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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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Still too much progression and positive tilted alignment for my liking with this upcoming storm. The western ridge is pressed east/flattened and it limits the northern branch's ability to dig down and pull this up in time. GFS/Euro bury a lot of energy into Mexico, while the 12z Canadian didn't and offered the most coherent attempt at some interaction..thus being the closest of the bunch at 12z.  CTP had a decent discussion about this in their long term this morning.

 

Quote
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still watching potential for weekend storminess, although
consensus of operational models takes a flatter wave out to sea
south of the region, sparing PA from a big storm. This is a
critical upper air pattern, however, and east coast storminess
is largely dependent upon the strength of the upper trof coming
onshore into British Columbia on Wednesday, cresting/flattening
the western NOAM upper ridge and then digging southward through
the Great Basin and Four corners region while additional
shortwaves eject into the northern Plains. Degree of phasing
between northern and southern stream is highly suspect in this
pattern, and the extent of Gulf Coast convection Thu night into
Friday may very well determine how close to the coast the sfc
low deepens Friday and whether PA gets into any precip on the
northern edge of the storm system. For now, it appears to be a
miss, but will continue to watch closely. The arrival of a
positively- tilted trough into the northeast Saturday night
through Sunday may be enough to produce a quick- but
insignificant-snowfall and drop temperatures to below normal for
a 24 to 36 hour period. As that trough moves off the Atlantic
coast, northwest flow, lake effect snow, and gusty winds appear
likely to start the first full week in February.

 

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On the subject of extreme weather the Euro now has 3 days in the 60's (LSV) next week with one day threatening 70 followed by the potential for a MECS if not HECS just 36 hours later starting Thursday night (next week).  A substantial slp is lifting through the lower Miss Valley while bagginess off the coast of S/E VA suggests the low is getting ready to transfer and lock in the cold air being funneled down through PA from a retreating high.  Unlike this weekend the late week storm next week has cold air to work with just to our north. 

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

On the subject of extreme weather the Euro now has 3 days in the 60's (LSV) next week with one day threatening 70 followed by the potential for a MECS if not HECS just 36 hours later starting Thursday night (next week).  A substantial slp is lifting through the lower Miss Valley while bagginess off the coast of S/E VA suggests the low is getting ready to transfer and lock in the cold air being funneled down through PA from a retreating high.  Unlike this weekend the late week storm next week has cold air to work with just to our north. 

Yes. We need everything to align perfectly to have a chance this weekend...at least for next weekend the setup looks more workable. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes. We need everything to align perfectly to have a chance this weekend...at least for next weekend the setup looks more workable. 

Could be 3-4 days of A/C and one with some heavy shoveling for you :-)

 

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Have been following the possible light snow event Friday AM pre-dawn.  Precip making it over the mountains seems like a long shot but keep seeing more and more support for it.  Also 84 Hour Nam also looks like we are about to get QPF thrown over us Friday night but there is nothing I see to stop the stuff from heading east by north east so light if anything at all. 

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Horst weighs in on the weekend: (NOAA is scheduling a dropsonde this evening)

"This data will aid initialization of forecast models...and hopefully increase confidence in weekend storm details along the East coast. The current pattern bias favors a light rain-snow mix in the low lands and big cities, but some snow in the mountains. Stay tuned!" #RemainCalm

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Horst weighs in on the weekend: (NOAA is scheduling a dropsonde this evening)

"This data will aid initialization of forecast models...and hopefully increase confidence in weekend storm details along the East coast. The current pattern bias favors a light rain-snow mix in the low lands and big cities, but some snow in the mountains. Stay tuned!" #RemainCalm

Horst showing any inclination of a storm is a very good sign to me. Let's not lose what we have here and build on it. 

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32 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Horst showing any inclination of a storm is a very good sign to me. Let's not lose what we have here and build on it. 

The 18z EPS also moved a little back west & has a good cluster of low tracks that could deliver some snow this weekend.

The final track might not be known on this one until sometime Friday until all of the players are on the field.

It wouldn’t take much to bring this back to a decent light to moderate event for many of us just like several models have shown on & off since late last week.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z EPS also moved a little back west & has a good cluster of low tracks that could deliver some snow this weekend.

The final track might not be known on this one until sometime Friday until all of the players are on the field.

It wouldn’t take much to bring this back to a decent light to moderate event for many of us just like several models have shown on & off since late last week.

 

I agree with you and in reality this is the case w/ most events.  0z NAM looks like it too is close enough (extrapolated)

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

It’s going to end up a 37 degree light rain day Saturday huh. A miserable one to spend at arlington National cemetery. 

Sounds about right from what I’m looking at .

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The only model right now that gives us a chance for weekend snow is the 6z NAM.

 

 

I've been watching the flow and looking for signs of better looks.  Oz GFS had more dig and better ridging out ahead as did the 6z but its a little late to do us enough good.  I hate wish casting, but IF we can get that to occur just a bit earlier, it might yank this thing north a bit more.  I mention it because it still has a chance of happening as the NS energy still off the map.  

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26 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I've been watching the flow and looking for signs of better looks.  Oz GFS had more dig and better ridging out ahead as did the 6z but its a little late to do us enough good.  I hate wish casting, but IF we can get that to occur just a bit earlier, it might yank this thing north a bit more.  I mention it because it still has a chance of happening as the NS energy still off the map.  

Yes, I’m not throwing in the towel.

We have seen many times, in all seasons, these type of storms travel further north & west than modeled. We don’t need too much of a correction to get at least a minor event from this storm.

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55 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, I’m not throwing in the towel.

We have seen many times, in all seasons, these type of storms travel further north & west than modeled. We don’t need too much of a correction to get at least a minor event from this storm.

I agree with you, other years we usually got some north west movement with these storms.

Just wish we could capture some cold for these storms...

 

NWS: The arrival of a positively-tilted trough into the northeast
Saturday night through Sunday may be enough to produce a quick
minor snowfall and drop temperatures to below normal for a 24 to
36 hour period. As that trough moves off the Atlantic coast,
northwest flow, lake effect snow, and gusty winds over western
areas start the first full week in February.

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

How many days in a row can  the sky look exactly the same as the day before? 

I'll ask the folks who spend their lives in Stoke-on-Trent, England, because that's what I imagine this is like.

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14 minutes ago, pawatch said:

I agree with you, other years we usually got some north west movement with these storms.

Just wish we could capture some cold for these storms...

 

NWS: The arrival of a positively-tilted trough into the northeast
Saturday night through Sunday may be enough to produce a quick
minor snowfall and drop temperatures to below normal for a 24 to
36 hour period. As that trough moves off the Atlantic coast,
northwest flow, lake effect snow, and gusty winds over western
areas start the first full week in February.

That is what is killing this thing and what I was referencing above wrt ridging.  Looking over AM runs, some have a little better ridging out ahead which give this thing a chance to climb a bit more.  Again, that's not a wish...its what I'm looking for based on what we are discussing about storms and their ability to climb north even as we get into the near term.  Like Blizz said, its happened countless times over the last few years.  That's my rub w/ those that have already called this DOA. Just based on our ability to fail, they are probably "correct" in their assessment, but IMO its really 36hrs away from calling the coroner.

 

edit - and for those in the NW....fine....call the coroner, but anyone here in the LSV that is calling this, is just hoping to get "lucky".   

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14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

How many days in a row can the sky look exactly the same as the day before? 

Or how many mornings can we go without wearing a real coat.  Have not worn a coat once this winter.  I do not work outside but still.... 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Or how many mornings can we go without wearing a real coat.  Have not worn a coat once this winter.  I do not work outside but still.... 

I haven't worn a coat since I was a kid living at home. I have a light jacket (windbreaker kind of deal) and a couple of sweatshirts.

Right now we're (LNS) sitting in 7th place all-time for January warmth. As you and others have pointed out we've had very warm days in January and February in recent years and this year is no exception - what is standing out to me this winter is the complete lack of very cold nights. Without looking I'd say we've only had a few nights in the teens and probably none of them below 15. Lack of snow cover certainly plays a part in that...

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I haven't worn a coat since I was a kid living at home. I have a light jacket (windbreaker kind of deal) and a couple of sweatshirts.

Right now we're (LNS) sitting in 7th place all-time for January warmth. As you and others have pointed out we've had very warm days in January and February in recent years and this year is no exception - what is standing out to me this winter is the complete lack of very cold nights. Without looking I'd say we've only had a few nights in the teens and probably none of them below 15. Lack of snow cover certainly plays a part in that...

The interesting thing is I did not really think we had a warm month but you are right in that MDT has only stayed below freezing two days in January and has only hit the teens 3 times with all being above 15.  We have been colder in my area and have gone down between 10-15 a couple times this month but nothing major.  Funny but records say we hit 69 twice at MDT this month and I did not remember that. Going back to Dec we had 3 more nights in the teens and 1 day below freezing but no days in the 60's.  So as we high the 2/3 mark in our Met Winter I would not call this one of our warmer winters ever but for the purposes of this board it is one of the worst weather wise.  

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Or how many mornings can we go without wearing a real coat.  Have not worn a coat once this winter.  I do not work outside but still.... 

And then there's me. The person who has worn a t-shirt under a sweatshirt, covered by a winter coat, most days since November...lol

Since my thyroid issues developed, the cold has been much more difficult to tolerate. 

 

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