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The 4 Seasons

Wednesday 12/11 SNE Snow Threat

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Just now, It's Always Sunny said:

Cashing in on that frontoband and looks like a nice s/w at 850mb...

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Yeah this is going to be a pretty epic bust by me. Don’t really see signs of dry air working in either 

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Just now, It's Always Sunny said:

Yeah steering flow looks like it is straight out of the SW. How much did you call for in CT I must've missed that post.

Up to a coating lol 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Up to a coating lol 

Eh it happens to everyone I wouldn't sweat it.

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Did you make a call?

No not officially but I was thinking generally 1-3" for most, maybe a couple isolated 4" amounts. 

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Just now, It's Always Sunny said:

Eh it happens to everyone I wouldn't sweat it.

No not officially but I was thinking generally 1-3" for most, maybe a couple isolated 4" amounts. 

Yeah it’s all good. Can’t get upset. In these situations where there are mixed signals you pick a stance and go with it. In this instance I opted to go for dry air winning out. It’s all good 

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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Jesus, that fast. WCSU West Side Campus i assume...aren't they like 700ft up (Grosso that is)

Yeah...my friend posted video from Pinney. But I have another friend who lives in Chestnut Apartments near Midtown and she even said at least 2” 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah it’s all good. Can’t get upset. In these situations where there are mixed signals you pick a stance and go with it. In this instance I opted to go for dry air winning out. It’s all good 

Yeah that's what I was leery of. That pocket of 850mb dry air was peppered all along the front from New England to Texas so it was tough to commit to who would get screwed and who wouldn't.

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1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Yeah that's what I was leery of. That pocket of 850mb dry air was peppered all along the front from New England to Texas so it was tough to commit to who would get screwed and who wouldn't.

Even now looking at radar. Been watching the western edge for signs of dry air. When it seems like it starts to get eaten away it quickly fills back in. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Even now looking at radar. Been watching the western edge for signs of dry air. When it seems like it starts to get eaten away it quickly fills back in. 

Low level water vapor loop has all the dry air off to the south over central NJ moving NE.  GFS soundings do show that dry air making its way in within the next couple hours but NAM has a different idea keeping column fully saturated until just about daybreak.

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Just now, It's Always Sunny said:

Low level water vapor loop has all the dry air off to the south over central NJ moving NE.  GFS soundings do show that dry air making its way in within the next couple hours but NAM has a different idea keeping column fully saturated until just about daybreak.

Might Be starting to see influences now. Noticed radar lightening up a bit in CT outside of the heavy band near the NY/CT border.

I think Scott mentioned two maxes...one near W CT and another NE CT into MA...might work out very well 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Might Be starting to see influences now. Noticed radar lightening up a bit in CT outside of the heavy band near the NY/CT border.

I think Scott mentioned two maxes...one near W CT and another NE CT into MA...might work out very well 

Actually looking at GR2 if you toggle different radar tilts you can see some of the dry air pockets so it's definitely there, just waiting for it to start eroding some of that precip which with those moderate bands may be hard to do in the near term. 

I remember Scott mentioning that I'll have to look back and see what he was looking at.

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2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Actually looking at GR2 if you toggle different radar tilts you can see some of the dry air pockets so it's definitely there, just waiting for it to start eroding some of that precip which with those moderate bands may be hard to do in the near term. 

I remember Scott mentioning that I'll have to look back and see what he was looking at.

The NW part of the state has the be getting drilled. Wouldn’t be surprised if some towns there have like 3-4” already...maybe close to 5

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