 

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39 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think fall is when they will going back to yellow and red!    I am telling my whole family to prepare as if we are going to do this all over again and if we do not it will just be good news. 

I can't wait for mandatory stay at home orders for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Amazon will be running 60 days behind on deliveries. 

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44 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Do you guys think the public will even accept another lockdown? I think it'll be a tough sell, unless there are massive casualties.

Once you lose someone in your family you learn to accept anything if it means no more losses.  Whether we have another lock down is up for question but unless an answer is found Covid could be the star of our winter next year.  Star meaning item most talked about. 

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Once you lose someone in your family you learn to accept anything if it means no more losses.  Whether we have another lock down is up for question but unless an answer is found Covid could be the star of our winter next year.  Star meaning item most talked about. 

I’m starting to know more and more people dealing with loss and one person I knew and used to fish with who passed away from covid so it’s definitely a rough deal.

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44 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

I’m starting to know more and more people dealing with loss and one person I knew and used to fish with who passed away from covid so it’s definitely a rough deal.

Sorry to hear about this. I guess we've been fortunate in our family/circle of friends. We've had a few positive cases, but all have recovered.

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22 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Sorry to hear about this. I guess we've been fortunate in our family/circle of friends. We've had a few positive cases, but all have recovered.

Thanks man and good to hear things are well. My family has been lucky so far in comparison with some of my coworkers and there’s. 

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2 hours ago, Voyager said:

Do you guys think the public will even accept another lockdown? I think it'll be a tough sell, unless there are massive casualties.

This will fundamentally change behavior until there is an annual vaccine available. 

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5 hours ago, Voyager said:

Some counties are going green as well, which I didn't think I would see until the fall at the earliest.

I expected it to let up in the summer due to the spread being limited because of temp, humidity and uv rays. We're probably going to go back to closures once october rolls around. And if we aren't taking precautions and all wearing masks it'll probably be worse than it was this spring. I'm not saying nobody will get covid in the summer but it'll be rarer just like the cold/flu. Back in 2009 my friends dad got swine flu in August lol so it's still a possibility but luckily swine flu was no worse than the normal flu.

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10 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

I’m starting to know more and more people dealing with loss and one person I knew and used to fish with who passed away from covid so it’s definitely a rough deal.

Sorry to hear you lost a friend.

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7 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I expected it to let up in the summer due to the spread being limited because of temp, humidity and uv rays. We're probably going to go back to closures once october rolls around. And if we aren't taking precautions and all wearing masks it'll probably be worse than it was this spring. I'm not saying nobody will get covid in the summer but it'll be rarer just like the cold/flu. Back in 2009 my friends dad got swine flu in August lol so it's still a possibility but luckily swine flu was no worse than the normal flu.

The only experience we have with something like this is 1918.  This could play out totally different but until we see that it will I think the safe bet is to assume there will be some similarities.

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GFS has backed off the extreme cold temps the first week of June but still shows historic lows in the lower 40's for the LSV.    Looks like MDT got to 40 in 1980 and 41 in 1961 as to challenging all time June records.

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4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Weren't you outside at all yesterday? Even though it was overcast and damp, I thought it felt quite tropical yesterday. 

It rained from 7 am until 6 pm on yesterday. Had almost an inch. 

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The GFS this morning is truly a historic cold start to June.  No 30's at this point but plenty of nights in the 40's and 2-3 days it stays at or below 60 all day in or near the LSV.   Of course there are clouds and plenty of North/NE winds involved though winds are out of the N/W on the panel below showing the approx highs for June 6.

image.png.f27f51999b5d9dbeed91136a1f13e5f6.png

 

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I'm really beginning to hate the Atlantic Ocean. It screws up more nice days with onshore flows, backdoor cold fronts, and storms than I care to imagine...

If only my wife were willing to move. I hate being STUCK in a location I despise because of someone else.

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I'm really beginning to hate the Atlantic Ocean. It screws up more nice days with onshore flows, backdoor cold fronts, and storms than I care to imagine...

If only my wife were willing to move. I hate being STUCK in a location I despise because of someone else.

That early June cold is not all Atlantic driven but like you said earlier you are keying on Late June :-)

 

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13 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Cooler east wind has arrived. Eastern Pa will likely be notably cooler tomorrow. Pittsburgh might make a run at the upper 80s while east of the Susky holds in the upper 60s to near 70.

GFS keeps the LSV in the mid 60's now.   Late Spring CAD event. 

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Fascinating temps even next week on the GFS.  Wed Afternoon sees Bangor, Maine in the 90's, Lancaster, PA- 72 and Athens, GA- 69.  Of course clouds involved again but still topsy turvey.  Hinting of a Low coming off the Fl Coast and trying to go Tropical at that time.

 

image.png.85b323d1b673763ae0f9cf0efb9b521c.png

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Fascinating temps even next week on the GFS.  Wed Afternoon sees Bangor, Maine in the 90's, Lancaster, PA- 72 and Atlanta, GA- 69.  Of course clouds involved again but still topsy turvey.  Hinting of a Low coming off the Fl Coast and trying to go Tropical at that time.

 

image.png.85b323d1b673763ae0f9cf0efb9b521c.png

The core of the ridge is centered to our north, likely why the NE region is seeing warmer temps. So even though we are in a southerly flow, the source region and placement of the ridge is not ideal for 90s+. Not to mention we have a cutoff low around the southern plains. Ideally I'd imagine we'd want warm anomalies to advect from that region into ours. Instead, we have cooler temps (compared to normal) in that region.

gfs_z500a_us_14.png

gfs_T2ma_us_14.png

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