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Mid to Long Range Threats

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33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

cutters with brief cold shots behind them 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

Only chance at snow would be front end slop or a weak wave between cutters. Unfortunately, beautiful days like today and tomorrow are probably over for a while. Looks more 40’s and rain going forward 

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32 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

what's causing it though? when was the last time it happened?

It happened all last winter. The pacific jet is just very fast around the globe. We need to slow it down but unfortunately it hasn’t happen. We have done better in March because the wave length shorten. Even when we get a some pna help out west it’s more of a ridge then what we really need. 

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People are already giving up on the 2nd half and March ? LOL

Lol you too were just about ready to throw in the towel after this past weekend's headfake. It can break even the most optimistic weenie. Resorting to a name change though to change our mojo though, that I approve of

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It happened all last winter. The pacific jet is just very fast around the globe. We need to slow it down but unfortunately it hasn’t happen. We have done better in March because the wave length shorten. Even when we get a some pna help out west it’s more of a ridge then what we really need. 

what other winters in the past have we seen this? just curious this is new to me

more curious whats causing it

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3 minutes ago, romba said:

Lol you too were just about ready to throw in the towel after this past weekend's headfake. It can break even the most optimistic weenie. Resorting to a name change though to change our mojo though, that I approve of

I'm trying everything lol

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Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

what other winters in the past have we seen this? just curious this is new to me

more curious whats causing it

I would need to go back and look. The Pv being so strong and mjo in warm phases isn’t helping.

97-98 had a similar pac jet 

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I would need to go back and look. The Pv being so strong and mjo in warm phases isn’t helping.

97-98 had a similar pac jet 

Gefs possibly goes into 7. We need it to move along to have a good March. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs possibly goes into 7. We need it to move along to have a good March. 

I don’t currently think we get much help from the mjo this month or the next. The warm waters are just helping convection fire in the wrong phases. 
 

Weeklies keep this Niña type pattern going well into March. There are weeks where the boundary slips south but definitely no deep winter pattern in sight.

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I would need to go back and look. The Pv being so strong and mjo in warm phases isn’t helping.

97-98 had a similar pac jet 

Hopefully, this just turns out to be a 2 year thing. That’s how it has worked out since 2010. But if we don’t see a change as soon as next winter, then it could be an extended stretch. 
 

09-10....10-11....record -AO/-NAO....Colder and snowy

11-12..................Raging +EPO..........Warm low snowfall 

12-13..................Great February especially eastern sections...warmer winter

13-14....14-15.....record -EPO...built further east into +PNA 2nd winter...cold and snowy

15-16..................Super El Niño...warm and snowy

16-17.....17-18....Warm and snowy La Niña 

18-19....19-20.....Warm and less snowfall...ridge stuck north of Hawaii with persistent cutter and hugger storm tracks

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, this just turns out to be a 2 year thing. That’s how it has worked out since 2010. But if we don’t see a change as soon as next winter, then it could be an extended stretch. 
 

09-10....10-11....record -AO/-NAO....Colder and snowy

11-12..................Raging +EPO..........Warm low snowfall 

12-13..................Great February especially eastern sections...warmer winter

13-14....14-15.....record -EPO...built further east into +PNA 2nd winter...cold and snowy

15-16..................Super El Niño...warm and snowy

16-17.....17-18....Warm and snowy La Niña 

18-19....19-20.....Warm and less snowfall...ridge stuck north of Hawaii with persistent cutter and hugger storm tracks

Nice post! We can only hope. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the spring into early summer pattern evolution will be important. This pattern during the summer would be just like 2010 to 2012.

We are likely screwed next winter too with models showing a nasty La Niña.  Perhaps though stronger Pac La Niña forcing might make things better than last winter and this in an odd sort of way 

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just noticed that ewr didn't have a single day below freezing last january. even 2012 had days below freezing

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30 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

just noticed that ewr didn't have a single day below freezing last january. even 2012 had days below freezing

this winter might make 11-12 look cold and snowy....

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14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Jan 2012 was colder 

this might be ewr's first january without a day below freezing. 1973, 1989, 1998, 2002, 2006, and 2007 all had at least one

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

People are already giving up on the 2nd half and March ? LOL

There's no real reason not to, every threat gets worse and worse, every pattern change gets delayed and delayed. It may just not happen this winter. I'm sure it will snow again but I doubt we get a good pattern. 

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

There's no real reason not to, every threat gets worse and worse, every pattern change gets delayed and delayed. It may just not happen this winter. I'm sure it will snow again but I doubt we get a good pattern. 

Not to mention that March is 26 days away and that is one extra day that normal! ;-). I’m excited to get up to Killington in a few short weeks. 

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34 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Not to mention that March is 26 days away and that is one extra day that normal! ;-). I’m excited to get up to Killington in a few short weeks. 

Yea I feel I need to go somewhere at some point this winter to see snow but Killington is too far thats why I wish the snow line actually would at least push down to the Catskills.

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6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this might be ewr's first january without a day below freezing. 1973, 1989, 1998, 2002, 2006, and 2007 all had at least one

That would be absolutely incredible.

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12 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

this winter might make 11-12 look cold and snowy....

Might beat 2001 for one of the worst winters if we dont get anymore snow but that would be hard.

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12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I feel I need to go somewhere at some point this winter to see snow but Killington is too far thats why I wish the snow line actually would at least push down to the Catskills.

Too far, you're kidding right? Why do so many people think that anything outside their regular routine is too far to drive. I know I'm on the other side of that, I'll hop in the car to drive to Burlington to have a beer with friends, I'll go to Ellicotville to go mtn biking and I just drove to The Keys because it's easier than flying and renting and stuff. 2.5-3 hours seems like a nothing little ride...

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12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I feel I need to go somewhere at some point this winter to see snow but Killington is too far thats why I wish the snow line actually would at least push down to the Catskills.

We’re going to get snow soon I promise you. I would even watch the baroclinic gradient after the second wave on Thursday. It could push the gradient south enough that the next wave at least ends as snow Friday night with the low pressure trending way south of us. Also this weekend that bowling bowl is looking promising that could drop 3-6 if everything goes well. Winter is far from over, though it has been feeling like that the last 48 hours or so. Gfs also has it very active next week and on. 
id like to point out that this weekends storm is sandwiched between the 2 high pressures so the ceiling can’t be higher than a 3-6 maybe 4-8 tops but most likely lower than that because of shredding from both highs pushing dry air as the low does try to develop.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Might beat 2001 for one of the worst winters if we dont get anymore snow but that would be hard.

Definitely worst since. Up here in coastal CT we are ahead of that year for snowfall, but a ratter for sure.

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20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What a weenie run the 6z gfs was.

GFS has a cold bias in the LR so that's why we get these cold/snowy runs that never verify

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