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nj2va

January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

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19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 What we need is swings right now...this weekend is one swing--maybe we get a single at best. 

The Phillies had a guy named Ryan Howard. He took lots of swings. Too many. He led the league in K's and set numerous strikeout records. After a while taking swings gets old and you need a homerun. He led the league in homeruns several years prior but never got the magic back. Is that where we are headed irt snow?

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2 hours ago, Ji said:

3 but but 4 hours of snow is not a real storm. We havent been able to get within 5 days of a real threat and its almost February. I am at an all time low with winter blues

Ji is a cross between Eeyore and Chicken Little.  so depressing!

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

crashes energy into the west and sets up a full latitude western trough eastern ridge...and leaves us in a total dumpster fire day 10.  LOL  

Similar to the issues last year at times. Little ROI in hobby land these days,  as Bob did the right thing focusing on the cha ching.

Maybe in Feb. we score as we hopefully progress to a more traditional Nino-ish pattern along with legitimate threats.  If we hit a great two week snow period we can still make up for lost time.   

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32 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea psu told me last year the 2 is like the default setting for the middle of winter

It is. So that says our chances for snow are about normal, which for us isn’t very good. Lol 

however hidden within that are 2 facts...most of that comes day 12-15 from a specific threat. So that specific time period has some promise.  And the pattern is mediocre but a slight adjustment from good. It’s not the same as a bad mean in a pattern with a ton of major flaws. 

That said it was a disappointing last 24 hours with the EPS.  It hasn’t radically shifted any features but imperfections within the pattern have shown up to limit the probabilities. 

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The Phillies had a guy named Ryan Howard. He took lots of swings. Too many. He led the league in K's and set numerous strikeout records. After a while taking swings gets old and you need a homerun. He led the league in homeruns several years prior but never got the magic back. Is that where we are headed irt snow?

I knew somebody was gonna come back with a cynical batting analogy, lol But think about it...after hitting the equivalent of 5 homers in 2010--but then, look how long it was in between then and 2014! Then boom, boom, boom...three above average winters in a row (with 2016 being a single homer that was a grand slam, lol). So now, here we are, 4 years later...and all it takes is one homerun (we've been here before)

I make the argument that there are other periods in our history where snow lovers could be (and probably were) quite cynical, fearing "oh, it may never snow again" (like the early to mid-70s), and then boom. 1977-78, and 1978-79. Then a big one in 1983. Then a layoff...1986-87. Etc...And the most recent trend is not going more than 4 years without getting a foot. Does that 100% guarantee anything? Not necessarily...but it is the most recent trend, so I'll ride with it unless it breaks! :D Point is...we've been here before!

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I knew somebody was gonna come back with a cynical batting analogy, lol But think about it...after hitting the equivalent of 5 homers in 2010--but then, look how long it was in between then and 2014! Then boom, boom, boom...three above average winters in a row (with 2016 being a single homer that was a grand slam, lol). So now, here we are, 4 years later...and all it takes is one homerun (we've been here before)

I make the argument that there are other periods in our history where snow lovers could be (and probably were) quite cynical, fearing "oh, it may never snow again" (like the early to mid-70s), and then boom. 1977-78, and 1978-79. Then a big one in 1983. Then a layoff...1986-87. Etc...And the most recent trend is not going more than 4 years without getting a foot. Does that 100% guarantee anything? Not necessarily...but it is the most recent trend, so I'll ride with it unless it breaks! :D Point is...we've been here before!

some times its all about expectations. Those of us who have many decades under our belts hardly knew what a snowstorm of over 6" was back in most of the 70's and  80's. We enjoyed our 3-6" snowstorms. Now with some blockbuster storms of the 90's and this century most arent happy with them. Always looking for that perfect pattern like 2009-10 that frankly will probably never happen again in our lifetime. And there are some winters like 82-83 that was awful but had one great storm that still is a fond memory of mine. The pattern the next two weeks is much better than anything we have seen this winter but if you are looking for the big dog. you probably are wasting your time. But if you still enjoy smaller snows like were the norm years ago. you might be happy. 

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Great update from Don S . 

Here it is courtesy 33:

<<

By now, the above normal height anomalies shown on the closing days of the operational ECMWF have likely gained notice. Those height anomalies and the accompanying temperature rebound are well-supported.


The 12z GEFS is in good agreement with the 12z operational ECMWF at 240 hours. However, by the end of the GEFS run, the area of above normal height anomalies retrogrades toward western Canada and a trough takes shape in the East.


0116202012z.jpg


My thinking has been and, at least for now, remains as noted in my nearly daily discussions of the longer-term pattern evolution:


During the coming weekend, colder temperatures are likely. The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February.
Obviously, the situation bears watching. At least for me, I will need to see more evidence that the change is not a temporary period of moderation (highlighted above) during a transition toward a more sustained period of cold.


The evolution of the teleconnections and progression of the MJO will provide insight over the next week.


If people want something gloomy to consider, January 1-15, 1998 had a mean temperature of 43.3° (2020 was 42.7°) in New York City. February 1998 went on to have a mean temperature of 40.6°.


If people want something more appealing to consider, January 1-15, 1907 had a mean temperature of 43.5°. February 1907 had a mean temperature of 25.9° and monthly snowfall of 21.8".

>>

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That's not true...but it was a pretty bad run.  It really goes crazy with the ridge in the northeast day 7-11 and its lights out on any chance there.... then there are a scattering of hits in the day 12-15 range but nothing to the level of the GEFS and GEPS.  The pattern looks close enough to workable that it's not out of the question something changes and we sneak a threat in but the last couple EPS runs have not been friendly.  

Do you put a lot of faith into GEFS and GEPS? I feel like it has weenie crushed all winter long. There were a couple really good "false" events it showed and was darn consistent and then got destroyed by the Euro. I feel like at this point it can either prove the Euro wrong for once this winter or the Euro is just that good. I guess time will tell. 

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1 hour ago, WeatherPSU said:

High hopes yesterday with the long range to low hopes today.  

Welcome to Mid-Atlantic winter climo.

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1 hour ago, Mersky said:

some times its all about expectations. Those of us who have many decades under our belts hardly knew what a snowstorm of over 6" was back in most of the 70's and  80's. We enjoyed our 3-6" snowstorms. Now with some blockbuster storms of the 90's and this century most arent happy with them. Always looking for that perfect pattern like 2009-10 that frankly will probably never happen again in our lifetime. And there are some winters like 82-83 that was awful but had one great storm that still is a fond memory of mine. The pattern the next two weeks is much better than anything we have seen this winter but if you are looking for the big dog. you probably are wasting your time. But if you still enjoy smaller snows like were the norm years ago. you might be happy. 

Well stated. 

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36 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Do you put a lot of faith into GEFS and GEPS? I feel like it has weenie crushed all winter long. There were a couple really good "false" events it showed and was darn consistent and then got destroyed by the Euro. I feel like at this point it can either prove the Euro wrong for once this winter or the Euro is just that good. I guess time will tell. 

I don’t put a lot of faith in anything past day 10. The EPS isn’t great but it’s a small adjustment from either good or bad. There will be adjustments. We will see. 

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I knew somebody was gonna come back with a cynical batting analogy, lol But think about it...after hitting the equivalent of 5 homers in 2010--but then, look how long it was in between then and 2014! Then boom, boom, boom...three above average winters in a row (with 2016 being a single homer that was a grand slam, lol). So now, here we are, 4 years later...and all it takes is one homerun (we've been here before)

I make the argument that there are other periods in our history where snow lovers could be (and probably were) quite cynical, fearing "oh, it may never snow again" (like the early to mid-70s), and then boom. 1977-78, and 1978-79. Then a big one in 1983. Then a layoff...1986-87. Etc...And the most recent trend is not going more than 4 years without getting a foot. Does that 100% guarantee anything? Not necessarily...but it is the most recent trend, so I'll ride with it unless it breaks! :D Point is...we've been here before!

I have been thinking about this....The first big storm I remember is 1978, when I was 10.  Going years without a big snowstorm is nothing new around here.  09-10 was a miracle.

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27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I have been thinking about this....The first big storm I remember is 1978, when I was 10.  Going years without a big snowstorm is nothing new around here.  14-15 was a miracle.

Yeah and getting back-to-back-to-back 30+" seasons was kinda rare too, lol (although some, for some strange reason, like to discount 2016 because it all came at once!). So this snow "drought" really isn't anything major by historical standards!

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cfs says mid Feb is worth waiting for 

71155B5F-D5A4-4CD8-A736-CF7D11DEE02C.thumb.png.39361e17eb9179ee24fb9e3b0a4b4527.png

I mean it has to be right eventually 

Calling it now.....The Great VD Storm of 2020! (VD=Valentine's Day not to be confused with Venereal Disease)

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Calling it now.....The Great VD Storm of 2020! (VD=Valentine's Day not to be confused with Venereal Disease)

I don't know man...the way this season has gone, you never know!! :lol:

But joking aside, I guess (???) it's nice that the Euro weeklies looked good (according to what @psuhoffman said earlier), and that the CFS keeps indicating a cold February.  We'll see.

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19 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Only when it depicts a dumpster fire.

Seriously - when was the last time the GFS, EPS, or CFS were even close to being in the ballpark when they showed blocking galore in the long range?

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Just now, SteveRDU said:

Seriously - when was the last time the GFS, EPS, or CFS were even close to being in the ballpark when they showed blocking galore in the long range?

March 2018. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 2018. 

And that pattern lived up to the hype but it feels like it’s been nothing but massive whiffs ever since.

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And that pattern lived up to the hype but it feels like it’s been nothing but massive whiffs ever since.
March 2018 was to much Sun Angle. This year will whiff again and keep chasing until next November

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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22 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

March 2018 was to much Sun Angle. This year will whiff again and keep chasing until next November

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

“Whiff again?”  What exactly are you chasing?  March 2018 produced a warning level snowfall. Last year was a near normal snow year with several snowfalls. So what is the “again”?  Or do you mean you are chasing the rare winter like 1996/2003/2010/2014 when it snows easy and often. If so yea this probably ain’t it.  But is there a good chance it will snow again some this year...yea. Some of us are chasing that. 

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

“Whiff again?”  What exactly are you chasing?  March 2018 produced a warning level snowfall. Last year was a near normal snow year with several snowfalls. So what is the “again”?  Or do you mean you are chasing the rare winter like 1996/2003/2010/2014 when it snows easy and often. If so yea this probably ain’t it.  But is there a good chance it will snow again some this year...yea. Some of us are chasing that. 

i think one day we will look at 2018-2019 and say it was a good winter. We had one of our snowiest Januarys in a long time and there was multiple events. Feb sucked but Jan was great

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It’s an op at super long range but the gfs is the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen at day 15. 

D86C90ED-BD68-47D4-AABE-A75AF547823B.thumb.png.b63711ceae88fa7051872779590d5249.png

Just over 24 hours ago was that epic double hit snow run. This one has no more chance of being right. Let’s hope 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s an op at super long range but the gfs is the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen at day 15. 

D86C90ED-BD68-47D4-AABE-A75AF547823B.thumb.png.b63711ceae88fa7051872779590d5249.png

Just over 24 hours ago was that epic double hit snow run. This one has no more chance of being right. Let’s hope 

LOL--PV in alaska with the most severe AO and NAO of all time but we got a PNA!

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