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Hurricane Agnes

E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2020 OBS Thread

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60 mph wind advisory Monday posted this soon say what? From a Great Lakes low to boot. What did I say about strange weather.

 

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4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The SPC actually scaled back the slight risk for portions of NJ and placed them in a marginal risk for now. We will see if things get bumped back further north in later outlooks.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

day2otlk_0600.gif

Out of my subforum - but just an FYI - looks like there was an error. The outlook was amended about 1hr after being issued. Larger extent to risk area in your region.

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I like the York/Lancaster/Chester county areas as a potential hotspot for an elevated risk for a tornado tomorrow around 17z-20z. Models showing some supercells forming and rolling through the area. Hodographs are very curvy due to the insane shear and wind profile up above, the LCL looks to be around 400-500 meters which is favorable too. If any sun can pop out for a time and boost SBCAPE values, watch out. Could be an interesting time tomorrow. Oh, and check out the 12z NAM. Snow on wednesday?

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1 hour ago, Newman said:

I like the York/Lancaster/Chester county areas as a potential hotspot for an elevated risk for a tornado tomorrow around 17z-20z. Models showing some supercells forming and rolling through the area. Hodographs are very curvy due to the insane shear and wind profile up above, the LCL looks to be around 400-500 meters which is favorable too. If any sun can pop out for a time and boost SBCAPE values, watch out. Could be an interesting time tomorrow. Oh, and check out the 12z NAM. Snow on wednesday?

I saw that (for Wednesday)... is that a modified Wiggum rule effect?

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This has been the year of the the high wind watch/warning...currently a  warning. Received 2 text within a minute so NWS must mean business...lol. Crappy timing though as trash (cans) go out tonight....should be flying all over the place tomorrow.

62F

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High Wind Warning...

Quote

High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1225 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

DEZ001>003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ012-015>019-021-PAZ070-071-104-
106-130600-
/O.UPG.KPHI.HW.A.0001.200413T1000Z-200413T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.HW.W.0002.200413T1000Z-200413T2300Z/
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown,
Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, New Brunswick, Trenton,
Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Millville, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown,
Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
1225 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with 50 to 60 mph gusts
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey,
  southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central,
  northern and southern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday that
  could result in even stronger wind gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Was a degree warmer for a low here this morning compared to yesterday (36 vs 35) and it took a bit for the temps to creep up from that with the overcast that comes and goes with breaks of sun, but currently 66 and warming nicely now.

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Just watched Ch6/Accu weather, really going nuts w/the wind tomorrow w/a forecast of up to 70mph. I seen winds up to 50mph which is strong.....somewhat rare gust up to 60mph....but 70mph w/o a tropical storm is really rare. Considering a good dump of rain and the predicted winds stuff will come down.

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Just watched Ch6/Accu weather, really going nuts w/the wind tomorrow w/a forecast of up to 70mph. I seen winds up to 50mph which is strong.....somewhat rare gust up to 60mph....but 70mph w/o a tropical storm is really rare. Considering a good dump of rain and the predicted winds stuff will come down.

Weird because alot of the 10m wind charts are 25-30 nothing higher. I've seen 10m much more aggressive in the past. 

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41 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

^Storms to the SW coming up look strong but 60-70mph seems aggressive for our area.....I'm buying a kite.

You might wind up in New England if your "twine" is strong enough!

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Lol...FOX29 at 10pm w/Kathy Orr took it a step further. During her visual "bullet points" for tomorrow she had "gust up to 80mph". So basically some of us will experience a Cat1. My trash cans should be fine and kite flying should be a real blast.... 

80.jpg

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After 0.01" rain just before midnight yesterday (total precip for yesterday), am up to 1.12" this morning and coming down at a good clip - the heaviest being the past couple hours or so.

The winds have started to pick up now too.  Current temp is 59 with variable / light - moderate rain.

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Just now, penndotguy said:

pretty calm out here now, one gust 25mph so far hopefully we luck out and it’s not bad. 

I think there are 2 more events to come - lifting of a warm front (with associated precip) and then the arrival of the strong cold front with the possible severe thunderstorms later this afternoon I think.

nws-current-surface-map-04132020.gif

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Yeah, first round just about over. Solid rain, gusty but I don't think winds went above 25mph. Later today may be interesting though... 

60F

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