E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Long range looks awful

Not 'awful'....just not conducive to a BIG DOG. Also the key features are misplaced by a few hundred miles. EC trof ends up centered on the coast, WC ridge is slightly east of where we like, etc. Split flow with the PV around could still yield overrunning systems. Going to be a waiting game tho to try and forecast those in a West Coast split. LR looks wont show up.

[The Iceman]

 

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not 'awful'....just not conducive to a BIG DOG. Also the key features are misplaced by a few hundred miles. EC trof ends up centered on the coast, WC ridge is slightly east of where we like, etc. Split flow with the PV around could still yield overrunning systems. Going to be a waiting game tho to try and forecast those in a West Coast split. LR looks wont show up.

6z GFS has the big dog...only 276 hours to go.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

6z GFS has the big dog...only 276 hours to go.

Focusing medium range. Clipper-type disturbance at 138-144. Not sure if it will keep showing up or even stay together in the fast NS flow but basically all we have in the medium range.

[zenmsav6810]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Focusing medium range. Clipper-type disturbance at 138-144. Not sure if it will keep showing up or even stay together in the fast NS flow but basically all we have in the medium range.

At this point we will take it, even if it isn't our best look. Hopefully that one doesn't upset the apple cart on the 276 hr Big Dog. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

At this point we will take it, even if it isn't our best look. Hopefully that one doesn't upset the apple cart on the 276 hr Big Dog. 

I'm guilty of looking ahead at times but in this pattern with a fast NS with transient HL ridging we will benefit from focusing on 240 and under (180 and under better) and taking one wave / system at a time. Surprises tend to pop up with these looks next 5 day to a week.

[zenmsav6810]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm guilty of looking ahead at times but in this pattern with a fast NS with transient HL ridging we will benefit from focusing on 240 and under (180 and under better) and taking one wave / system at a time. Surprises tend to pop up with these looks next 5 day to a week.

in truth, aren't we all

[RedSky]

For a week GFS showed the arctic flood gates crashing open starting this weekend. Hope they get that issue fixed in the off season. 

 

[J.P.]

Wind has arrived in Exton. Just had a gust to 34. 

[RedSky]

Three waves of cold coming on the GFS. The current one, the one post storm and a third arrives Tuesday. But the last wave doesn't exist on the ECM  and likely won't happen.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Three waves of cold coming on the GFS. The current one, the one post storm and a third arrives Tuesday. But the last wave doesn't exist on the ECM  and likely won't happen.

 

Euro, EpS, and DT just cancelled winter 

[RedSky]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro, EpS, and DT just cancelled winter 

I have some potential now of following up my worst winter with one that is worse, a difficult feat but quantifiable now

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

I have some potential now of following up my worst winter with one that is worse, a difficult feat but quantifiable now

 

 

I think collectively we can do this if we will it to happen. Next year our goal will be 0" then 21-22 the sky is the limit. Seriously tho we need a strong old fashioned raging Nino to reshuffle the deck.

[RedSky]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I think collectively we can do this if we will it to happen. Next year our goal will be 0" then 21-22 the sky is the limit. Seriously tho we need a strong old fashioned raging Nino to reshuffle the deck.

We all need better locations now for snow, or a better planet. Dialing Elon to see if the warp drive program is advancing.

 

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

I have some potential now of following up my worst winter with one that is worse, a difficult feat but quantifiable now

 

 

Gonna have to come up with a new name for it in that case!

[RedSky]

48 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Gonna have to come up with a new name for it in that case!

 The great American double dumb azz winters of 2018-2020

 

[KamuSnow]

39 minutes ago, RedSky said:

 The great American double dumb azz winters of 2018-2020

 

Made me think of "the double dutch bus", lol.

[Tatamy]

Just had a blinding snow squall come through Bethlehem which has put down a coating.  Not sure how far south it gets but it means business.  Temperature has dropped to 31*.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

Made me think of "the double dutch bus", lol.

Double doink

[ChescoWx]

Picked up 0.3" of snow with the squall that came through around 10pm temp down to 30.5

[Ralph Wiggum]

Wiggum Rule strikes again....flakes were flying throughout SE PA tonight with a few spots picking up light accums. GFS/Euro say we could  make another run at 60 next weekend.

[penndotguy]

27 dp 6  wind chill 15, sun is not helping much today its nice to have some sort of winter back

[Rtd208]

Cold day out there, current temp 28/DP 3

[The Iceman]

Just reached 30F here. Will be interesting if we hit the freezing mark. Forecasted high was 33F. Projected to get down to 17F tonight. Should have great radiational cooling conditions with no wind and mostly clear skies for most of the night. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Dont need no stinking computer generated map to tell me this is some serious HP settling in. It is cold, breeze out of the N, and the sky has that classic deep blue look to it with nary a cloud in sight.  Radiational cooling tonight and the stage is set for tomorrow. Doubt it will be the last frozen of the season but certainly the biggest so far. Savor it like we wont see it again until next season.

[zenmsav6810]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dont need no stinking computer generated map to tell me this is some serious HP settling in. It is cold, breeze out of the N, and the sky has that classic deep blue look to it with nary a cloud in sight.  Radiational cooling tonight and the stage is set for tomorrow. Doubt it will be the last frozen of the season but certainly the biggest so far. Savor it like we wont see it again until next season.

It would be a blue bird day out on the slopes .... IF WE HAD SOME SNOW!!! 

[I Like Snow]

I have invested a week of my life to Saturday’s weather.

 

I could have done something more productive.

Uhggg.

[The Iceman]

2 hours ago, I Like Snow said:

I have invested a week of my life to Saturday’s weather.

 

 

 

I could have done something more productive.

 

Uhggg.

 

Cherish it. These 1-2" should feel like 1-2ft. Could be the last snow of winter.

[Rtd208]

Current temp 21/DP 2

[ChasingFlakes]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Cherish it. These 1-2" should feel like 1-2ft. Could be the last snow of winter.

Dont forget about March.  

 

I'm off Sunday so I am planning to head up to either blue mtn or elk.  It almost seems like elk is missing some of the QPF to the south on models, but they will stay much colder than blue so ratios will likely be better.

Also planning a NE trip next weekend.  Looks like there will be something over the weekend,  hopefully it comes together throughout the week.  Playing it by ear but will likely end up in NH and VT.

[Hurricane Agnes]

On 1/16/2020 at 8:28 PM, KamuSnow said:

Made me think of "the double dutch bus", lol.

That song was a riot and done by a local Philly singer too.

8 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Dont forget about March. 

Philly area has become the "new Colorado" with "spring snow".

My "high" yesterday was at midnight and was 33... and after that it dropped and never rose above 30 the rest of the day, with the "low" of 21 happening at midnight on the other end of the day.  It bottomed out this morning (so far) at 21 (closer to 20 @ 20.5, than to 21), but has nudged up a bit to 22 and overcast.  The dp of 7 at the moment, is truly arctic.