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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

BOX map looks pretty good.

Yeah, i have a feeling im going to be pretty conservative with this storm, lots of ways this can bust, lead time for rd 2 is still aways away and the analogs aren't impressing me. With the surface low tucked in like that and so close to us its always been a lose-lose, either a huge slot punches up through central and eastern CT or we change over for an extended period and end as snow, seen it in so many storm. NAM looks pretty dry for an extended period around here over H8. I'll look at things more closely and wait till 12z to make a call.

6Z GFS is pretty gross, good thing its the worst.

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I'm leary of backside snow, especially here in the valley. I feel like I consistently see bands of snow over the western hills that rot there and pivot and than weaken as they push eastward as a system is occluding and weakening. Sometimes the  band reforms over the Massif or the eastern hills.  I'd rather take my chances on CAD and my lattitude in the valley for a longer front end thumping or a slower mixing process.  

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well, heading out to soccer tourney in Lancaster. Ma. 8:00 game today and 8:00, 11:00 tomorow. Should be pleasant to stand in 20’s and wind . Enjoy the SE trends as they come in on 12z runs. 

Win the tourney and bring the trophy,  good vibe, and 12+ snow amounts back home with you.  Hopefully we do get a couple of SE ticks at showtime. 

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