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Winter 2020 Med/Long Range Disco

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36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Was going to post about the Sat-Sun snow threat anyway but we are sitting at 61F and a Wiggum Rule is in effect, so the weekend has legs. Rule is 60 or higher at KDYL during heart of winter yields some form of snow during the following 5 days. Research increased percentage of this working out since I began the study to a robust 94% success. 

All guidance save the CMC on board for a few inches Saturday night with the EPS being most aggressive. Potent shortwave swings under us. Fast mover but probably the best potential of the season for many here.

The window is likely going to produce!

I sure hope you're right. We hit 60 here yesterday afternoon according to my unofficial back-yard thermometer, which is actually reading 64 right now...

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27 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

I sure hope you're right. We hit 60 here yesterday afternoon according to my unofficial back-yard thermometer, which is actually reading 64 right now...

Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd.

 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd.

 

Did it get published? What is the DOI# 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd.

 

I wouldn't mind a gander at that myself. Care to share? I can request on Researchgate if that helps (and if it's posted there :).

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd.

completely make sense....a cold front swings through knocking temps back to winter levels and a few (or many) flakes fly.

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17 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd.

 

Looks like it's going to fail this time. Weekend shortwave went poof overnight. Story of the winter. 

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like it's going to fail this time. Weekend shortwave went poof overnight. Story of the winter. 

Any flakes is a win....even a flurry. I didnt discriminate in the study. Larger events generally dont fall into the categorical research. During offseason I may post the graphs I have been working on. The most common event for this study was flurries to 2". Warning events only occurred here 7% of the time with the former mentioned 77%! The other 16% were 2-5" events. I never expect much from the Wiggum Rule tbh but find it intriguing to watch the rubber band snap back and bring winter back even if short-lived. Btw the date range for this to work is quickly fading as Feb 14 is the cutoff for the research I have done.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Any flakes is a win....even a flurry. I didnt discriminate in the study. Larger events generally dont fall into the categorical research. During offseason I may post the graphs I have been working on. The most common event for this study was flurries to 2". Warning events only occurred here 7% of the time with the former mentioned 77%! The other 16% were 2-5" events. I never expect much from the Wiggum Rule tbh but find it intriguing to watch the rubber band snap back and bring winter back even if short-lived. Btw the date range for this to work is quickly fading as Feb 14 is the cutoff for the research I have done.

When I read your post this morning about the 6% fail, I thought to myself this year will be the 6% what a dreadful winter this has been.

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1 hour ago, penndotguy said:

When I read your post this morning about the 6% fail, I thought to myself this year will be the 6% what a dreadful winter this has been.

Horrible. Sat-Sun is a very basic very bread n butter way we almost always score 1-4". Only this year could such a simple setup completely sh!t the bed. Really is incredible if you think about it.

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The previous two winters, March has been the snowiest month here. I have a feeling this winter will be a repeat. Of course, unless the rest of February surprises us it wouldn't take much.

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The window I have been keying on is upon us (Feb 6-14) and could very well be our last chance before the SE Ridge tries to go full latitude and lock in the 2nd half of Feb. Best shot at something appears to be developing closer to the middle/end of this period and the Great Valentine's Day Storm of 2020 may also in fact be a legit entity if you believe several pieces of guidance. Alot of well-timed players would need to interact but they are at least all showing up on the field. Bowling ball Southern low, PV wobbling thru the 50/50 region, strong arctic hp, northern energy attempting to merge with the big ull.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png

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27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICOB at 12z is a SECS for our area for Valentines Day. Not saying its right....it likely isnt. But let's try this one more time.

No way. Unless we're inside 48hrs, forget about it. Wasted too much time on this pathetic winter....the writing is on the wall. Better things to do in life than track fantasy potential.

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2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

No way. Unless we're inside 48hrs, forget about it. Wasted too much time on this pathetic winter....the writing is on the wall. Better things to do in life than track fantasy potential.

I agree with this statement, they've all looked great at this range. 

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26 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

I agree with this statement, they've all looked great at this range. 

Yep. I must agree also. Probably wont work out....again....but nothing else to talk about weather wise tbh

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It looks like another bout of heavy rain could be looming for mid/late week. If we keep getting enough of these systems as we move into late winter/early spring that will only build the flooding issues as we move ahead in time. Something to keep an eye on as we move into March/April.

 

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Get comfortable with cold rain, cause it's and endless onslaught to continue with no end in site. This is making last years winter of azz look pedestrian. The horror, the horror.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Get comfortable with cold rain, cause it's and endless onslaught to continue with no end in site. This is making last years winter of azz look pedestrian. The horror, the horror.

 

 

Watch the pattern change next month just in time for spring.

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Get comfortable with cold rain, cause it's and endless onslaught to continue with no end in site. This is making last years winter of azz look pedestrian. The horror, the horror.

 

 

I'm just getting sick of the parade of storms at this point. How many months now have been above normal with precipitation?

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