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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Now that’s bad. 

Woof. That’s horrendous for mid-late January. One run but yikes.

 

My WAG at the beginning my of the month is slowly turning sour. I really thought the west coast troughing would eventually retrograde as the West PAC ridge pushes into the higher latitudes. Hopefully disrupting that crappy zonal flow we’ve had a bunch. Just hasn’t happened and now with no -NAO help it’s hard to hold any cold air in place... the little bit that’s even around attm. We’ll score.....eventually.

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I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat.

Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again 

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat.

Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again 

Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. 

I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. 

I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much. 

This week was really the worst. I still haven't gotten over the game. Thought I at least had a great snow pattern to cheer me up. So much for that.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. 

I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much. 

2012-2013 wasn’t half bad here. Good around Christmas and then a really good March, over 20 that month

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

2012-2013 wasn’t half bad here. Good around Christmas and then a really good March, over 20 that month

Ack, meant 2016-17. Had 6.8” in 16-17 and 13.8” in 12-13 largely thanks to that mid March snow that was gone by 11am.

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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat.

Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again 

 

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. 

I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much. 

The guidance mishandling of the play between the tpv and North Atlantic vortex really mucked things up. That phasing and consolidating into Baffin vs splitting and sliding out forces the canadien ridge too far south and flipped the pattern on a dime. It was one thing...but a BIG thing.  Maybe one big thing will break in our favor one of these times.  

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat.

Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again 

I know you’re busy...and I’ll be having some quality time with the wife...so maybe we should let Mersky take the wheel for the weekend. I fully expect to return to phase 8 bliss... blizzard warnings and talk of new biblical classifications. 

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Just read the aforementioned Istotherm post.  Based on his analysis I am concluding that our best case scenarios is to catch some breaks and struggle to a merely bad winter, as opposed to atrocious.  It is still very much in play for me to get completely blanked this winter, for the first time since the 90's.  By blanked I mean not even laying eyes on a single flake/pellet of frozen precipitation.  In 2011-12 I at least saw a few sleet pellets.  

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11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Icon looks interesting for next weekend :weenie: :weenie: 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_60.png

GFS might try and get tricky too.  Much lower heights in the NE.

edit: not quite but it’s all we got going forward

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9 minutes ago, LP08 said:

GFS might try and get tricky too.  Much lower heights in the NE.

edit: not quite but it’s all we got going forward

Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it?

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it?

It’s got quite a bit to go. ICON had a very similar progression to the Euro.

 

keep watching up in NE for lowering heights near the 50/50 region.

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2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Icon looks interesting for next weekend :weenie: :weenie: 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_60.png


Well, that verbatim would be good for the ski areas, at least.  And they desperately need it.

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5 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Icon looks interesting for next weekend :weenie: :weenie: 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_60.png

It is only one run, but the ICON was never a fan of this weekend’s storm, so this makes me take notice.

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10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The guidance mishandling of the play between the tpv and North Atlantic vortex really mucked things up. That phasing and consolidating into Baffin vs splitting and sliding out forces the canadien ridge too far south and flipped the pattern on a dime. It was one thing...but a BIG thing.  Maybe one big thing will break in our favor one of these times.  

Guidance wasn't the only thing that mishandled plays this past week!!!!!!!!

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6 hours ago, mattskiva said:


Well, that verbatim would be good for the ski areas, at least.  And they desperately need it.

And that seems realistic. Antecedent temps and +anomalous 2m/850s preceding the storm generally dont bode well for the lower elevations. The banana high looks nice but this doesnt look like a SECS for the i95 cities (maybe BOS) at this time. 

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11 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat.

Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again 

So I got all of that sleep last week for my health I guess

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