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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2020 OBS Thread


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4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The SPC actually scaled back the slight risk for portions of NJ and placed them in a marginal risk for now. We will see if things get bumped back further north in later outlooks.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

day2otlk_0600.gif

Out of my subforum - but just an FYI - looks like there was an error. The outlook was amended about 1hr after being issued. Larger extent to risk area in your region.

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I like the York/Lancaster/Chester county areas as a potential hotspot for an elevated risk for a tornado tomorrow around 17z-20z. Models showing some supercells forming and rolling through the area. Hodographs are very curvy due to the insane shear and wind profile up above, the LCL looks to be around 400-500 meters which is favorable too. If any sun can pop out for a time and boost SBCAPE values, watch out. Could be an interesting time tomorrow. Oh, and check out the 12z NAM. Snow on wednesday?

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1 hour ago, Newman said:

I like the York/Lancaster/Chester county areas as a potential hotspot for an elevated risk for a tornado tomorrow around 17z-20z. Models showing some supercells forming and rolling through the area. Hodographs are very curvy due to the insane shear and wind profile up above, the LCL looks to be around 400-500 meters which is favorable too. If any sun can pop out for a time and boost SBCAPE values, watch out. Could be an interesting time tomorrow. Oh, and check out the 12z NAM. Snow on wednesday?

I saw that (for Wednesday)... is that a modified Wiggum rule effect?

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High Wind Warning...

Quote

High Wind Warning


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1225 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

DEZ001>003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ012-015>019-021-PAZ070-071-104-
106-130600-
/O.UPG.KPHI.HW.A.0001.200413T1000Z-200413T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.HW.W.0002.200413T1000Z-200413T2300Z/
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown,
Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, New Brunswick, Trenton,
Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Millville, Media, Philadelphia, Norristown,
Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
1225 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with 50 to 60 mph gusts
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey,
  southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central,
  northern and southern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday that
  could result in even stronger wind gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Was a degree warmer for a low here this morning compared to yesterday (36 vs 35) and it took a bit for the temps to creep up from that with the overcast that comes and goes with breaks of sun, but currently 66 and warming nicely now.

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Just watched Ch6/Accu weather, really going nuts w/the wind tomorrow w/a forecast of up to 70mph. I seen winds up to 50mph which is strong.....somewhat rare gust up to 60mph....but 70mph w/o a tropical storm is really rare. Considering a good dump of rain and the predicted winds stuff will come down.

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Just watched Ch6/Accu weather, really going nuts w/the wind tomorrow w/a forecast of up to 70mph. I seen winds up to 50mph which is strong.....somewhat rare gust up to 60mph....but 70mph w/o a tropical storm is really rare. Considering a good dump of rain and the predicted winds stuff will come down.

Weird because alot of the 10m wind charts are 25-30 nothing higher. I've seen 10m much more aggressive in the past. 

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Just now, penndotguy said:

pretty calm out here now, one gust 25mph so far hopefully we luck out and it’s not bad. 

I think there are 2 more events to come - lifting of a warm front (with associated precip) and then the arrival of the strong cold front with the possible severe thunderstorms later this afternoon I think.

nws-current-surface-map-04132020.gif

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