Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Porsche said:

LOL thanks I was going to NWS State College site and trying to find it there and that was a painful search.  I'll go to twiiter.

This has some good stuff on it.

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/climateRecordsHarrisburg

[Bubbler86]

Something I have not seen mention of but have seen it modeled twice now...seeing it in the latest Canadian...is that the southern wave we have been so focused on is so far away from our area by the time the Northern Wave gets near that there is actually some coastal development from a transfer Saturday night which kicks precip back over us.  I believe Mag touched on this today but thought he was more commenting on the UL/Northern Wave passing vs a transfer. 

 

 

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt.  I am just not saying much on that as when there is no guidance showing it we are talking Jan 25, 2001 type errors with the models and it is so rare they are that wrong. We are now within 60 hours of the event. 

I only share because now guidance is getting a bit better look at players as they come onto the field, and we can hone in a bit more on Op's over Ens guidance.  

Just an observation.....

[daxx]

22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That NS wave appears to set off quite a bit of precip in the western 2/3 of PA during Saturday night now...on the GFS and I think last nights Euro.  Most shows as rain on GFS but that is subject to change. 

I think that piece of energy is our best shot at seeing something wintry this weekend. Mags area would probably benefit the most, but i will take what ever it gives us. Hopefully its still there or improves in future runs.

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, daxx said:

I think that piece of energy is our best shot at seeing something wintry this weekend. Mags area would probably benefit the most, but i will take what ever it gives us. Hopefully its still there or improves in future runs.

That's definitely the way things are being portrayed right now. Just need help at the surface and just above:

 

. 

[Itstrainingtime]

@daxx @Bubbler86@MAG5035

If we're rooting for the northern stream vort to deliver, do we want the southern stream to be squashed as much as possible? I'm trying to figure out how we can get the northern stream to develop/redevelop to it's maximum potential. I would think that if the southern vort is quicker/sheared/farther south, the northern stream could dig better? 

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@daxx @Bubbler86@MAG5035

If we're rooting for the northern stream vort to deliver, do we want the southern stream to be squashed as much as possible? I'm trying to figure out how we can get the northern stream to develop/redevelop to it's maximum potential. I would think that if the southern vort is quicker/sheared/farther south, the northern stream could dig better? 

There is a discussion about this over on the MA thread so I do not not want to seem like I am copying them (note my CMC comment went up before their discussion) but I would say that yes taking the models verbatim we want the southern wave to keep trending east and allow the northern wave more room to work.  The subject of trough positioning is too much to think about in my opinion until we see if this is even viable but I still go back to my same comments....no cold air.  So best case someone gets a surprise giant snow flake wet snowfall especially east of the mountains. At the time a second coastal would be developing the closest below freezing surface temps are just at the PA/NY border so relying on cold from way above/atmosphere as just above is also above freezing. 

[Bubbler86]

On the subject of our convo this Am and how this winter has been "not as cold", check out the 0Z Euro  predicted surface temps for the CONUS this weekend during the daytime.  Its not cold anywhere nor is it hot anywhere.  Usually there are some extremes somewhere but it is actually just blah throughout the whole country.  Usually Florida, South Texas or the normally warmer areas east of California are hot at any given point but none are this weekend.  Maybe not so rare but found it interesting. It's 51 in  Richmond, 61 in Jacksonville,  64 in Dallas, and 62 in Phoenix. 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

On the subject of our convo this Am and how this winter has been "not as cold", check out the 0Z Euro  predicted surface temps for the CONUS this weekend during the daytime.  Its not cold anywhere nor is it hot anywhere.  Usually there are some extremes somewhere but it is actually just blah throughout the whole country.  Usually Florida, South Texas or the normally warmer areas east of California are hot at any given point but none are this weekend.  Maybe not so rare but found it interesting. It's 51 in  Richmond, 61 in Jacksonville,  64 in Dallas, and 62 in Phoenix. 

 

 

Only a 25 degree difference between International Falls and Tallahassee...that's crazy! 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Only a 25 degree difference between International Falls and Tallahassee...that's crazy! 

And I guess that happens but how often does it happen when there is also only a 10-15 degree difference between the US/Canadian border and Phoenix Arizona at the same time? 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@daxx @Bubbler86@MAG5035

If we're rooting for the northern stream vort to deliver, do we want the southern stream to be squashed as much as possible? I'm trying to figure out how we can get the northern stream to develop/redevelop to it's maximum potential. I would think that if the southern vort is quicker/sheared/farther south, the northern stream could dig better? 

12Z Euro just sees the NS Wave pass through and does not develop much as to a coastal.  Upslope snows in far Western PA and West Virginia seem impressive. 

[paweather5]

Boys we are in trouble. Lol

[Bubbler86]

Yesterdays Gorilla in the Gulf scenario has been pushed back 36 hours but still in  play...now into next weekend.

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather5 said:

Boys we are in trouble. Lol

 

Just need one big hitter to save the winter.  2/3 of it is gone but climo at MDT is what...35" or so....a 1-2 foot system would keep us away from a historically bad winter. 

[Wmsptwx]

9 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

Boys we are in trouble. Lol

Not a good look but still holding out some hope.

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

Boys we are in trouble. Lol

 

That was what i was referencing earlier.  

add onto that the AO wanting to stay + and lets just say......that's not a + whatsoever. 

If there's any silver lining...it will look different next week.  What that look is like is anyone's guess, but at least we'll be entering our window of opportunity. 

[canderson]

Remind me next winter to never, ever, ever pay attention to any model run past say 120 hours. It's pointless. 

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, canderson said:

Remind me next winter to never, ever, ever pay attention to any model run past say 120 hours. It's pointless. 

While the point is well taken, I look at it as a steady feed of clues in a guessing game, that based on the source, you know what you can trust....and what you can't.

From 120 +, yes there is sometimes/often enough variability to make on rip out whatever hair remains in ones head.....but the main clues are often decent. 

Now beyond 240.....well that's just a crap shoot....

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Only a 25 degree difference between International Falls and Tallahassee...that's crazy! 

Look at Alberta and Saskatchewan north of the border...

[Voyager]

Now this is funny stuff right here...

https://wnep.com/2020/01/29/peta-calls-for-punxsutawney-phil-to-be-replaced-with-an-ai-groundhog/

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Now this is funny stuff right here...

https://wnep.com/2020/01/29/peta-calls-for-punxsutawney-phil-to-be-replaced-with-an-ai-groundhog/

LOL.  Not sure animatronic should be considered AI but the Country Bear Jamboree is paying close attention to these developments. 

 

Edit-I found the born into a world of terabytes a funny comment.  Sounds like someone who just went shopping at Staples and saw the word on the computer he was considering purchasing. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Well, if nothing else works out before, the 18z GFS delivered a major storm in only 14 days ! 

One of these has to hit ? Maybe ? Possibly? Hopefully? Dream on?

We still have 8 weeks of tracking potential!

It’s not over until it’s over...

[Atomixwx]

5 hours ago, Voyager said:

Now this is funny stuff right here...

https://wnep.com/2020/01/29/peta-calls-for-punxsutawney-phil-to-be-replaced-with-an-ai-groundhog/

If PETA is butthurt over a real Groundhog, they're going to shit a brick hwall when Bill Murray let's an animatronic groundhog drive a 1987 Ford F150 in Groundhog Day II.

[Blizzard of 93]

7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just need one big hitter to save the winter.  2/3 of it is gone but climo at MDT is what...35" or so....a 1-2 foot system would keep us away from a historically bad winter. 

MDT is sitting at around 5 inches of snow this season so far.

MDT just needs another 6 to 10 inches of snow this season to avoid a historic disaster. 

Here is the CTP chart for the snow for the last 40 years at MDT.

7 seasons had 15 inches or less of snow just since 1980.

We have lots of time to make up ground, but we will need a really good double digit storm to have a chance of hitting 31 inches at MDT to beat climo average this year.

 

[Bubbler86]

49 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT is sitting at around 5 inches of snow this season so far.

MDT just needs another 6 to 10 inches of snow this season to avoid a historic disaster. 

Here is the CTP chart for the snow for the last 40 years at MDT.

7 seasons had 15 inches or less of snow just since 1980.

We have lots of time to make up ground, but we will need a really good double digit storm to have a chance of hitting 31 inches at MDT to beat climo average this year.

 

Good chart.  So they need to get over 10 to not live in recent infamy.  10 or less is probably historic to me using that chart as a guide.  Based on the 60s  convo from earlier I would be willing to take the 1960's out and say the real average is all the other years when considering all years. 

[sauss06]

Could we hit 60 on Monday? break out the oil and the sun in 

[canderson]

It might not really snow again this year but it was 24 degrees this morning so at least it was cold. 

[Bubbler86]

37 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Could we hit 60 on Monday? break out the oil and the sun in 

I think we can hit 60 3 days next week with Tue making a run for 70.

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think we can hit 60 3 days next week with Tue making a run for 70.

 

 

Agreed...I think we should easily top 60 on at least one day. Euro has been steadfast for days now that the southern areas get up in the 64-66 range. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Agreed...I think we should easily top 60 on at least one day. Euro has been steadfast for days now that the southern areas get up in the 64-66 range. 

Yes I should have specified Harrisburg and South.