Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 16 minutes ago, daxx said: I think that piece of energy is our best shot at seeing something wintry this weekend. Mags area would probably benefit the most, but i will take what ever it gives us. Hopefully its still there or improves in future runs. That's definitely the way things are being portrayed right now. Just need help at the surface and just above: . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 @daxx @Bubbler86@MAG5035 If we're rooting for the northern stream vort to deliver, do we want the southern stream to be squashed as much as possible? I'm trying to figure out how we can get the northern stream to develop/redevelop to it's maximum potential. I would think that if the southern vort is quicker/sheared/farther south, the northern stream could dig better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @daxx @Bubbler86@MAG5035 If we're rooting for the northern stream vort to deliver, do we want the southern stream to be squashed as much as possible? I'm trying to figure out how we can get the northern stream to develop/redevelop to it's maximum potential. I would think that if the southern vort is quicker/sheared/farther south, the northern stream could dig better? There is a discussion about this over on the MA thread so I do not not want to seem like I am copying them (note my CMC comment went up before their discussion) but I would say that yes taking the models verbatim we want the southern wave to keep trending east and allow the northern wave more room to work. The subject of trough positioning is too much to think about in my opinion until we see if this is even viable but I still go back to my same comments....no cold air. So best case someone gets a surprise giant snow flake wet snowfall especially east of the mountains. At the time a second coastal would be developing the closest below freezing surface temps are just at the PA/NY border so relying on cold from way above/atmosphere as just above is also above freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On the subject of our convo this Am and how this winter has been "not as cold", check out the 0Z Euro predicted surface temps for the CONUS this weekend during the daytime. Its not cold anywhere nor is it hot anywhere. Usually there are some extremes somewhere but it is actually just blah throughout the whole country. Usually Florida, South Texas or the normally warmer areas east of California are hot at any given point but none are this weekend. Maybe not so rare but found it interesting. It's 51 in Richmond, 61 in Jacksonville, 64 in Dallas, and 62 in Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Bubbler86 said: On the subject of our convo this Am and how this winter has been "not as cold", check out the 0Z Euro predicted surface temps for the CONUS this weekend during the daytime. Its not cold anywhere nor is it hot anywhere. Usually there are some extremes somewhere but it is actually just blah throughout the whole country. Usually Florida, South Texas or the normally warmer areas east of California are hot at any given point but none are this weekend. Maybe not so rare but found it interesting. It's 51 in Richmond, 61 in Jacksonville, 64 in Dallas, and 62 in Phoenix. Only a 25 degree difference between International Falls and Tallahassee...that's crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Only a 25 degree difference between International Falls and Tallahassee...that's crazy! And I guess that happens but how often does it happen when there is also only a 10-15 degree difference between the US/Canadian border and Phoenix Arizona at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: @daxx @Bubbler86@MAG5035 If we're rooting for the northern stream vort to deliver, do we want the southern stream to be squashed as much as possible? I'm trying to figure out how we can get the northern stream to develop/redevelop to it's maximum potential. I would think that if the southern vort is quicker/sheared/farther south, the northern stream could dig better? 12Z Euro just sees the NS Wave pass through and does not develop much as to a coastal. Upslope snows in far Western PA and West Virginia seem impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Boys we are in trouble. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Yesterdays Gorilla in the Gulf scenario has been pushed back 36 hours but still in play...now into next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather5 said: Boys we are in trouble. Lol Just need one big hitter to save the winter. 2/3 of it is gone but climo at MDT is what...35" or so....a 1-2 foot system would keep us away from a historically bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Boys we are in trouble. Lol Not a good look but still holding out some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Boys we are in trouble. Lol That was what i was referencing earlier. add onto that the AO wanting to stay + and lets just say......that's not a + whatsoever. If there's any silver lining...it will look different next week. What that look is like is anyone's guess, but at least we'll be entering our window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Remind me next winter to never, ever, ever pay attention to any model run past say 120 hours. It's pointless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, canderson said: Remind me next winter to never, ever, ever pay attention to any model run past say 120 hours. It's pointless. While the point is well taken, I look at it as a steady feed of clues in a guessing game, that based on the source, you know what you can trust....and what you can't. From 120 +, yes there is sometimes/often enough variability to make on rip out whatever hair remains in ones head.....but the main clues are often decent. Now beyond 240.....well that's just a crap shoot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Only a 25 degree difference between International Falls and Tallahassee...that's crazy! Look at Alberta and Saskatchewan north of the border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Now this is funny stuff right here... https://wnep.com/2020/01/29/peta-calls-for-punxsutawney-phil-to-be-replaced-with-an-ai-groundhog/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, Voyager said: Now this is funny stuff right here... https://wnep.com/2020/01/29/peta-calls-for-punxsutawney-phil-to-be-replaced-with-an-ai-groundhog/ LOL. Not sure animatronic should be considered AI but the Country Bear Jamboree is paying close attention to these developments. Edit-I found the born into a world of terabytes a funny comment. Sounds like someone who just went shopping at Staples and saw the word on the computer he was considering purchasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Well, if nothing else works out before, the 18z GFS delivered a major storm in only 14 days ! One of these has to hit ? Maybe ? Possibly? Hopefully? Dream on? We still have 8 weeks of tracking potential! It’s not over until it’s over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 5 hours ago, Voyager said: Now this is funny stuff right here... https://wnep.com/2020/01/29/peta-calls-for-punxsutawney-phil-to-be-replaced-with-an-ai-groundhog/ If PETA is butthurt over a real Groundhog, they're going to shit a brick hwall when Bill Murray let's an animatronic groundhog drive a 1987 Ford F150 in Groundhog Day II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Just need one big hitter to save the winter. 2/3 of it is gone but climo at MDT is what...35" or so....a 1-2 foot system would keep us away from a historically bad winter. MDT is sitting at around 5 inches of snow this season so far. MDT just needs another 6 to 10 inches of snow this season to avoid a historic disaster. Here is the CTP chart for the snow for the last 40 years at MDT. 7 seasons had 15 inches or less of snow just since 1980. We have lots of time to make up ground, but we will need a really good double digit storm to have a chance of hitting 31 inches at MDT to beat climo average this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 49 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: MDT is sitting at around 5 inches of snow this season so far. MDT just needs another 6 to 10 inches of snow this season to avoid a historic disaster. Here is the CTP chart for the snow for the last 40 years at MDT. 7 seasons had 15 inches or less of snow just since 1980. We have lots of time to make up ground, but we will need a really good double digit storm to have a chance of hitting 31 inches at MDT to beat climo average this year. Good chart. So they need to get over 10 to not live in recent infamy. 10 or less is probably historic to me using that chart as a guide. Based on the 60s convo from earlier I would be willing to take the 1960's out and say the real average is all the other years when considering all years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Could we hit 60 on Monday? break out the oil and the sun in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 It might not really snow again this year but it was 24 degrees this morning so at least it was cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 37 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Could we hit 60 on Monday? break out the oil and the sun in I think we can hit 60 3 days next week with Tue making a run for 70. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think we can hit 60 3 days next week with Tue making a run for 70. Agreed...I think we should easily top 60 on at least one day. Euro has been steadfast for days now that the southern areas get up in the 64-66 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Agreed...I think we should easily top 60 on at least one day. Euro has been steadfast for days now that the southern areas get up in the 64-66 range. Yes I should have specified Harrisburg and South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, canderson said: It might not really snow again this year but it was 24 degrees this morning so at least it was cold. It's telling that you'd post that on the night it was still an AN departure...normal low for today at MDT is 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's telling that you'd post that on the night it was still an AN departure...normal low for today at MDT is 23. Ugh. Just shows how bad a winter we've (read: everyone basically in North America) had when what feels very cold is still AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Ugh. Just shows how bad a winter we've (read: everyone basically in North America) had when what feels very cold is still AN. And CTP stated on Twitter this morning that today's low temp will be the coldest for at least the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: And CTP stated on Twitter this morning that today's low temp will be the coldest for at least the next 7 days. We are going to be so far AN in February by this time next Thursday that will take an arctic plunge to make the month end BN. Lows in the 50's early next week. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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