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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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Just now, Snow88 said:

This is supposed to stop tomorrow.  Like I said , there will be multiple bands. I see no reason for panic right now. 

No panic here, not expecting much. These bands are fickle beasts.

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Please stop with the model/radar hallucinations. 

This is the latest 6 runs of the HRRR through 00z Tuesday. As you can see, just some very minor shifts but nothing noteworthy.

tKgBs1E.gif

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Please stop with the model/radar hallucinations. 

This is the latest 6 runs of the HRRR through 00z Tuesday. As you can see, just some very minor shifts but nothing noteworthy.

tKgBs1E.gif

For NYC and LI this should still be going after 0Z

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4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I'm not so sure, swinging slightly westward. Need some of that convective stuff over the water to swing through 

The area rarely does well under convective snows. Most locations outside of the main band are going to get skunked. The next few hours will be telling to see where it sets up which in the early stage, looks like to be west of the city.

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Just now, mikem81 said:

For NYC and LI this should still be going after 0Z

It will be, but the HRRR is a very short term model. Anything beyond a few hours is very unreliable. 

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Just now, kat5hurricane said:

The area rarely does well under convective snows. Most locations outside of the main band are going to get skunked. The next few hours will be telling to see where it sets up which in the early stage, looks like to be west of the city.

Which is why I don't expect much. Banding often slightly west of modeling IMO 

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Which is why I don't expect much. Banding often slightly west of modeling IMO 

You downplay  during every storm. Relax and breathe man :)

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

12z HRDPS has 6+ for NYC , central LI , CNJ and areas just to the west.

Last four runs. Keep in mind the first two runs are counting a lot of snow that has already fallen to our North.

h3ZSnql.gif

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2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The area rarely does well under convective snows. Most locations outside of the main band are going to get skunked. The next few hours will be telling to see where it sets up which in the early stage, looks like to be west of the city.

All the models have it near NYC  and in NJ. Radar looks good. Let's see where we are in a few hours. 

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1043 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

NJZ007>010-012-015-021630-
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Warren-Mercer-
1043 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

...AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW IS AFFECTING HUNTERDON...SOUTHWESTERN
MORRIS...SOUTHERN WARREN...MERCER...SOMERSET AND WESTERN MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES...

At 1040 AM EST, an area of heavier snow continues to slowly move
across portions of Mercer County, western Middlesex County northward
to Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris and into Warren counties.

Snowfall rates up to an inch per hour will result in an increase in
accumulations on untreated surfaces and also significantly reduce
the visibility. Remember, bridges and overpasses tend to be colder
and therefore be more slippery.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared that roads may become quickly snow covered during heavier
bursts of snow. Slow down and allow extra time when traveling.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, New Brunswick, Somerville, Somerset, East Brunswick,
Bridgewater, South Brunswick, North Brunswick, Ewing, Dover,
Middlesex, Princeton, Bound Brook, Manville, Hackettstown, Wharton,
Washington, Rockaway, Jamesburg and Hightstown.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 195 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 6.
 Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 8 and 33.
 Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 59 and 76.
 Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 8 and 39.
 Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 25 and 35.
 New Jersey Turnpike between exits 8A and 9.
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Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1106 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

ANZ471-021645-
/O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0198.000000T0000Z-191202T1645Z/
1106 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EST...

For the following areas...
Waters from Manasquan Inlet NJ to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 to 40
nm...

At 1106 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
waterspouts was located 26 nm east of Garden State North Reef. The
severe thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Waterspouts, wind gusts to 40 knots, and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly
         higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

The severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly open waters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily
overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor
immediately.
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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1106 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

ANZ471-021645-
/O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0198.000000T0000Z-191202T1645Z/
1106 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EST...

For the following areas...
Waters from Manasquan Inlet NJ to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 to 40
nm...

At 1106 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
waterspouts was located 26 nm east of Garden State North Reef. The
severe thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Waterspouts, wind gusts to 40 knots, and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly
         higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

The severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly open waters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily
overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor
immediatel

Definitely interesting to see waterspouts mentioned.

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

You people are hilarious. These bands will not be stationary for 15 hours. It's clearly filling eastward. Have fun teetering on the precipice. 

Disagree. This isn't your typical noreaster/coastal storm where the low is moving East or Northeast. The ULL is basically cut off. Think of this system in the same way you would a firehose of convection in the Spring/Summer from a cutoff low.

500mb.gif?1575304104241

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19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Please stop with the model/radar hallucinations. 

This is the latest 6 runs of the HRRR through 00z Tuesday. As you can see, just some very minor shifts but nothing noteworthy.

tKgBs1E.gif

This is going to be so hit or miss, later today you will have people in some locations screaming wow and others screaming bust even though logic tells you sign up for the 1-3 and a small area will get the better banding

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To my untrained eye, that mass of convection off the southern nj coast is starting to blow up and move NW into NJ and points North and east. 

This might be a surprise of goods. 

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6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

To my untrained eye, that mass of convection off the southern nj coast is starting to blow up and move NW into NJ and points North and east. 

This might be a surprise of goods. 

Tons of convection over the coast south of LI now. The storm will tilt NW to SE and its really impossible to know how wide the band or bands will be as the storms tilts and then slowly  goes east..

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12KM NAM as far as the R/S line is closest as of 17Z but I do not buy its idea of big snows 00-06Z for LGA/NYC region as I think this thing is already giving way and weakening by then

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

12KM NAM as far as the R/S line is closest as of 17Z but I do not buy its idea of big snows 00-06Z for LGA/NYC region as I think this thing is already giving way and weakening by then

Every model has several inches for the area 

It's not even snowing yet in the city

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Started snowing lightly here around 10:30 am at 33F and had a dusting as of 11:00 am.  Snowing moderately here now with 1/4" OTG as of 11:30 am - it took awhile to overcome the melting, especially with the very wet ground, but now snow is accumulating on all surfaces including paved ones; in addition, temps have dropped from 33F to 32F.  

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16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Disagree. This isn't your typical noreaster/coastal storm where the low is moving East or Northeast. The ULL is basically cut off. Think of this system in the same way you would a firehose of convection in the Spring/Summer from a cutoff low.

500mb.gif?1575304104241

This is true to a certain extent. But it's also a redeveloping Low, from off the Island to the Cape. This definitely gives a minor degree of risk that the firehose you speak of will 'jump' certain areas, but it also means it's being dragged east somewhat, which has been modeled, and is already evident on radar, therefore mitigating this risk. 

The bigger problem, IMO, lies in the firehose's rotation, especially if it inverts totally. That would risk undercutting the city. But I don't see that happening to the degree of a total whiff. I think there will be at least a couple inches here if not more. But if you were referring to those ready to jump over not getting 6+, I can see your point. 

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3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

This is true to a certain extent. But it's also a redeveloping Low, from off the Island to the Cape. This definitely gives a minor degree of risk that the firehose you speak of will 'jump' certain areas, but it also means it's being dragged east somewhat, which has been modeled, and is already evident on radar, therefore mitigating this risk. 

The bigger problem, IMO, lies in the firehose's rotation, especially if it inverts totally. That would risk undercutting the city. But I don't see that happening to the degree of a total whiff. I think there will be at least a couple inches here if not more. But if you were referring to those ready to jump over not getting 6+, I can see your point. 

Yes it's going to eventually move East. Once the low fills and weakens it will begin moving East. 

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13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Started snowing lightly here around 10:30 am at 33F and had a dusting as of 11:00 am.  Snowing moderately here now with 1/4" OTG as of 11:30 am - it took awhile to overcome the melting, especially with the very wet ground, but now snow is accumulating on all surfaces including paved ones; in addition, temps have dropped from 33F to 32F.  

Snowing close to heavily now here at 32F with 1/2" on the ground as of noon.  Gorgeous out there folks - go take a Jebwalk  Accumulating well on all surfaces now, which is easy at this rate and with the low sun angle.  

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I wouldn’t worry yet East of the city about the precip-the low is slowly sliding East and heavy precip looks like it’s rotating NW towards the island. Overall nice trends today-hopefully many of us have 3-6” later today. 

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