CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 BOX map looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: BOX map looks pretty good. Yeah, i have a feeling im going to be pretty conservative with this storm, lots of ways this can bust, lead time for rd 2 is still aways away and the analogs aren't impressing me. With the surface low tucked in like that and so close to us its always been a lose-lose, either a huge slot punches up through central and eastern CT or we change over for an extended period and end as snow, seen it in so many storm. NAM looks pretty dry for an extended period around here over H8. I'll look at things more closely and wait till 12z to make a call. 6Z GFS is pretty gross, good thing its the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 00Z NAM giveth, 06z NAM taketh. I will take the 06z NAM all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will take the 06z NAM all day long. The 00z was better for you I thought no? In any case, that was fantasy. 6z GFS had a pretty good front end. Nice ending in ern areas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The 00z was better for you I thought no? In any case, that was fantasy. 6z GFS had a pretty good front end. Nice ending in ern areas too. 00z gave me 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Goofus looked a bit better/ colder here. Expecting 6-10 range depending on mixing, backside banding etc as this area seems to be "riding the line" so to speak with the mixing /rain and dry slotting issues that are more pronounced and prolonged the further SE you go in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 00z gave me 8". That seems strange, you were like 2" QPF and that run was colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Can someone post the 6z gfs please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That seems strange, you were like 2" QPF and that run was colder. NVM.....wrong image. Adapting to a less user-friendly package with a newborn is tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: NVM.....wrong image. Adapting to a less user-friendly package with a newborn is tough. All good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Can someone post the 6z gfs please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I am still thinking 8-12 in N CT. Probably a lot of 10” amounts is my thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I am still thinking 8-12 in N CT. Probably a lot of 10” amounts is my thinking I think I had you near the edge of 6-10" and 10-16". Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4-8 for N CT seems right, room to go higher or lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: 4-8 for N CT seems right, room to go higher or lower I thought Ryan's map was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I'll look for Ryan's map. For this area, jmo heavy caution flags waving south of the pike/ E MA/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 hours ago, dendrite said: This is what we do. As soon as we start to see model consensus they start spiraling into the abyss. I feel like we are always in an abyss up here :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought Ryan's map was good. With the SE trends coming that’ll change ti 8-12” . Round 2 has always been when we get the 6+. Round 1 is only 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: 4-8 for N CT seems right, room to go higher or lower I think there's a W to E component as well. NW CT Litchfield county hills 9-12+ up near the Ma line while the rest of N CT is more like 6-10, I would go 4-8 more in Central CT near I- 84 but that's splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Is this updated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: With the SE trends coming that’ll change ti 8-12” . Round 2 has always been when we get the 6+. Round 1 is only 1-3 I'll sell that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, CTValleySnowMan said: I think there's a W to E component as well. NW CT Litchfield county hills 9-12+ up near the Ma line while the rest of N CT is more like 6-10, I would go 4-8 more in Central CT near I- 84 but that's splitting hairs. Yeah, I was going to go into more detail but that is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I'm leary of backside snow, especially here in the valley. I feel like I consistently see bands of snow over the western hills that rot there and pivot and than weaken as they push eastward as a system is occluding and weakening. Sometimes the band reforms over the Massif or the eastern hills. I'd rather take my chances on CAD and my lattitude in the valley for a longer front end thumping or a slower mixing process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Well, heading out to soccer tourney in Lancaster. Ma. 8:00 game today and 8:00, 11:00 tomorow. Should be pleasant to stand in 20’s and wind . Enjoy the SE trends as they come in on 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well, heading out to soccer tourney in Lancaster. Ma. 8:00 game today and 8:00, 11:00 tomorow. Should be pleasant to stand in 20’s and wind . Enjoy the SE trends as they come in on 12z runs. Win the tourney and bring the trophy, good vibe, and 12+ snow amounts back home with you. Hopefully we do get a couple of SE ticks at showtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Some torchy mid levels on the NAM run, whew. Paint chipping off cars sleet storm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Some torchy mid levels on the NAM run, whew. Paint chipping off cars sleet storm tomorrow. That is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is wrong. Valid 18z Monday. Hell of a ways to go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Let the SE ticks commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is wrong. Most likely. Was just shocked to see how warm the mid-levels were with that heavy WAA precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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