RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. I thought that it would have been happening by now.....no spinning that. Persistence, especially anomalous, usually takes a little longer to unwind then anticipated or modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m more concerned about a whiff vs anything else.... this doesn’t scream cutting Rainer to me. Id put it at like 70% whiff 30% impact right now Yea. I’m like 60/40 for se zones and 80/20 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 If we discard icon and other stupid models and just consider the gfs (AAA), CMC (AAA), UKMET (MLB), Euro (MLB) we have our window. Icon is the equivalent of old class D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m more concerned about a whiff vs anything else.... this doesn’t scream cutting Rainer to me. Id put it at like 70% whiff 30% impact right now Doesn’t have to cut for that. Airmass is marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Doesn’t have to cut for that. Airmass is marginal. If the storm is worth anything, it’ll be snow. If it’s a weak mess, yeah it’ll be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Doesn’t have to cut for that. Airmass is marginal. It could be a light to moderate precip that is rain for coast. Though i think anything close enough that would put down big qpf is going to have a hard time being rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If the storm is worth anything, it’ll be snow. If it’s a weak mess, yeah it’ll be rain. Yea, if its rain, it won't be a big loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It could be a light to moderate precip that is rain for coast. Though i think anything close enough that would put down big qpf is going to have a hard time being rain. Yeah, the euro is a good example of that. I'm not trying to poo poo it...but we don't have big cold driving in from a 1040 high north of CAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Geps likes a big storm along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Geps likes a big storm along the coast A lot of huggers that track it over Bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 The AO is going go ruin it for the coast. Unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: The AO is going go ruin it for the coast. Unbelievable What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 AGW and I don't mean Anthropogenic Global Warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Northern stream not diving in as much on the 12z euro. So this won’t produce like 00z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 I think the euro will take a step back from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Actually looks like the Ukie for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 S System is weaker, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: S System is weaker, too. The 00z actually was all northern stream. Southern stream escaped on the 00z run but northern stream dug so much it spawned its own storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Euro is similar to gfs at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The 00z actually was all northern stream. Southern stream escaped on the 00z run but northern stream dug so much it spawned its own storm. Yea, I was just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 We NORLUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Euro is similar to gfs at 12z. It doesn’t look good to me, but I’m not an expert. A decidedly negative step at 12z today . Pretty meh outside of the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 It’s tryin though in the late stage. Downeast may do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: We NORLUN. Lol..good luck with that..that’s a fraud 5 most all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Darn it. Was hoping to jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I was just saying... It’ll take some time to figure out the S stream. Those cutoffs in Mexico are often a disaster on model guidance. GGEM is an example of the southern stream being captured. That’s ideally what we want. Don’t want to rely on solely northern stream imho given the progressive pattern. I feel like it could trend flatter/faster with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Wow that is text book NORLUN. Holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 The nrn stream still goes bonkers and cuts off to our south. That is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 That is about as textbook as you will see for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Right, lets have the perfectly timed perfect solution at d5/d6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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