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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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Why would anyone want things to be sugarcoated?  Optimism is good but sometimes that can lead to misinformation and false hope.  Give me the hard data any day of the week.  It's science.  There is no optimism or pessimism, only reality.

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Sensei! I love it! As a former continuous improvement (Lean methodology) leader I never expected to read that term used on here. :lol:

Neither did I....let alone in a personal reference.  :lol:

Now I'm nervous for my next impending screw up.....it's been known to happen.

In truth its all good and why I love it here.  Sharing our passion for weather. (and the occasional snowflake).

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Neither did I....let alone in a personal reference.  :lol:

Now I'm nervous for my next impending screw up.....it's been known to happen.

In truth its all good and why I love it here.  Sharing our passion for weather. (and the occasional snowflake).

Don't listen to Colonial Jessup, we can handle the truth.

and just a reminder of 36 years ago ( January 22, 1984) the brutal cold temps

and while i'm reflecting, i missed the other day, 24 years ago January 19th 1996, all the rain, the 50 degree temps and all the snow that had fallen in early January the river was suppose to crest in Harrisburg at 23 feet but never did until a couple days later at 27'. The massive ice break up is something i will NEVER forget. Not only the sight, but the sounds that it was making going down the river. I can honestly say that was one of the few times in my life as a fireman i though i was going to be killed. 

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1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

Don't listen to Colonial Jessup, we can handle the truth.

and just a reminder of 36 years ago ( January 22, 1984) the brutal cold temps

and while i'm reflecting, i missed the other day, 24 years ago January 19th 1996, all the rain, the 50 degree temps and all the snow that had fallen in early January the river was suppose to crest in Harrisburg at 23 feet but never did until a couple days later at 27'. The massive ice break up is something i will NEVER forget. Not only the sight, but the sounds that it was making going down the river. I can honestly say that was one of the few times in my life as a fireman i though i was going to be killed. 

Did you see the Walnut Street bridge "event" happen live?

I  remember watching ABC27. Rick Wagner and Alicia Richards had that amateur video on their newscast. I still get chills watching that thing slam into the Market Street bridge. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, it (and the EC) really misled us for a few days. 

Yea if this ugly 12z suite ends up coming to fruition, thats going to be a tough bust on those models. Seems like they're starting to keep the primary dominant too far north as it does get into Michigan.. which probably won't work for most anyone in here unless we have a rapidly intensifying coastal low. Just looking at the NAM for instance we have no redevelopment of the 850mb low instead having the original one going into the lakes and sending in warmer 850 air. This is a change from earlier runs a day or two ago which were bringing the 850 low over or just south of the area. Just not going to work without any established cold air. This isn't even looking all that great in NY State either, seemingly more relegated to the high ground up there. 

The EC and GFS busted pretty good in the central on Sat too, the GFS moreso... having a warning snowfall close to game time at UNV when the reality ended up being about 2 inches or so and a lot of sleet and even freezing rain for not only there but most of the north central. The GFS in under one cycle has went from about a foot at UNV to pretty much zero at 12z today. Thats rough, but that's what we're working with here.. a degree or two aloft either way turns this to a snowstorm or yet another rainstorm. We'll see what the Euro does, what the 12z ensembles look like, and go from there with the 18z and 0z tonight. There's still a chance the storm evolution goes back the other way as this is only 1 run. 

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General rule of thumb I follow is if too much has to happen, nice snow is very unlikely. Also such a marginal airmass it just all leads to trouble. Also nut, you being honest isn’t being a downer or anything... your posts are gold here...keep it up.

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13 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Don't listen to Colonial Jessup, we can handle the truth.

and just a reminder of 36 years ago ( January 22, 1984) the brutal cold temps

and while i'm reflecting, i missed the other day, 24 years ago January 19th 1996, all the rain, the 50 degree temps and all the snow that had fallen in early January the river was suppose to crest in Harrisburg at 23 feet but never did until a couple days later at 27'. The massive ice break up is something i will NEVER forget. Not only the sight, but the sounds that it was making going down the river. I can honestly say that was one of the few times in my life as a fireman i though i was going to be killed. 

wow....now that i think back, that was crazy and I'm sure rather scary for you first responders.  I did drive across and see the carnage.  hearing the pressure heaves....just spooky.

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9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea if this ugly 12z suite ends up coming to fruition, thats going to be a tough bust on those models. Seems like they're starting to keep the primary dominant too far north as it does get into Michigan.. which probably won't work for most anyone in here unless we have a rapidly intensifying coastal low. Just looking at the NAM for instance we have no redevelopment of the 850mb low instead having the original one going into the lakes and sending in warmer 850 air. This is a change from earlier runs a day or two ago which were bringing the 850 low over or just south of the area. Just not going to work without any established cold air. This isn't even looking all that great in NY State either, seemingly more relegated to the high ground up there. 

The EC and GFS busted pretty good in the central on Sat too, the GFS moreso... having a warning snowfall close to game time at UNV when the reality ended up being about 2 inches or so and a lot of sleet and even freezing rain for not only there but most of the north central. The GFS in under one cycle has went from about a foot at UNV to pretty much zero at 12z today. Thats rough, but that's what we're working with here.. a degree or two aloft either way turns this to a snowstorm or yet another rainstorm. We'll see what the Euro does, what the 12z ensembles look like, and go from there with the 18z and 0z tonight. There's still a chance the storm evolution goes back the other way as this is only 1 run. 

 

 

Because my area was on the cusp from the very beginning I have been noticing the trends on this one fairly closely and if you go back 2-3 days you will see the rain/snow line advancing further north if not every run at least every few runs.  So this may be one run but the trend has been several unfortunately.  

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16 minutes ago, paweather said:

Got to hope for a good Feb to Mid-March at this point per the GFS. Upcoming storm would only get snow near the PA/NY line. Next week another cutter of a rain storm. U-G-L-Y. 

Need to bank on Feb/March now and hope. 

 

well...its AT the 10 day window.....:lol: #BEASTT

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

well...its AT the 10 day window.....:lol: #BEASTT

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

That panel is a rainer for my neck of the woods...lol

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That panel is a rainer for my neck of the woods...lol

And where it is showing snow the surface temps are all above freezing   Hell its above freezing directly north of us in Canada when that panel would be valid.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Just kinda a lame lack of cold when it’s useful kinda year so far.

It's not even a lack of cold when useful - it's a lack of cold entirely. This week is by far the coldest week we've had and it's still about on average. 

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36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Did you see the Walnut Street bridge "event" happen live?

I  remember watching ABC27. Rick Wagner and Alicia Richards had that amateur video on their newscast. I still get chills watching that thing slam into the Market Street bridge. 

I did not. I would tell a story from that night but don't wanna clog up the thread.

1 minute ago, canderson said:

It's not even a lack of cold when useful - it's a lack of cold entirely. This week is by far the coldest week we've had and it's still about on average. 

i agree, its almost fall like to me, until this week. I haven't even turned my heat on in the original part of my house

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Just now, canderson said:

It's not even a lack of cold when useful - it's a lack of cold entirely. This week is by far the coldest week we've had and it's still about on average. 

Yea, we need mid west bowling balls or SLP's to form in the Lower Miss Valley and take that (what used to be) normal trajectory of a North East progression....then we can use our moderately chilly air for something.  Pattern/schmattern it bewilders me that these type of systems are becoming so rare the last two years.  Even calling the one this weekend a Miller B is a stretch when the Primary is so far north of us before transfer.

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It's not even a lack of cold when useful - it's a lack of cold entirely. This week is by far the coldest week we've had and it's still about on average. 

Which means mid March till the last week in April will be nothing but highs in 30’s and 40’s then we go directly to the 80’s from May on. 1 week spring here we come.


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At least the storm depicted on the 12z GFS valid 2/1 is a beast. To Bubbler's point, there's still no cold air to be found, but unlike this weekend's fiasco it's taking a good track (as depicted on THIS model run) and a 976 low pressure MIGHT deliver enough dynamics for some fun. 

That's a crap ton of if's though. 

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37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

 

Because my area was on the cusp from the very beginning I have been noticing the trends on this one fairly closely and if you go back 2-3 days you will see the rain/snow line advancing further north if not every run at least every few runs.  So this may be one run but the trend has been several unfortunately.  

We think alike pal. Exactly what I’ve been doing. I spend lots And lots of toggle time on maps in search of trends. I do it with 500’s, thermals and surface evolution. 
 

This one started too close for the LSV Imo and didn’t take much to put many on edge. 

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The torch year of, what was is? 2012? Was it this miserable snow-wise? I feel like it was much, much warmer that winter, but I also feel like I've never felt this snow starved in my life. I'm 34, so I've lived through the big ones and have had some bad years, but this season just feels exceptionally bad.

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Just now, Atomixwx said:

The torch year of, what was is? 2012? Was it this miserable snow-wise? I feel like it was much, much warmer that winter, but I also feel like I've never felt this snow starved in my life. I'm 34, so I've lived through the big ones and have had some bad years, but this season just feels exceptionally bad.

Except for that really cold stretch I think it was generally much warmer last year as well but we had several lows come out of the Lower Miss Valley that eventually went just a tad too far to our west for all snow but still gave us a few front end dumps.  Not to mention the November snow.  

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2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

The torch year of, what was is? 2012? Was it this miserable snow-wise? I feel like it was much, much warmer that winter, but I also feel like I've never felt this snow starved in my life. I'm 34, so I've lived through the big ones and have had some bad years, but this season just feels exceptionally bad.

1997 I believe was the pinnacle of winter weather futility.  As I recall my largest snow that winter was 1.2"...

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50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Because my area was on the cusp from the very beginning I have been noticing the trends on this one fairly closely and if you go back 2-3 days you will see the rain/snow line advancing further north if not every run at least every few runs.  So this may be one run but the trend has been several unfortunately.  

Yea your right, I probably should have worded that better. They had been tightening up the snow zone toward the central third of the state NW of I-81, but that portion of the state had been pretty stable with strong ensemble support. Taking snow out of the AOO-UNV corridor and out of a lot of the north central as well was a pretty big shift today. Although I haven't seen the ensembles yet. 

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The torch year of, what was is? 2012? Was it this miserable snow-wise? I feel like it was much, much warmer that winter, but I also feel like I've never felt this snow starved in my life. I'm 34, so I've lived through the big ones and have had some bad years, but this season just feels exceptionally bad.

Oct 5.5”
Nov 0”
Dec 0.1”
Jan. 4.5”
Feb 2.4”
March 0”

Total 12.5”




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1997 I believe was the pinnacle of winter weather futility.  As I recall my largest snow that winter was 1.2"...

1994-1995 MDT had 9” for the season


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1993-1994 75.9”
1994-1995 9”
1995-1996 77.6”

Basically the least snowiest winter ever sandwiched by 2 of top 5 snowiest winters ever


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