Furrawn Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I am so happy about snow!!! After last year where it seemed like every storm had a weather pattern against us, it’s wonderful to see changes going in a positive direction... I hope this is the beginning of a very snowy winter for all of us! ⛄️❄️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 GFS finally makes an appearance - F They need to call up the old retired GFS the new guy is not serviceable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Furrawn said: I am so happy about snow!!! After last year where it seemed like every storm had a weather pattern against us, it’s wonderful to see changes going in a positive direction... I hope this is the beginning of a very snowy winter for all of us! ⛄️❄️ Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Don't count your chickens before they hatch. This - nothing to 8" is in play here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS too Do you think the gfs is Trending towards the them and nam with the band being more focused over central jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 If i had to pick a guidance map at this time this is it I didn't have a 2" snow last winter until March and then just barely, so this is also winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Temp on the way up here 35 now with plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 One would expect some consensus to form 0z with part one concluding and less than 24hrs for the snow portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 36 minutes ago, RedSky said: If i had to pick a guidance map at this time this is it I didn't have a 2" snow last winter until March and then just barely, so this is also winning I think this solution is off the table table at this point. All of the Mesoscale models and now even the goofus show the CNJ death banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 HRDPS goes off on Eastern PA and CNJ. RGEM and NAM in tight agreement. GFS now starting to pick up on this well. I think it's overdone, but I'm thinking 6-10" is quite possible under the area this band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Don't count your chickens before they hatch. You’re right. I do know Though that we might get nothing... after last winter, I’ve been trained to expect the least (no snow at all), but I tend to be naturally optimistic and idealistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: HRDPS goes off on Eastern PA and CNJ. RGEM and NAM in tight agreement. GFS now starting to pick up on this well. I think it's overdone, but I'm thinking 6-10" is quite possible under the area this band sets up. I have no problem at all with that 24” over my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I was in the 34 - 35 temp range much of the day until later this afternoon when the temps started creeping up to 37, which is my current temp (with light drizzle/mist). Have picked up 0.53" so far today but didn't see any flakes or ip.... at least yet. Have also been semi-following the wild model gyrations trying to deal with the coastal and where it sets up. I expect there may be some surprised folks tomorrow if this all verifies. Even Amazon seemed to realize something was up when when they sent out another delivery truck and I received a couple packages about 30 minutes ago that were due for delivery tomorrow that they went on and delivered today (about 15 minutes after I received today's expected deliveries)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 New Mt Holly map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, _AR_ said: New Mt Holly map. Not much has changed. Maybe after the evening model runs, they may increase totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 18z euro got people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: 18z euro got people No details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: No details? From the little I saw it doesn't effect SEPA but it screws eastern Monmouth and NYC. Makes little sense that an eastern move would do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 49 minutes ago, RedSky said: From the little I saw it doesn't effect SEPA but it screws eastern Monmouth and NYC. Makes little sense that an eastern move would do that. Well people probably shouldn't look at the NAM then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well people probably shouldn't look at the NAM then What’s it show for NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, NJsnow89 said: What’s it show for NJ? Just some subtle changes lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Big OOF on the 12k NAM....this is why we can't have nice things down our way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 One note is that the 3k NAM is far more generous with QPF especially for southern areas. Notably more banding around CNJ> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 But the 3k NAM saves the bacon, honestly no clue what the rest of 0z runs hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Don't look at the latest HRRR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Thankfully the hrrrrrrrr is a bad model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 My call is 0-1" south and east of the city, 1-3" for the city and immediate burbs, 3-6" for Lehigh valley and N/W bucks/Montgomery, and 6-10 for the poconos. I don't see the winter storm warnings verifying in lower bucks/Mercer/Montgomery. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Wild how we had a consensus snowstorm during the 12z suite and just like that it’s gone. Warning for LV already dropped down to 5-8in expect by tomorrow it back to an advisory for 1-4in. What a brutal past 8hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Wild how we had a consensus snowstorm during the 12z suite and just like that it’s gone. Warning for LV already dropped down to 5-8in expect by tomorrow it back to an advisory for 1-4in. What a brutal past 8hrs LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Honestly though, the RGEM and HRRR are worrying me a little. Went from warning criteria snow to a possible bust, just like that. Hopefully it means nothing and the models are just being silly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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