• Member Statistics

    15,843
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    maley.chris78@gmail.com
    Newest Member
    [email protected]
    Joined
NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’d almost bet money that the first two weeks of January will be cold

 

ive seen this movie many times. Warm until New Years. 

Soaring AO/NAO, positive EPO, MJO near warm phases. It's a torch recipe. 

You can close the shades for many weeks.

Gorgeous day today, so much better than last week's cold.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’d almost bet money that the first two weeks of January will be cold

 

ive seen this movie many times. Warm until New Years. 

That's how the models look today

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

That's how the models look today

Yes.  Everyone forgets that what we see today is often what we don't see tomorrow.  I love snow here as much as any weenie, but I am enjoying the milder temperatures for now as a break from the cold. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Yes.  Everyone forgets that what we see today is often what we don't see tomorrow.  I love snow here as much as any weenie, but I am enjoying the milder temperatures for now as a break from the cold. 

The ensemble means don’t have much skill beyond day 6-10. So reliable model themes start to emerge right around day 8-10. Leaning too heavily on day 11-15 model output usually ends in disappointment. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The ensemble means don’t have much skill beyond day 6-10. So reliable model themes start to emerge right around day 8-10. Leaning too heavily on day 11-15 model output usually ends in disappointment. 

This!!  So much this!  I’m as anxious as anybody to get some meaningful winter weather in here, but LR modeling isn’t worth chewing on until we are inside ten days (at least)!!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only reached 54* here.       Seems everybody else was higher.

Ensemble has it AN till the 30th on both the 850mb T's and 500mb. heights.     Apparently the 850mb T's do not stray far from Normal after that date till end of run, Jan. 07----while the 500mb heights go slightly Negative to the 4th., then slightly AN.

Meanwhile Christmas Day still looks like this:    (works out to +1.5sd) around here.

z500anom_f072_usbg.gif

And at the putative transition point it looks like this:

z500anom_f192_usbg.gif

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today, temperatures rose into the 50s in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 56°; Baltimore: 55°; Boston: 57°; Bridgeport: 50°; Islip: 55°; New York City: 57°; Newark: 57°; Philadelphia: 52°; and, Washington, DC: 53°.

New York City's high temperature was the warmest reading since December 10 when the mercury topped out at 58°.

On average, the final days of December will likely be warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal. Based on the latest guidance, the warmth could be sufficient to ensure that at least parts of the Middle Atlantic region could finish with at least a somewhat warmer than normal December. A scenario where much of the region winds up somewhat warmer than normal is not out of the question. The probability of more widespread warm anomalies has increased in recent days.

Through December 22, monthly anomalies for select cities were:

Baltimore: +0.3°, Boston: -0.8°, Islip: -1.3°, New York City: -2.5°, Newark: -2.0°, Philadelphia: -1.2°, and Washington, DC: -0.4°.

Colder air could return during the first week of January. The progression of the MJO in concert with the teleconnections could be crucial in determining whether most of North America's cold air stays bottled up north of the Canada-U.S. border beyond the first week of January or it comes southward into the region shortly after the start of 2020. Transient shots of cold would be possible under the former scenario. Afterward, the predominant state of the EPO will likely be crucial to the persistence of the cold.

Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.8°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -9.97 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.212.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 1, but some warming above 2 mb is possible near the end of December. Wave 2 activity will be muted as December nears an end. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through the remainder of December on the EPS.

On December 22, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.566 (RMM). The December 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.536.

Through December 20, the AO had averaged +0.878 in December. Since 1950, there were 12 cases where the AO averaged +0.500 to +1.250. The January mean temperature for New York City was 33.0°. However, six cases (50%) had temperatures 1.5° or more above that average, while five cases (42%) had temperatures 1.5° or more below that average. Put another way, this data suggests that January has the potential to either be warmer/much warmer than normal or colder/much colder than normal rather than near normal. When the January EPO had a positive average 6/8 (75%) of those cases were warmer to much warmer than normal. When the January EPO had a negative EPO average, 3/4 (75%) of those cases were colder to much colder than normal. In sum, the predominant state of the January EPO will very likely determine the January temperature outcome.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that December will wind up warmer than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature near 38.0°.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last 8 days of December are averaging  44.5degs., or about 10degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.8[36.9].       December should end near  +1.4[38.9].

43* here at 6am.     44* by 9am.     47* by Noon.        50* by 3pm.      45* by 6pm.       42*by 9pm.      41* by 10pm.

 

All models are zippo on any snow.     The January 'cooldown' does not even look like a return to Normal right now.      Big uncertainty starts Jan. 03, however.

2019122400_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The high temperature reached 57 degrees in NYC on Monday. This warmth right before Christmas has become really pronounced since 2001. NYC has gone 17 out of the last 19 years reaching 55 or warmer in the week before Christmas.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Dec 18 to Dec 24
Missing Count
2019-12-24 57 1
2018-12-24 61 0
2017-12-24 55 0
2016-12-24 58 0
2015-12-24 72 0
2014-12-24 58 0
2013-12-24 71 0
2012-12-24 56 0
2011-12-24 62 0
2010-12-24 40 0
2009-12-24 39 0
2008-12-24 58 0
2007-12-24 61 0
2006-12-24 59 0
2005-12-24 55 0
2004-12-24 59 0
2003-12-24 56 0
2002-12-24 60 0
2001-12-24 58 0

0F796DF0-37AB-4CD1-B8E5-E5E3FFDB9490.thumb.jpeg.dd4bd32774a06e2e8b1b9e341a5b1a17.jpeg

 

 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The high temperature of 57 on Monday in NYC continues the 55+ pattern before Christmas. This warmth right before Christmas has become really pronounced since 2001. So NYC has gone 17 out of the last 19 years reaching 55 or warmer in the week before Christmas.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Dec 18 to Dec 24
Missing Count
2019-12-24 57 1
2018-12-24 61 0
2017-12-24 55 0
2016-12-24 58 0
2015-12-24 72 0
2014-12-24 58 0
2013-12-24 71 0
2012-12-24 56 0
2011-12-24 62 0
2010-12-24 40 0
2009-12-24 39 0
2008-12-24 58 0
2007-12-24 61 0
2006-12-24 59 0
2005-12-24 55 0
2004-12-24 59 0
2003-12-24 56 0
2002-12-24 60 0
2001-12-24 58 0

0F796DF0-37AB-4CD1-B8E5-E5E3FFDB9490.thumb.jpeg.dd4bd32774a06e2e8b1b9e341a5b1a17.jpeg

 

 

Yup. I’ve seen this movie. It’s predictable. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The high temperature reached 57 degrees in NYC on Monday. This warmth right before Christmas has become really pronounced since 2001. NYC has gone 17 out of the last 19 years reaching 55 or warmer in the week before Christmas.

It's a heck of a trend to say the least.  Almost expected at this point.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At 8 am, it was 42° in New York City and 38° in Newark. Today will be another warmer than normal day, though not quite as warm as yesterday. High temperatures in both cities will likely top out in the upper 40s to around 50°. These readings will further reduce the now shrinking cold anomalies that had been accumulated during much of December.

On December 21, New York City and Newark had monthly temperature anomalies of 2.7° below normal and 2.1° below normal respectively. After yesterday's warmth, those cold anomalies have been slashed to 1.8° and 1.5° below normal respectively.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

analogs with a milder than average December will win this month...with only 2.5" in Central Park 2004 becomes the closest to 2019...

year...ave temp...snow...

2019...…38.0*...…….2.5".....* possible ave...

1959......38.4.........15.8"

1992......37.9...…......0.4"

2003......37.6.........19.8"

2004.......38.4...........3.0"

2013.......38.5...........8.6"

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can see much better ridge placement on the 12z vs previous runs. The western shortwave is slightly weaker and rotates further southwest instead of getting sucked into the flow allowing more pieces from the north to funnel down. Looks like a very interesting run ahead. I can’t post images for some reason. At HR168 you can see the PJ halted for a sec there stopping those building heights.  At HR 180 you can see that SW about 150 miles west mitigating the flow. Gfs wobbling back and forth on where to put that SW. by keeping the SW further west we allow for a better polar connection as evident on 12 z starting at 168 compared to previous runs. On top of that the whole evolution of what happens after day 7 is skewed. The 6z will use that SW to build the next storm while the 12z will extrapolate a whole different solution.  I would rather have that SW hold back a bit tbh, HR 192 that SW about 250 miles east of 12z by Texas while it was in the eastern pacific on 6z. From 168-198 u can see 12z just dropping in northern wave short wave troughs. You NYC boys will like this run day 9 on!

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

You can see much better ridge placement on the 12z vs previous runs. The western shortwave is slightly weaker and rotates further southwest instead of getting sucked into the flow allowing more pieces from the north to funnel down. Looks like a very interesting run ahead. I can’t post images for some reason. At HR168 you can see the PJ halted for a sec there stopping those building heights.  At HR 180 you can see that SW about 150 miles west mitigating the flow. Gfs wobbling back and forth on where to put that SW. by keeping the SW further west we allow for a better polar connection as evident on 12 z starting at 168 compared to previous runs. On top of that the whole evolution of what happens after day 7 is skewed. The 6z will use that SW to build the next storm while the 12z will extrapolate a whole different solution.  I would rather have that SW hold back a bit tbh, HR 192 that SW about 250 miles east of 12z by Texas while it was in the eastern pacific on 6z. From 168-198 u can see 12z just dropping in northern wave short wave troughs. You NYC boys will like this run day 9 on!

Gfs looks really good

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

If you take out the impact of rapid 'heat island' and local urbanization effect, no trend is present. 

This has nothing to do with urbanization. POU had exactly the same +16 high temperature departure as NYC yesterday. 
 

Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Max Temperature Departure 
2019-12-23 54 16.3
2019-12-24 M M

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature
Max Temperature Departure 
2019-12-23 57 16.3
2019-12-24 M M

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

If you take out the impact of rapid 'heat island' and local urbanization effect, no trend is present. 

No not correct at all

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Beware of model output for the next two months because I think that we have entered that "Mondo Bizzarro" period where late in a computer run the full realm of winter weather around here might be shown.       Like the previous GFS output  having a day in the 50's, a single digit day, and possible big snows, crammed together.

I got a kick out of that  -28C 850mb on Jan 06, which if real, must be in the Top Ten such around here.

Prior to the above mayhem, all three models seem to have a potential 60-degree day, before the year ends.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures across the region have reached the upper 40s and even lower 50s as of 1 pm. High temperatures through 1 pm include:

Bridgeport: 50°
Islip: 47°
New York City: 47°
Newark: 49°
Philadelphia: 51°

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

CWG did a nice story on this a few weeks back.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/16/winter-holidays-are-warming-rapidly-mid-atlantic-northeast/

The winter holidays are warming rapidly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

 

The week leading up to Christmas is warming twice as fast as the rest of the winter in many East Coast cities.

 

What a non story....The headline above says it all...Are  they saying that the Christmas  week is warming  more because of a meteorological reason? Just a fluke...Consider the source.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, doncat said:

What a non story....The headline above says it all...Are  they saying that the Christmas  week is warming  more because of a meteorological reason? Just a fluke...Consider the source.

What does consider the source mean? This holiday week warming is a widespread story. It’s not just localized to a small area. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

That one week warming faster than the rest?

That’s a great data point but there can’t be any scientific reason behind it beyond overall Climate Change

There does seem to be something to Sept and Dec warmth though.

We know that warming can be an uneven process. But this late month warmth is an interesting feature. You would think that the warmest temperatures for NYC would occur earlier in the month. The average NYC high on 12-1 is 48 and 39 on 12-31. NYC had 5 years from 2011 to 2018 with the monthly highest temperature occurring between the 21st and 31st. It used to be uncommon for NYC to have its warmest December temperature beyond the middle of the month.

NYC highest December temperature dates after the 20th

12-21-18....61

12-27-16....60

12-24-15....72

12-22-13.....71

12-21-11.....62    tie with earlier dates
 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.