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John1122

February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

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The NAM 2 of the last 3 runs has shown very favorable frontogenesis setting up over various parts of Tennessee, when it does the precip is here and in a good amount. The frontgenesis 700mb maps aren't out yet for the 18z run but I suspect we will see it here when they come out.

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I know that often times the northern extent of the precip field isn’t forecasted very well by models.  I don’t know if that would/will apply in this situation but it would be nice. I also think there’s room for this to trend even further to the NW.  We shall see..

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Great short term discussion.  To add to the LR, the 12z EPS and Weeklies(today's run) are not warm after d10.   Euro Weeklies imply that we will have BN temps pushing eastward on a regular basis through at least the first three weeks of March.  So we have the window this Thursday in which cold lasts from Feb 19-23.  We have the window which potentially begins around Feb 27 and lasts for an undetermined amount of time(might be longer than the 2-4 day windows that we have been getting lately).  Take with a huge grain of salt.   Pattern change?  Maybe, but more likely just a relaxation similar to last November.   

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50 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Frontogenesis at 700mb in purple. Also waa into the snowgrowth zone aiding moisture transportnamconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_us_47.png

 

Yeah definite looks  better than yesterday,even the Euro isnt as horrid as it was yesterday with the dry air

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5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

18z GFS looks north from 12z too. Not quite as nice as the NAM, but still quite a jump. 

For sure, I am not unconvinced that this doesn't fall as rain if we don't get strong enough rates.  Very much a northward trend since yesterday.  At some point that trend stops.  Need to see enough moisture but not WAA that is wicked strong.  I had said a few days I didn't want to be in the bullseye at 5-6 days out.  I am not sure we want to be in the bullseye with 72 hours out.  LOL.  Still a little wiggle room.  Just give me the big high and plenty of precip.  Heck, even slow it down a bit.  

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Anyone else notice the flow seems to be slowing across all models with each run, allowing the surface low to slowly be trending westward? If it keeps backing up, it may get interesting for the Eastern Valley. Last 12 runs of the GFS (NAM, ICON..etc also showing the same trend). Or could have been staring at models for too long lol.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh72_trend (1).gif

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Front end thump comes and goes for our area. It's looking good for southern areas. Crazy how those areas average the same or less snow than our general area but have just crushed our forum area year after snowwise. No idea why it's gotten so much harder to snow specifically in the Tennessee valley but other areas of the South seem to get about their normal amount every year.

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The latest GFS run shows an almost perfect storm near the end of the run - just great to see it at least modeled - just need it to come a little further north and it be just a touch colder - with that being in early March, that says something - hopefully it says we get snow lol

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6 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

Or could have been staring at models for too long lol.

I think I've looked at the interaction between the two pieces of energy over CA and the Rockies til I'm crosseyed. 

giphy.gif

Main piece is still the one off shore. I think it's basically go time now. Have to wait and see exactly how precip breaks out and how all that interaction plays out across the Rockies. 

 

NAM just keeps the energy together more, despite the squish coming in from the north. 

giphy.gif

RGEM just isn't quite out that far yet on TT, but looks like it could go either way

giphy.gif

If it was just up to how well the energy survives crossing the Rockies, I might be more inclined to side with the NAM, since sometimes these pieces are more energetic, but the Euro really, really wants to suppress with the N piece:

giphy.gif

but I don't know that it would take much for something more NAM like to happen. 

CMC likes Tellico's idea above, it almost turns the corner. 

 

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At what point do we start taking the NAM seriously, I know it's performed fairly well this winter but we all have been NAM'd before however it has had a decent consistency with this system for a couple days now 

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Sounding on the 12z NAM is razor thin at the surface for areas south of 40, around 34-35 at the surface. Any more ticks N or stronger with the 850 and it will become an issue possibly.

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