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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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Oh and 2.46” rain for the day. Drought buster

 

and if this isn’t a kick in the nuts. My daily rain for today was more than my total snow for the winter. 

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We definitely verified on the lower end of things but it was still a solid slight risk event.  We were so close to this being a solid regionwide event though.

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16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Some mesonet gusts of 68 to 72 mph in Anne Arundel and Howard Counties...

Yeah, it appears that the Patapsco River was a delineation line of sorts. Husband on the Anne Arundel side of the Key Bridge said that they probably got about a 65 mph gust there. But on the Baltimore County side of the Key Bridge it was surprisingly weak.

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Appears to be several eddies from Sudlersville, to Bridgetown on the eastern shore.  Any of them look good for a quick spin up.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Appears to be several eddies from Sudlersville, to Bridgetown on the eastern shore.  Any of them look good for a quick spin up.

Hah!

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
326 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Kent County in central Delaware...
  East central Queen Anne's County in northeastern Maryland...
  Northeastern Caroline County in eastern Maryland...

* Until 400 PM EDT.
    
* At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Oakland, or 9 miles east of Centerville, moving
  east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dover, Harrington, Camden, Greensboro, Goldsboro, Woodside, Viola,
  Rising Sun-Lebanon, Rising Sun, Hazlettville, Dover Base Housing,
  Sandtown, Wyoming, Felton, Frederica, Houston, Magnolia, Henderson,
  Riverview and Highland Acres.

 

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Tornado warning

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Kent County in central Delaware...
  East central Queen Anne`s County in northeastern Maryland...
  Northeastern Caroline County in eastern Maryland...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Oakland, or 9 miles east of Centerville, moving
  east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

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I’ve stayed at Congress Hall a few times so sad to see it get ripped.  I hope very few of those really fine buildings got smacked 

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Interesting how the 12z HRRR actually nailed today's storm mode and motion.  Everything after that was crapola from an HRRR perspective.

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11 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Tornado warning

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Kent County in central Delaware...
  East central Queen Anne`s County in northeastern Maryland...
  Northeastern Caroline County in eastern Maryland...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Oakland, or 9 miles east of Centerville, moving
  east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

I was down at the end of my driveway taking a few shots of it approaching when the warning alert came across lol. Then a lightning bolt had be "running" back up the driveway in flip flops. 

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Was a pretty ordinary storm with heavy rain and some gusty winds here. If there was rotation it was just NE of me. If you look closely you can see a turkey buzzard gliding out in front.

 

torn.thumb.jpg.2d8d03a1a993f44f34eded5a7d6209cb.jpg

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C.A.P.E.

On radar south Dover looked like it got a pretty good hit from a tornado.  I could not tell if it was the same cell that came by your or not.  It was a separate warning.

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Was a pretty ordinary storm with heavy rain and some gusty winds here. If there was rotation it was just NE of me. If you look closely you can see a turkey buzzard gliding out in front.

 

torn.thumb.jpg.2d8d03a1a993f44f34eded5a7d6209cb.jpg

This reminds me of where I grew up in NW Ohio. 

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Second round of storms came through here managed to produce a 61.3 mph peak.  Heard a few limbs cracking.  Glad it left as fast it came.

2.73" total.  Performed about as expected TBH, we usually bust but the eastern shore gets the goods.  I'm OK with that.  Don't feel like breaking my back logging downed trees nor paying thousands for a pro to do it for me!  Gotta save that money for a new drainfield, mine is 45 years old so it's only a matter of time.

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That Kent Cointy cell put down some damage east of Dover AFB per Delaware State OEM.

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Ended up getting hit with an initial round of convection here in Annapolis before the main squall line went through.

Part one actually had some pea-sized hail along with torrential downpours. Second one also had torrential downpours, but contained stronger winds. No reports of damage here, but friends in Rockville reported several downed trees in their neighborhood. 

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Couple of thoughts about this past event.  These are my own casual observations, feel free to add/subtract/disagree.

1.) Severe weather events are messy here 9.9 times out of 10.  We usually bust on the low side of things.  No matter how animated the meso models are leading up to an event, always remain skeptical and rely on the nowcasting stuff the morning of to determine where everything is lining up.

2.) The warm front will struggle to push north of I-66 the night before the event.  It seems that no matter what happens, warm fronts tend to settle out between I-66 and the Potomac and not make much progress until around late morning or lunch.  The longer northward progression is delayed, the lower the chances of a middle to high end event.

3.) Big dynamics with okay instability beats great instability over meh dynamics.  The February event and this past event on April 13th show that it doesn't take much surface based instability to get things going if upstairs is rocking.  

4.) Sub 1000mb lows just to our NW don't go quietly into the night (Credit: @Rainshadow).  The June, 2013 event, the Feb 2020 event and the April 13th event reinforce my thoughts on #3.

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4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Couple of thoughts about this past event.  These are my own casual observations, feel free to add/subtract/disagree.

1.) Severe weather events are messy here 9.9 times out of 10.  We usually bust on the low side of things.  No matter how animated the meso models are leading up to an event, always remain skeptical and rely on the nowcasting stuff the morning of to determine where everything is lining up.

2.) The warm front will struggle to push north of I-66 the night before the event.  It seems that no matter what happens, warm fronts tend to settle out between I-66 and the Potomac and not make much progress until around late morning or lunch.  The longer northward progression is delayed, the lower the chances of a middle to high end event.

3.) Big dynamics with okay instability beats great instability over meh dynamics.  The February event and this past event on April 13th show that it doesn't take much surface based instability to get things going if upstairs is rocking.  

4.) Sub 1000mb lows just to our NW don't go quietly into the night.  The June, 2013 event, the Feb 2020 event and the April 13th event reinforce my thoughts on #3.

Even the April 6, 2017 had fairly widespread strong winds and seven EF-0 tornadoes in northern VA... this with less than 250J/kg MUCAPE.

That June 13, 2013 event could have been a memorable event area-wide if the morning MCS didn't hamper things. It was also the last time we had a moderate risk in the immediate region though it was downgraded to a SLGT at 1630z due to said morning MCS leaving us with AOB 1000 J/Kg MLCAPE.

This is my opinion (not an expert): When dealing with a W/NW flow event with a fairly strong low-pressure system within the flow there will very often be a morning/early day MCS. This is because the previous days storms that develop in the Midwest often grow upscale during the evening and are able to survive the whole night due to the better dynamics and CAPE. With the forward speed that these MCSs usually have they very often reach us during the morning hours. An ideal thing with these regimes would be either the timing being a few hours faster so that we can get more midday/solar noon sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere more quickly for any later day activity (easier option) or a heat-dome already being in place so that any morning event would stay to the north while the low-pressure system approaches from the W/NW spawning another MCS (or just decent storms in general) during the afternoon to cruise through the region during the afternoon/evening (harder to pull off option).

 

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On 4/13/2020 at 5:34 PM, Winter Wizard said:

Ended up getting hit with an initial round of convection here in Annapolis before the main squall line went through.

Part one actually had some pea-sized hail along with torrential downpours. Second one also had torrential downpours, but contained stronger winds. No reports of damage here, but friends in Rockville reported several downed trees in their neighborhood. 

We had a few smaller (<50') trees down here in Bay Ridge (Annapolis) near the waterfront. Highest gust at my house, which is somewhat protected by surrounding trees, was 39mph at 11:15 AM. 

http://chesapeakecam.com/1w-weather/NOAA/NOAA-2020-04.txt

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Couple of thoughts about this past event.  These are my own casual observations, feel free to add/subtract/disagree.

1.) Severe weather events are messy here 9.9 times out of 10.  We usually bust on the low side of things.  No matter how animated the meso models are leading up to an event, always remain skeptical and rely on the nowcasting stuff the morning of to determine where everything is lining up.

2.) The warm front will struggle to push north of I-66 the night before the event.  It seems that no matter what happens, warm fronts tend to settle out between I-66 and the Potomac and not make much progress until around late morning or lunch.  The longer northward progression is delayed, the lower the chances of a middle to high end event.

3.) Big dynamics with okay instability beats great instability over meh dynamics.  The February event and this past event on April 13th show that it doesn't take much surface based instability to get things going if upstairs is rocking.  

4.) Sub 1000mb lows just to our NW don't go quietly into the night (Credit: @Rainshadow).  The June, 2013 event, the Feb 2020 event and the April 13th event reinforce my thoughts on #3.

I agree with this like 90% of the time - and definitely for tornadoes I agree for sure. If you're looking downburst winds and large hail - I would argue that huge CAPE values and maybe a little to be desired on the shear/dynamics side of things could potentially serve you better...more pulsey and isolated for sure, though. But yes - I would take your combo over the opposite more often than not. 

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Confirmed EF1 tornado in Carroll county on Monday

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202004152000-KLWX-NOUS41-PNSLWX&fbclid=IwAR1v0GiDT6Plc6TB1CFU8BtJI8JlGNWufJewk9olrBhScRSUFTQ2zCCov7U

NOUS41 KLWX 152000
PNSLWX
DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-501>508-VAZ025>031-036>040-
050>057-501>508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-160800-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 PM EDT WED APR 15 2020

...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR FRIZZELLBURG IN CARROLL COUNTY MARYLAND...

LOCATION: NEAR FRIZZELLBURG IN CARROLL COUNTY, MARYLAND
DATE: MONDAY, APRIL 13TH, 2020
ESTIMATED TIME: 1:47 PM TO 1:48 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING: EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED: 90 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 75 YARDS
PATH LENGTH: 0.4 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON: 39.6087 N / 77.0850 W
ENDING LAT/LON: 39.6103 N / 77.0782 W
* FATALITIES: 0
* INJURIES: 0

...SUMMARY...
A BRIEF EF1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN THE 2000 BLOCK OF LEEWARD
DRIVE BETWEEN WESTMINSTER AND TANEYTOWN IN RURAL CARROLL COUNTY, 
MARYLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY, APRIL 13TH, 
2020.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKED ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND  
AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOON AND 3:00 PM EDT. 
THE TORNADO DEVELOPED ON THE NORTH END OF A SMALL SURGE IN THE 
LINE OVER NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY. DIRECTLY UNDER THIS RADAR 
SIGNATURE WAS A PATH OF CONCENTRATED AND CONVERGENT TREE DAMAGE 
SPANNING NO WIDER THAN 75 YARDS AND LESS THAN HALF A MILE IN 
LENGTH. A RESIDENT IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO WITNESSED A FUNNEL 
CLOUD APPROACHING IMMEDIATELY BEFORE THE DAMAGE OCCURRED.

DAMAGE WAS FIRST EVIDENT ON THE GROUND ON THE PROPERTY OF A RESIDENCE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF LEEWARD DRIVE (ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF MILE 
SOUTH OF MD-832 OLD TANEYTOWN ROAD). MANY LARGE AND HEALTHY 
SOFTWOOD (PINE) TREES WERE SNAPPED, AND SEVERAL SMALL TREES WERE 
PUSHED OVER. THE TREES FELL TOWARDS EACH OTHER IN A CONVERGENT 
MANNER INDICATING A ROTATING VORTEX IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. A 
HOUSE ON THE PROPERTY SUSTAINED SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE, PARTICULARLY 
TO THE GARAGE -- BOTH BAY DOORS WERE PUSHED INWARDS AND THE GARAGE
ITSELF WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FROM THE FOUNDATION. MULTIPLE 
SHINGLES AND PIECES OF THE ROOF WERE BLOWN OFF OF THE HOME. A 
LARGE RECREATIONAL VEHICLE AT THE RESIDENCE WAS PUSHED OVER AND 
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LOFTED BRIEFLY (FOR A FEW FEET) GIVEN THE 
FACT IT WAS SIDEWAYS AND FACING THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION FROM ITS 
INITIAL POSITION.

THE TORNADO CROSSED LEEWARD DRIVE, TOPPLING SEVERAL MORE TREES AND
CAUSING SHINGLE AND SIDING DAMAGE AT A SECOND RESIDENCE. NO FURTHER
DAMAGE WAS EVIDENT BY THE TIME THE PATH REACHED MD-832 OLD TANEYTOWN
ROAD.

THE DAMAGE TO THE HOMES (SHINGLE AND SIDING REMOVAL, GARAGE
DISPLACEMENT) AND TREES (HEALTHY SOFTWOOD TREES SNAPPED) AS WELL 
AS THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE LARGE RECREATIONAL VEHICLE, COUPLED 
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF VELOCITY AND HEIGHT OF DEBRIS SIGNATURES ON 
RADAR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A TORNADO RATED EF1 WITH PEAK WINDS OF 
ABOUT 90 MPH.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS CARROLL COUNTY'S OFFICE OF 
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND AREA RESIDENTS FOR THEIR REPORTS AND 
ASSISTANCE IN CONFIRMING THIS TORNADO.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0.........65 TO 85 MPH
EF1.........86 TO 110 MPH
EF2.........111 TO 135 MPH
EF3.........136 TO 165 MPH
EF4.........166 TO 200 MPH
EF5.........>200 MPH

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

$$

CS/DHOF

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The Carroll County tornado makes it the 2nd tornado in that watch box and verifies the watch box.  IMO, while the SPC SWODY2 & SWODY1 have been pretty iffy in the Mid Atlantic of late, their watch boxes have gotten really good.

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The Carroll County tornado makes it the 2nd tornado in that watch box and verifies the watch box.  IMO, while the SPC SWODY2 & SWODY1 have been pretty iffy in the Mid Atlantic of late, their watch boxes have gotten really good.

SPC did great imo, with the risk areas too. 
 

103 confirmed tornadoes so far from Sunday/Monday 

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