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Winter 2020 Med/Long Range Disco

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Well I've yet to ever start a topic but with the winter we are having how can it hurt? Plus all the topics we have open are "obs" threads.

 

Anyway the 6z gfs was a big step in the right direction for the weekend storm. Very close for the I95 crew. Nw burbs cash in.

 

f97d6f916cfe261597553140b0d5b5df.jpg

 

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850s are AN as the system approaches across the board on guidance. Antecedent airmass is stale cold and flow is off the ocean from the ESE. I can see this possibly being something for higher elevations well inland but the I95 crew is going to miss out on this one. Maybe some wet flakes mixed in towards the end. Certainly time for changes but these situations where East of the fall line is hoping for cold air wrapping in faster or a system manufacturing it's own cold air seldom work out. 

gem_T850_neus_24.png

ecmwf_T850_neus_7.png

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Let's do this again - latest WXSIM for NW Chester County PA with 12z NAM and 6z GFS for next weekend- this could be a great example of an elevation driven event inland of the I95 corridor - not cold but just cold enough especially with a bit of elevation for a wet snow event....this will change a bit but I do believe this is something to keep an eye on as the week moves on

Saturday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and rain likely in the morning, then         snow likely in the afternoon. High 34. Wind east around 10 mph, gusting to 17        mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches.                                                                                                                Saturday night: Cloudy. A mix of snow and rain likely in the evening, then a  chance of a mix of snow and rain after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill as low as 23. Wind north around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch.                   

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WXSIM with 12z GFS and NAM now down to "only" 6" to 10" of wet snow (keep in mind as someone questioned me on the last one - it's accuracy at this range is suspect at best - it simply takes a blend of the gfs and nam and makes a forecast based on local factors (elevation etc.) - verification will of course not be this...

 Friday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy
 after midnight. A slight chance of a mix of sleet, rain, and snow after
 midnight. Low 31. Wind east-northeast near calm in the evening, becoming 4 mph
 after midnight. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation
 (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on
 ground) accumulation expected.
 
 Saturday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and rain likely. Breezy. High 35. Wind
 chill ranging from 22 to 27. Wind east-northeast around 12 mph, gusting to 21
 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 6 to 10 inches.
 
 Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight.
 Patchy light fog. A mix of rain and snow likely in the evening, then a chance of
 a mix of snow and rain after midnight. Low 31. Wind chill ranging from 23 to 29.
 Wind east-northeast around 7 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming
 west-northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation
 (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Little or no snow
 accumulation expected.

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3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

 Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches.                                                                                                                     

Good luck with that.

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I'm still trying to get an answer from @Albedoman going on 4 days now on where the foot of snow is falling for groundhogs day. Is this the storm? Is this part 2 of the MLK back to back events with glaciers and icebergs in the streets? Or is there another system we are overlooking?

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59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm still trying to get an answer from @Albedoman going on 4 days now on where the foot of snow is falling for groundhogs day. Is this the storm? Is this part 2 of the MLK back to back events with glaciers and icebergs in the streets? Or is there another system we are overlooking?

It's on the GFS fantasy maps a week ago, beyond bad performance on this last third of January

 

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Well 18z is weaker initially with the low and also has a worse track. Doesn't wrap in nearly as much cold air. Nice cold January coastal rainstorm.

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ruh roh! WXSIM trend is not our friend....with 18z down to 1" to 2".....

Saturday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain likely
 in the morning, then a mix of rain, snow, and sleet likely in the afternoon.
 High 35. Wind chill around 25. Wind east around 10 mph, gusting to 15 mph.
 Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly
 around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Above-ground
 freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches.
 
 Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 mix of rain and snow likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of
 snow and rain after midnight. Low 31. Wind chill as low as 24. Wind north around
 9 mph, gusting to 15 mph, in the evening, becoming west-northwest after
 midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around a quarter of an inch. No snow accumulation expected.

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wow, went from 12"+ down to around 1" in 12 hours on wxsim.

Truncate the NAM and you might get nuclear winter

 

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The WXSIM still shows 1" to 2" of snow here at around 685 ft but it's battle regarding precip type when heavy it's snow and rain when lighter. Looks like a typical March event with precip type being heavily elevation dependent. I could see spots under 400 ft with nada / 2" over 600 ft /up to 3"+ over 700 ft in the philly burbs and NW NJ

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Second week in Feb (7th-14th give or take a day or two) is the next shot at a brief but very favorable pattern. Probably the best I've seen hinted at in long while. Yeah, we know the usual caveats 2 weeks out etc etc but this one is gaining some legs. I've also said beware the Great VD Storm of 2020. 

NAO finally goes negative, PNA goes positive, AO neutral to slight neg, ns disturbances become a parade, some hints of energy undercutting the PNA. As we get into the 2nd half of winter past few years some of the HL blocking looks in the LR have seemed to actually verify moreso than earlier in the season. If the NAO, AO, and PNA come together as I think is being signaled on ens and weeklies and the MJO doesnt spoil the fun, we should have an ok 7-10 day stretch at the very least. 

 

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Has there ever been a winter that was wall to wall hostile for snow that wasn't a super nino/nina? Seems like even in our worst of winters, we manage to pull out a 2 week period of winter at some point. Look at our recent bad winters, 98-99, 01-02,  07-08, and even 11-12 all had 2 week windows where we managed to scrape together a decent events(3-6") or 2. I would be pretty surprised if we don't get a similar period in February. I think it's a lock though this will finish as a below average winter, but I think we manage to at least hit double digits total wise. Would be pretty remarkable if we see a wall to wall snowless winter in a netural ENSO.

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

35 weeks till fall! BRING IT!

You got it!

I would pay a pretty penny to skip late Spring and all Summer. I'm already dreading those HHH days with no end in sight.

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WXSIM with 18z data continues to see a real battle of precip types based almost entirely on relative elevation on Saturday. When the precip is heavy it see S+ as it lightens it's just rain. Temps never fall below freezing at the surface hanging between 32.7-33.7 with 850's just below 0c during the time of heaviest precipitation. WXSIM is back up to around 10" of very wet snow.  Really feels like a March type snowstorm. In some ways reminiscent (of course not the amounts) of the March 1958 elevation driven event where just 6 miles up the road at my elevation Morgantown PA recorded 50" between the 19th-21st with 44" falling on the 20th alone with temps just above freezing for most of the event. The 6 days leading up to the event saw temps in the mid to upper 40's and the day after the snow ended went right back up toward the 50's and within 5 days all 50" was gone.

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