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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are getting inside the range where  it’s becoming time to see actual hits and not just “nice trends” imo. Large shifts start to become less likely here on out. Yes the icon is “closer” but at some point soon the guidance will converge and the goal posts will narrow. Right now we are still outside those posts. I’d like to start seeing some op hits soon. If we don’t see any hits on op runs tonight this starts to become even less likely imo. 

I'd agree with this mostly. I might personally wait till 12z tomorrow.  Ops definitely becoming more weighted no doubt now

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We are getting inside the range where  it’s becoming time to see actual hits and not just “nice trends” imo. Large shifts start to become less likely here on out. Yes the icon is “closer” but at some point soon the guidance will converge and the goal posts will narrow. Right now we are still outside those posts. I’d like to start seeing some op hits soon. If we don’t see any hits on op runs tonight this starts to become even less likely imo. 
I've seen large shifts before inside the range but usually they end up screwing us lol
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The key right now is still the ensembles IMO. If they don't at least hold serve or improve in the next few runs this threat is cooked. Honestly, the NAM has my attention.

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Looking at the 12z Gefs 500s . Definitely some good looks in there . Remember the Eps actually is closer to working then the Gefs...too bad there's no individual Eps h5 plots . But that said . ...Gefs #P006, 12, 15 ,16 and a couple others could work 

f108.gif

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Sun angle :axe: this theory has failed miserably in the past .

I'd agree if it was late March but 1st week in March moderate to heavy rates will do the trick outside the heat sinks . We've seen that time after time even 70 degrees 2 days or 1 day before the storm . JMO

I think most probably would take trash can toppers at this point lol

 

I’d literally take a pile of trash piled up on my lawn just so I can watch my neighbor try and snowblow it. I mean what fantastic entertainment that would be!

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25 minutes ago, Ji said:

The phasing timing for this storm is awful for us

Who cares it would be like  1/2” even if it was cold smoke.  We need a much faster phase/capture and tucked in secondary to develop heavy banding to overcome the torched boundary. But I don’t mind because I’m uninterested in a cartopper from bands of light snow showers anyways.  March is go big or go home time for me. I’m purely chasing dynamic thump events at this point. 

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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

A blizzard on the fish. What a waste.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png

This is probably just that “close miss” I said was inevitable just to inflict the most pain possible (Although my money was on a perfect track rainstorm but there is time for that later). On the other hand I can see the complexity giving guidance issues and an argument to be made for a more tucked in secondary once the phase happens. One key could be a stronger SS wave that can creep further north so that the baroclinic zone isn’t wrecked and way out east when the NS dives in.  The NAM is likely wrong but if that was even close there would likely be a second “colder” round of precip from the coastal. The phasing is just starting at 84 on the NAM but it was likely to look good after. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is probably just that “close miss” I said was inevitable just to inflict the most pain possible (Although my money was on a perfect track rainstorm but there is time for that later). On the other hand I can see the complexity giving guidance issues and an argument to be made for a more tucked in secondary once the phase happens. One key could be a stronger SS wave that can creep further north so that the baroclinic zone isn’t wrecked and way out east when the NS dives in.  The NAM is likely wrong but if that was even close there would likely be a second “colder” round of precip from the coastal. The phasing is just starting at 84 on the NAM but it was likely to look good after. 

Nice points and thoughts . 

Do you think we could benefit from a bit more spacing between the Northeast storm near the 50/50 going into this time frame and our ns sw . Its evident on the 12z Eps there's more separation there compared to the Gefs . Hence ..."more hits"... I figured this could give our secondary more room  to amplify which gives us a better shot . Just one variable I was pondering .

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice points and thoughts . 

Do you think we could benefit from a bit more spacing between the Northeast storm near the 50/50 going into this time frame and our ns sw . Its evident on the 12z Eps there's more separation there compared to the Gefs . Hence ..."more hits"... I figured this could give our secondary more room  to amplify which gives us a better shot . Just one variable I was pondering .

A bigger help would be a further west dig from the NS. It’s diving in on top which acts to suppress the flow a bit under it until the phase. By then the initial wave escapes and the secondary almost assuredly will be too far northeast. A further west dig would force ridging ahead of it and allow the SS wave to come north and also allow a further southwest phase. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A bigger help would be a further west dig from the NS. It’s diving in on top which acts to suppress the flow a bit under it until the phase. By then the initial wave escapes and the secondary almost assuredly will be too far northeast. A further west dig would force ridging ahead of it and allow the SS wave to come north and also allow a further southwest phase. 

The gfs op at 12z and 18z had slight ticks east and less dig with the NS. As you have mentioned, got to have that stop soon or our chances will most likely be toast at any accumulating snow. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A bigger help would be a further west dig from the NS. It’s diving in on top which acts to suppress the flow a bit under it until the phase. By then the initial wave escapes and the secondary almost assuredly will be too far northeast. A further west dig would force ridging ahead of it and allow the SS wave to come north and also allow a further southwest phase. 

I feel like if that was going to happen we’d see it.  Seems the GFS, right or wrong, is fairly steady last 3 runs.  Hard to imagine a large shift at h5 this late in the game.  

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I feel like if that was going to happen we’d see it.  Seems the GFS, right or wrong, is fairly steady last 3 runs.  Hard to imagine a large shift at h5 this late in the game.  

EPS is very close to what we need. GFS not so much. 

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A bigger help would be a further west dig from the NS. It’s diving in on top which acts to suppress the flow a bit under it until the phase. By then the initial wave escapes and the secondary almost assuredly will be too far northeast. A further west dig would force ridging ahead of it and allow the SS wave to come north and also allow a further southwest phase. 

Thanks...definitely aware of the bolded.  I guess I'm thinking along with the pumping of heights from a further west dig more separation from the lower heights to the ne will also allow more pumping of heights in front . 

Pumping is good lol

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31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS is very close to what we need. GFS not so much. 

Gefs and Gfs used to have trouble with these setups if memory serves but the new op Gfs is definitely an overall better model so not sure anymore .I think the new Gefs system comes out this year I thought  i heard .

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12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I feel like if that was going to happen we’d see it.  Seems the GFS, right or wrong, is fairly steady last 3 runs.  Hard to imagine a large shift at h5 this late in the game.  

Well, our NS system is currently south of the Aleutian Islands. Still has a lot of real estate to cover. We've all seen crazier shifts happen with less lead time. 

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Well, our NS system is currently south of the Aleutian Islands. Still has a lot of real estate to cover. We've all seen crazier shifts happen with less lead time. 

Fair enough.  My work cancelled all travel until further notice.  I have the bandwidth to track this until we reach the cliff. 

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No one's really mentioned it but CMC, GFS and EURO all have a coastal idea with cold not that far off for the March 11-12 timeframe. A long shot but something to keep an eye on. Only10 days out now. GFS has been hinting at it for a couple days now.  

 

18z gefs for the timeframe. Not a bad signal 10 days out. 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_40.png

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z Gefs went the wrong way.  

Am I missing something? Are you referring to the fact that it seems to have consolidated around a more OTS solution? Doesn't seem that different at H5. Not a lot of outliers. We are inside of 4 days now. Which is when the GEFS begins to play follow the OP more often. Right? It's always been a long shot and I guess the 18z GEFS drives that home. 

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40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z Gefs went the wrong way.  

for march 12th? too far away to worry about that just yet

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The ss sw on the 18z Eps is definitely quicker ..outracing the NS this run and bit strung out . I didn't see anything else that was significant or worth mentioning. I'd think a stronger ss sw going fwd  would be slower and want to go poleward helping with any phasing ...so that's what I'm rooting for . A little early to cliff jump imo. 

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The ss sw on the 18z Eps is definitely quicker ..outracing the NS this run . I didn't see anything else that was significant or worth mentioning. I'd think a stronger ss sw going fwd  would be slower and want to go poleward helping with any phasing ...so that's what I'm rooting for . A little early to cliff jump imo. 

But it's march and we haven't gotten any snow all year...haha

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19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The ss sw on the 18z Eps is definitely quicker ..outracing the NS this run . I didn't see anything else that was significant or worth mentioning. I'd think a stronger ss sw going fwd  would be slower and want to go poleward helping with any phasing ...so that's what I'm rooting for . A little early to cliff jump imo. 

There was a trend weaker and north with the NS also.  It was a bunch of small almost imperceptible adjustments but they all were the wrong way which isn’t going to work when it was barely a marginal setup to begin with. Frankly the rule with these NS SS capture/phase setups is they almost always end up slower and too far northeast for us. This reminds me of the early March 2018 storm that teased us the day before. I knew that rule but having EVERY guidance 12 hours out showing snow here got me to abandon my pessimism with such setups.  I remember trying to convince myself with “ the euro is showing 8” just 18 hours out. It can’t be that wrong”. Then the hrrr started shifting east every hour. Then the run that night just hours before it should have started shifted everything 100 miles east.   Never again. I will never ever ever fee at all confident or even hopeful in these late NS phase scenarios until the fatties are falling. Yea once in a blue moon they work but 99% they tease us and end up northeast of us. 

ETA:  if the SS trends more amped that could change the equation here. A west dig in the NS too but that’s trending the wrong way and usually the adjustment there is northeast not southwest.  

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