ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's different with troughing out west though. These + busts may be harder to come by. I'm just being realistic. You have a better shot of hoping for a sneaky HP overrunning deal. OP Euro looks warm but the EPS and other guidance is actually offshore with that threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: OP Euro looks warm but the EPS and other guidance is actually offshore with that threat. Yeah, I meant more the extended range beyond that. Looks like lots of spread on EPS for the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I'm pretty skeptical of this weekend. At least in terms of siggy snow. Need a lot of things to go right. But an inch or two seems doable. Hopefully those 00z runs were onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, still blows for you. It is what it is. I average <30" down here, so most seasons blow. We tend not to get lucky breaks in a mediocre pattern, and certainly not in a hostile one. Them's the breaks on the southern coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 06z Euro looks to be phasing that ULL a bit faster over the TV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm pretty skeptical of this weekend. At least in terms of siggy snow. Need a lot of things to go right. But an inch or two seems doable. Hopefully those 00z runs were onto something. Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 06z Euro looks to be phasing that ULL a bit faster over the TV.. Yeah a bit warmer on the 6z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I see the Strat and PV weenies are talking about the possibility of some sort of disruption in Feb with a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 ULL still go out south of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Sort of Kev. The progressive nature of the pattern sort of squashes the ULL and causes a more elongated piece of vorticity that goes over and east of us. It's sort of a thread the needle...but maybe an inch or two possible. We'll see what 12z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I see the Strat and PV weenies are talking about the possibility of some sort of disruption in Feb with a -NAO. I buy that ...all in. Between February and March we should get a big NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The progressive pattern also may help limit cutter potential day 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I see the Strat and PV weenies are talking about the possibility of some sort of disruption in Feb with a -NAO. Just in time for a damp spring, yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Sort of Kev. The progressive nature of the pattern sort of squashes the ULL and causes a more elongated piece of vorticity that goes over and east of us. It's sort of a thread the needle...but maybe an inch or two possible. We'll see what 12z brings. Need the PNA ridge...ruins what could have been a blizzard. Inconsequential mixed mess likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just in time for a damp spring, yay. Sooner imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just in time for a damp spring, yay. Feb ain't a bad time for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I buy that ...all in. Between February and March we should get a big NAO. You think it translates downwards in Feb? Me thinks March is our best month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Feb ain't a bad time for it. Last season’s Jan SSW sure didn’t translate until spring. I wonder what Judah says about it this time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just in time for a damp spring, yay. It’s an early , warm spring this year. Winter ends 3rd or 4th week Feb in our forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You think it translates downwards in Feb? Me thinks March is our best month. Debatable...I could see either. I don't think February will suck, but maybe March is better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s an early , warm spring this year. Winter ends 3rd or 4th week Feb in our forecast Considering you’ve punted Jan, that gives us like 3 weeks of winter. So awesome, I’m tingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Considering you’ve punted Jan, that gives us like 3 weeks of winter. So awesome, I’m tingly. That’s why we said enjoy Dec and the first part of Feb. Jan be better after the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 EPS does look good for Sat nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Lots can change though between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I’ll go with the seasonal ‘you get a good sized stiff shaft’ trend for the southern zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS does look good for Sat nite That's a lot of spread leaning to off-shore. I don't think that we'd like to see that translation to the median/mean. EDIT: That might not look good for a good hit, but it may not be bad for the minor back-end flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS does look good for Sat nite If that ULL stays closed less than 534 right below us, one bite everyone knows the rules. And the 7th 8th is definitely not off the table. So one week, 2 threats. Next week after we ridge and dry. Thats how I read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lots can change though between now and then. This weekend is congrats powderfreak. We can maybe get a couple down here. I actually don't hate the 1/8 threat....I think op euro is too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This weekend is congrats powderfreak. We can maybe get a couple down here. I actually don't hate the 1/8 threat....I think op euro is too amped. I'd put 'a couple down here' as a congrats us given what we were anticipating 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This weekend is congrats powderfreak. We can maybe get a couple down here. I actually don't hate the 1/8 threat....I think op euro is too amped. I looked at the "cluster" graphics that Ventrice has for the ensembles. The 8th is all over the place from a GFS flat look, to the euro op, to offshore. I guess the good news is that the op run appeared to be on the warmest camp..like 20% of members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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