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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i think one day we will look at 2018-2019 and say it was a good winter. We had one of our snowiest Januarys in a long time and there was multiple events. Feb sucked but Jan was great

I mostly missed that Jan storm. My 2 biggest snows were the November snow and the March one. But your point is legit. I liked 2018 better though. The 6” in mid December was nice and kind of a surprise. There was a super cold clipper storm in January. One half decent snow in February and then I ended the year with a bang in March. 3 accumulating snows and one of them 14” that stayed otg a week even late March . I ended that winter feeling really satisfied.  I had almost identical totals both years but last year felt “empty” for some reason. 

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Just now, Ji said:

LOL--PV in alaska with the most severe AO and NAO of all time but we got a PNA!

The only saving grace there would be hints the NAM state is flipping. Build the heights more over the top into GL and displace the trough out of the high latitudes and it could get better. But by then it’s mid Feb. let’s just hope that run smoked some funky stuff. 

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hard to tell because the North american map hasnt loaded but there looks to be a trough in the east. gfs-ens_z500a_us_55.png

 

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

but...

gfs-ens_z500a_ak_55.png

Naw at the end it’s heading the same way the eps and weeklies are.

904AE86C-44B1-4FBB-A03A-AF022DB74546.thumb.png.4079f270609ba96e874a496ad4f2b56c.png

And that’s not bad. But it sucks we might have to wait. Sucks more if it’s wrong and the op gfs is how this goes...

 

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Not much to look forward to the next two weeks looking at the overnight model runs. The ICON has hinted at a storm off the east coast around the 22nd but at H5 the ridging is in the middle of the country. Now if we could just move it westward around 800 miles.

 

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Starting to get an uneasy feeling about the remainder of January.  This look looks awfully familiar.  More troughs on the west coast and not even a hint of help on the Atlantic side.  Let's hope the GEFS/GEPS are correct for the period after day ten but the EPS has been degrading for the last several runs.

EPS 10 Day.png

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4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS Probability of 3 inches or more.   For DMV, EPS says we wait until the end of the month for our next bout of winter precip after this weekend.

BD789433-B775-439D-B521-A9C22A9517A7.png

That actually looks like an improvement over the maps you've been posting the last few days lol.

I do like that map. Thanks for posting them.

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36 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Starting to get an uneasy feeling about the remainder of January.  This look looks awfully familiar.  More troughs on the west coast and not even a hint of help on the Atlantic side.  Let's hope the GEFS/GEPS are correct for the period after day ten but the EPS has been degrading for the last several runs.

EPS 10 Day.png

Seems like EPS took that beastly Pacific ridge that was tormenting us and gradually shifted it over us.  

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7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

And that’s not bad. But it sucks we might have to wait. Sucks more if it’s wrong and the op gfs is how this goes...

 

The theme of the little things screwing us continues. Realistically with a look like that in Western Canada you would think the Atlantic might react better in the area near Greenland, instead look at that hot mess. The multi winter + NAO continues.  I was reading about the dynamic models versus the statistical models in terms of the HL call for the winter .  One model camp sure nailed it. Well, at least so far that is.   

I still have hope for February. The progression of sensible weather ,not necessarily how we got there, does seem to match Tom's progression nicely. If so, his ideas and the notion we pull back ridging in Feb and get an East Coast trough would spell opportunities for us.    

In this new day and age of non-analog winters and changing base states I would be happy with just a two week window of very cold and snowy weather. I don't even care if I don't hit average snowfall , give me 50 % of the season in two  weeks with cold and wind and make it look like days of old . To me that is a win. 

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Something to think about , this does coincide with a period of reduced zonal winds. However ,based on what I am hearing  and seeing  a true official SSWE is not likely this winter. 

The vortex is resilient and strong. But as HM mentions,  it does have a vacillation cycle near the 20th of the month.

 

 

Image

 

 

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Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020.

Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow )  and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years.   Just speculation there.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, frd said:

 

Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020.

Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow )  and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years.   Just speculation there.  

 

 

Yeah I was wondering why he said "the last two years" when the last half of 2019 appears to be the actual solar minimum?

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2 hours ago, frd said:

 

Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020.

Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow )  and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years.   Just speculation there.  

 

 

Check this out. Good overall presentation on NAM/ENSO/NAO and solar activity, and specifically addresses the solar/NAO correlation. Probably not what many would expect over the long term.

http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf

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2 hours ago, frd said:

 

Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020.

Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow )  and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years.   Just speculation there.  

 

 

 

 

@frd -- I posted updated thoughts in the main board and NYC forum which may be of interest re your inquiry.

 

Pre-season, I highlighted the fact that the westerly shear stress in the stratosphere/z30 would be obdurate [i.e., weakly positive QBO remains presently], and when coupled w/ suppressed solar backdrop and other proxies, actually favors a very stable vortex. In fact, that particular permutation most favors the stable vortex. Usually, disruptions don't occur until late winter. That, in concert with other variables accounted for in my NAO formula, indicated generally low-gepotential heights across the NAO/Arctic domain for this winter.

 

In my update post here, I discuss the remainder of the winter. I think most of February will probably be +NAO, but the window for NAO blocking would initiate late Feb-March if it does this particular year:

 

 

 

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GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things. 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things. 

Is it cold at least? Lol

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things. 

You  know, I actually can see and agree with what both you and @psuhoffman have been saying, though there is some disagreement between you in what you've both said.  PSU is absolutely right on the points that the pattern has not been the same since about mid-December, though the result for us doesn't seem much different (or improved!).  And I certainly can agree that we're getting into at least a somewhat more favorable look for the latter part of this month, definitely better than a total shutout.  But it's the details (ah, the devil is in there!) that can kill us...a shortwave here, a trough too far east there...and we get crap when not long before things looked better.  Likewise, what he said about our "base state" or climatology here is pretty well spot-on...we are not in a location that has high likelihood of snow year in and year out, in fact, it's not all that great of a probability on average.  It's really hit or miss here, you get hammered or get almost nothing.  It took me a few years living here to fully get that the "average snow" doesn't mean much because the variability is huge!  Coming from northeast Ohio, the variability is far less, so even a "meh" year typically isn't all that awful.

I also can definitely see and empathize with what you're saying.  From our perspective, it doesn't look like anything has really improved (I am now remembering that "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" scene, where Indy and his dad are in the fireplace, which rotates around, and his dad says "Our situation has not improved!").  The pattern is definitely quite different, but we're not seeing anything "good" (i.e., good snow chances) show up for us.  Not sure I'm fully on board with the storm persistence "memory" kind of thing, because if the pattern is not the same, then things aren't persistent by definition, I suppose.  But again, it sure seems that way whether true or not.  I don't know what it would take to do a "reshuffle" so that we're in a better spot here, or if such a thing would happen.  So much seems almost right, but just enough "off" to "F" things up.

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Me personally...I could think of much worse looks then this at 200 hrs . Yea...verbatim majority are too warm but the unanimous signal for a storm along the east coast this Gefs run keeps me tracking . Many coastals in the mix and its prime climo.  No need for a big anomalous cold airmass ...just cold enough 

f204.gif

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@C.A.P.E.

The solar correlation isn't as simply as some think.  On top of what that study showed, which is at times the correlation between solar and NAO have flipped, during the last 50 years there seems to be an opposite effect based on the QBO state.  The impact of the QBO on the PV seems to change based on the solar.  Unfortunately this year we had what we want during low solar, a descending transitioning QBO and it has yet to do us any good.  Isotherm brings up some interesting factors regarding AAM that I honestly have not done much research into and therefore do not factor into any of my calculations.  But what I noticed when I did look into his points some... was that the current state of some key circulations are opposite of what we would historically expect given current ENSO and other SST anomalies and indexes.  Things are out of phase...and perhaps that does explain some of the odd responses.  Like he suggests, some of these other factors being out of phase with what would typically be expected with a descending near neutral QBO in a warm neutral low solar...could be countermanding the typical response to such a state.  

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32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Me personally...I could think of much worse looks then this at 200 hrs . Yea...verbatim majority are too warm but the unanimous signal for a storm along the east coast this Gefs run keeps me tracking . Many coastals in the mix and its prime climo.  No need for a big anomalous cold airmass ...just cold enough 

f204.gif

I agree that it looks good at that specific moment, but the damage to temps has already been done.  I'm usually as optimistic as anyone on here, but with the storm starting so far west, temps have no chance to recover in time even once it transfers to the coastal.

GEFS 192.png

GEFS 204.png

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5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I agree that it looks good at that specific moment, but the damage to temps has already been done.  I'm usually as optimistic as anyone on here, but with the storm starting so far west, temps have no chance to recover in time even once it transfers to the coastal.

GEFS 192.png

GEFS 204.png

So basically it's just a bad track that screws us in what would otherwise be a decent area of opportunity?...(what's going on up top to cause that, and is there any chance it could recover?)

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Normally when you see this in January its drool worthy ...ends up being super close 87b06ea06057de93b79c30347cd4b55e.jpg

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