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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

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PV is getting hit by wave one and two now,least it looked better yesterday.maybe it's on to something,maybe not

 

Edit:Should have said the PV is starting to get hit by wave 1and 2,i just woke up

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To really grasp how much models have moved this AM in the d10-15, look at the BN height change over Alaska in the GEPS and EPS.  The GEPS is back to a favorable pattern already, and one might imagine that the EPS wasn't far behind it.  So, two really strong biases that are making LR ideas difficult to formulate:

1.  The GEFS is too cold in the LR, but it seems to spot cold shots...just have to remember they won't be as cold as modeled - usually.  In some cases, the GFS has nailed big highs from way out during the past few months.

2.  The EPS is nearly blind to cold shots after d10, and just tough to believe any warm-up that actually occurs in that time frame.  A warm-up will happen, but a broken clock is right twice a day(meaning if it stays warm in that time frame...at some point it will be right).  Right now, I do believe once inside d10, the Euro/EPS is the better model.  

So right now, my combo would by the Euro/EPS suite inside of d10 and the GFS/GEFS(with cold bias accounted for) after d10.  

 

@jaxjagman, so is modeling today showing a SPV disturbance(edit...I must be just waking up as well!)in today's modeling?  I haven't looked.  I know yesterday folks were talking about potential records. 

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

To really grasp how much models have moved this AM in the d10-15, look at the BN heigh change over Alaska in the GEPS and EPS.  The GEPS is back to a favorable pattern already, and one might imagine that the EPS wasn't far behind it.  So, two really strong biases that are making LR ideas difficult to formulate:

1.  The GEFS is too cold in the LR, but it seems to spot cold shots...just have to remember they won't be as cold as modeled - usually.  In some cases, the GFS has nailed big highs from way out during the past few months.

2.  The EPS is nearly blind to cold shots after d10, and just tough to believe any warm-up that actually occurs in that time frame.  A warm-up will happen, but a broken clock is right twice a day(meaning if it stays warm in that time frame...at some point it will be right).  Right now, I do believe once inside d10, the Euro/EPS is the better model.  

So right now, my combo would by the Euro/EPS suite inside of d10 and the GFS/GEFS(with cold bias accounted for) after d10.  

 

@jaxjagman, so is modeling today showing a SPV in today's modeling?  I haven't looked.  I know yesterday folks were talking about potential records. 

It is strong but still can get stretched and displaced

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I'm just glad to see the Euro not taking such a big poo on the EPO starting around D6 as we keep moving forward. GFS is too all over the place past that point with it's super tanking the 6z.41b256b96488855619926cd38a0279a3.jpg&key=9bcf32e080310355a35af2bb708a2a64707f3b742ec351c234c8b7f71b74045a

 

Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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I think the December 20th-22nd timeframe looks interesting. The GFS & GEFS have had some sort of storm during that time period for a couple days now. I don't know if anything will pan out, but that seems like our next best chance of snow from the models and ensembles.

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EPS is not as cold as the GEFS at the ground. However the EPS trends toward that Greenland ridge. Hopefully this info helps the blocking discussion if no EPS access.

@jaxjagman has a solid post deciphering Anthony speak on the previous page. @Carvers Gap is probably right about the ECMWF, this page.

I've seen a few mild 11-15 day forecasts turn cold in the 6-10 day period. Tough pattern for models and humans. Christmas week (at least early) currently looks thunderstormy. Who knows? Maybe the GFS will go snow again. Any solution, including sunny and 55, could happen.

My main point is that I'm skeptical of an extended blowtorch. I won't call big cold either. Just looking at the trend, it's back and fourth. And it actually snowed in Chattanooga!

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Poking around the Mid Atlantic forum and found this from someone who works with the models, I think...

 

"Version 15.1 of the GFS officially became operational on June 12th of this year.  It has a 13 km horizontal resolution and 64 layers.  Data are assimilated at a 25 km resolution. Version 14 was retired on September 30.  A minor change was made to the GFS in early November.  It is now assimilating additional data sets including information from GOES-17. 

Version 12 of the GEFS is scheduled to become operational in August 2020.  It will have  the same dynamical core as version 15 of the GFS and its resolution will increase from 40- to 25-km and will include 31 members as opposed to the current 21.  The system will be run 4 times per day with the 00 UT run being 35 days in length and the other runs 16 days in length. 

Apparently, the ensemble system has skill out to 10.4 days versus 9.8 for the current system with 2-3 hours of the additional skill due to the additional ensemble members. 

The next version of the GFS (version 16) is scheduled to become operational in January 2021.  It is in the pre-operational stage now but has been frozen.  It should have 127 levels compared to the current 64 and has bias fixes including (hopefully) one for the lower tropospheric cold -bias.  Not sure what the fix is.

Version 13 of the GEFS is scheduled to become operational in FY2023.  It should be a "fully" coupled system that includes an ocean model, a wave model, an aerosol model etc. "

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For NE TN folks...I think this is not a huge event, but any ZR is a pain in the neck so heads up.  Modeling has hinted at this on an off for several days.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
358 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

TNZ015>018-042>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-122115-
Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell-
Including the cities of Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway,
Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam,
Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade,
Laurel Bloomery, Greeneville, Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin,
Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Elizabethton, Hampton, Rose Hill,
Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee,
Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker,
Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon
358 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

...BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...

Rainfall will spread north across northeastern Tennessee and
southwest Virginia beginning around midnight tonight. As it
begins, temperatures are expected to be around or slightly below
freezing, but will rise slowly through the night as rain persists.

This will result in a four to six hour window of freezing rain or
a mix of rain and freezing rain. Ice accumulations are expected
to be light, generally only a hundredth or two. But travel
conditions could become hazardous a brief time, especially across
elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses, as well as
secondary roads. The highest impacts will likely be in southwest
Virginia where freezing temperatures will persist the longest.

Temperatures should quickly rise above freezing around daybreak,
ending any threat of freezing rain and quickly improving travel
conditions.

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Jamstec did a 180 this update.What looked to be a -NAO/+PDO did a flip flop,it's cold in the west and warm east.

This morning the EPS wants to punch the PV,50MB it's still far out.Wave -2 looks better and better each day  tho

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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Teleconnections show the AO possibly could possibly tank just after Christmas with a possibly rising PNA and a weak -NAO,cold signs just after Christmas:shiver:

The weak -NAO shown in charts for day 6 is actually a well placed west based -NAO.  Sometimes we can look at the chart and see average, but the actual look at 500 can be MUCH better.  I have attached the chart to show day 7 (basically neutral in the NAO domain), but the 500 map seems to show a robust west based -NAO.  It's kind of like looking at the MJO and noticing the convection doesn't really jive with modeling at times.

 

NAO Chart 12122019.gif

NAO 500 Map Day 6 12122019.png

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Just now getting caught up on model runs since 12z yesterday...been painting most of the week.  The GEFS and EPS are worlds apart regarding the ridge placement and duration in the East in the LR.  Just when I think they have their act together...the 0z suite happens.  

 

A couple of folks have asked what the scientific argument for warm would be(not saying this will happen), but here they are:

1.  Ninos have clusters of warm Decembers.

2.  The MJO on the JAMSTEC yesterday showed rain in the MJO regions of 4, 5, and 6 in the LR.

3.  The Pacific(if the modeling is correct) is about to be less than favorable for at least ten days - hostile is an appropriate word.  For the NAO to really work its magic and produce a memorable pattern, those two need to be in sync.  

4.  The PV might(if the models are correct) indeed tighten up after this minor/moderate PV split.

Those four aforementioned reasons are solid reasons.

 

Reasons to think that the LR pattern will be good(wintry)...

1.  November...was a great month in terms of weather patterns.  What happens in November, the winter will remember.

2.  Blocking is showing up on global ensembles.  The GEFS and GEPS this morning do indeed depict a workable eastern pattern.  The EPS shows how the pattern could go poorly, even with Atlantic blocking - the EPS has played catch-up since October when blocking begins to show-up.

3.  The NAO is turning suddenly negative.  That often happens.  Many have noted on various sub-forums that the NAO doesn't give a lot of notice when it flips negative.  It is likely models don't have this worked out yet if real.  That said, modeling showed a great -NAO just a few weeks ago that looked golden...and lasted less than a week.

4.  The QBO is dropping which should enhance blocking.

6.  The pattern should turn colder due to climatology during January/February.

 

Wild Cards...

1.  IOD...dropping sharply but will it maintain that?

2.  The SOI has been flirting with positive at times.  A few very negative days back in November are keeping the 30 day average more negative than it probably is.  The big cold snap during November coincided with a sharp drop in the SOI.

3.  Storm track.   Hate to say waisted...but we have indeed waisted a great storm track of SLPs from the GOM that have been rainers.  Will that great storm track continue?  Have to think if it does continue...one of those big cold highs will be money.  The frequency of precip events will definitely help our odds of snow.

4.  Does the GEFS stay on its hot streak of finding cold...or does its remarkable cold bias make it unusable during all but early and late winter?  

5.  What in the world has happened to LR/seasonal modeling during the past couple of years?  Seems like they used to be much more accurate.  I am sure there is a statistic that say they are accurate....but the Weeklies are a shadow of their former selves IMHO.  Will they improve as the season settles down?

 

Where do we go from here?

TRI sits at +1.2F for the month.  With a sixty degree high forecast for next week, have to think that holds strong.   I think December finishes AN for temps.  It is an outside possibility that TRI could get in the mix for the storm around the 22nd.  Right now looks like a Miller B.  I have noticed over the years, that when DC gets that set-up, often TRI is where the snow axis begins.  Right now, just looks too warm.  I still feel that beginning Monday, the pattern is 3-5 weeks weeks from getting into a true winter pattern that is both cold and snowy.  Again, it can and does snow during a warm pattern.  I probably lean towards the three week end of that window.  I think the GEFS is likely correct this morning, but just too fast.  So, late in the first week of January or second week of January would be a guess as to when we see the a true winter time pattern - not that this week was a bad one.  And that is worth stating again, the weather pattern has been decent.  Definitely looking forward to see how modeling works out things during the next couple of weeks.  

 

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EPS has been zig zagging wildly all week, more like the GEFS or even the lowly GFS. Speaking of it, the GFS can't decide between snow or severe Christmas week. Oh what fun!

Carvers check-list above looks good to me. While the models still have -NAO overnight they got real warm with the Pacific indicators. Equal balance shifted warmer, but it can (and probably will) change again both ways. Convection in MJO phases 2-3 adds volatility since both the models struggle in those phases.

Bottom line: I think the end of December will average mild. It will be variable however, note another sharp midweek cold front on deck. Christmas week could three-peat.

Perhaps surprisingly, I'm less bearish than the weekly models. Maybe a turn colder in early January. If not, that time of year normal temps can still get it done.

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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just now getting caught up on model runs since 12z yesterday...been painting most of the week.  The GEFS and EPS are worlds apart regarding the ridge placement and duration in the East in the LR.  Just when I think they have their act together...the 0z suite happens.  

 

A couple of folks have asked what the scientific argument for warm would be(not saying this will happen), but here they are:

1.  Ninos have clusters of warm Decembers.

2.  The MJO on the JAMSTEC yesterday showed rain in the MJO regions of 4, 5, and 6 in the LR.

3.  The Pacific(if the modeling is correct) is about to be less than favorable for at least ten days - hostile is an appropriate word.  For the NAO to really work its magic and produce a memorable pattern, those two need to be in sync.  

4.  The PV might(if the models are correct) indeed tighten up after this minor/moderate PV split.

Those four aforementioned reasons are solid reasons.

 

Reasons to think that the LR pattern will be good(wintry)...

1.  November...was a great month in terms of weather patterns.  What happens in November, the winter will remember.

2.  Blocking is showing up on global ensembles.  The GEFS and GEPS this morning do indeed depict a workable eastern pattern.  The EPS shows how the pattern could go poorly, even with Atlantic blocking - the EPS has played catch-up since October when blocking begins to show-up.

3.  The NAO is turning suddenly negative.  That often happens.  Many have noted on various sub-forums that the NAO doesn't give a lot of notice when it flips negative.  It is likely models don't have this worked out yet if real.  That said, modeling showed a great -NAO just a few weeks ago that looked golden...and lasted less than a week.

4.  The QBO is dropping which should enhance blocking.

6.  The pattern should turn colder due to climatology during January/February.

 

Wild Cards...

1.  IOD...dropping sharply but will it maintain that?

2.  The SOI has been flirting with positive at times.  A few very negative days back in November are keeping the 30 day average more negative than it probably is.  The big cold snap during November coincided with a sharp drop in the SOI.

3.  Storm track.   Hate to say waisted...but we have indeed waisted a great storm track of SLPs from the GOM that have been rainers.  Will that great storm track continue?  Have to think if it does continue...one of those big cold highs will be money.  The frequency of precip events will definitely help our odds of snow.

4.  Does the GEFS stay on its hot streak of finding cold...or does its remarkable cold bias make it unusable during all but early and late winter?  

5.  What in the world has happened to LR/seasonal modeling during the past couple of years?  Seems like they used to be much more accurate.  I am sure there is a statistic that say they are accurate....but the Weeklies are a shadow of their former selves IMHO.  Will they improve as the season settles down?

 

Where do we go from here?

TRI sits at +1.2F for the month.  With a sixty degree high forecast for next week, have to think that holds strong.   I think December finishes AN for temps.  It is an outside possibility that TRI could get in the mix for the storm around the 22nd.  Right now looks like a Miller B.  I have noticed over the years, that when DC gets that set-up, often TRI is where the snow axis begins.  Right now, just looks too warm.  I still feel that beginning Monday, the pattern is 3-5 weeks weeks from getting into a true winter pattern that is both cold and snowy.  Again, it can and does snow during a warm pattern.  I probably lean towards the three week end of that window.  I think the GEFS is likely correct this morning, but just too fast.  So, late in the first week of January or second week of January would be a guess as to when we see the a true winter time pattern - not that this week was a bad one.  And that is worth stating again, the weather pattern has been decent.  Definitely looking forward to see how modeling works out things during the next couple of weeks.  

 

Think for next weeks system to work (mainly only for NE TN), would need a really amped system to come NE out of the gulf tracking through the Carolinas, plus the west based NAO to go as modeled (without the Pacific, -NAO is not much help to the rest of us especially the further west you go). The pacific looks horrid, lots of pacific air flooding in with those teleconnections out that way. Great writeup.

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MJO shows alot of destructive interference from Rossby-Kelvin waves.If it does move into the Maritime it's not going to stay there very long and will be back into the WH and Africa afterwards,least that is what it looks like right now.

The ensembles today are fairly well clusted in showing a -AO before Christmas,yesterday it was a couple days after, but now there is not much signs of a +PNA..Euro shows a Low over Alaska the same time the the GEFS pumps up Alaska

 

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Yes what Jax says at the end bleeds into the weekly versions. I almost mentioned it above, but didn't since it's week 3+. Well, why not? 

CFS locks up cold in Canada (BN heights) downstream of its AK ridge. Euro weeklies, on the other hand, go with AN heights in southwestern Canada and the US Pac NW. That's not a classic +PNA but it has some of the characteristics (including Hawaii). Euro surface is not too cold here in the SE US but it's better than the CFS furnace. 

While weeklies are not too useful past week 3, one can certainly see colder scenarios than the CFS shows.

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Does not appear this is going to be one of those winters where we a bored...lots to figure out.  Also, seems to be one of those winters where events can sneak up on us...especially cold fronts.   Great discussion by everyone.  And I do think we get a nice period of winter weather eventuall.   Lots of cold running around and poor model verification after about d8, even with generalities.

  

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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Does not appear this is going to be one of those winters where we a bored...lots to figure out.  Also, seems to be one of those winters where events can sneak up on us...especially cold fronts.   Great discussion by everyone.  And I do think we get a nice period of winter weather eventuall.   Lots of cold running around and poor model verification after about d8, even with generalities.

  

If the EPS control is anywhere right,it's going to get cold towards the end of the year and it will stay cold until Mid Jan and beyond,but that's like always a big "IF"

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45 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

If the EPS control is anywhere right,it's going to get cold towards the end of the year and it will stay cold until Mid Jan and beyond,but that's like always a big "IF"

If is crazy how the overnight run of the EPS is warm and the 12z is cold.  This oddity has been going on for weeks.  Looked like the NAO might be lost but the EPO reforms.  I think we have seen this movie before.  The run wasn't cold, but if it continues to correct...even normal temps in late December are formidable as Jeff noted.  EPS and GEFS look good at 12z.  I wonder how many times I have typed that during December...only to type that the overnight ensembles took a step back.  LOL.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

If is crazy how the overnight run of the EPS is warm and the 12z is cold.  This oddity has been going on for weeks.  Looked like the NAO might be lost but the EPO reforms.  I think we have seen this movie before.  The run wasn't cold, but if it continues to correct...even normal temps in late December are formidable as Jeff noted.  EPS and GEFS look good at 12z.  I wonder how many times I have typed that during December...only to type that the overnight ensembles took a step back.  LOL.

I thought we'd start to see a warm up around the 18th,but got suckered into the GEFS yesterday.The MJO is quite similar  to the upcoming 5H pattern the Euro shows going into phase2 in Dec.But all signs are we are going to warm up upcoming especailly more in our parts,west and central Valley..Also don't let people fool you about the +IOD,it's still much stronger than normal  right now AND all signs it should stay that way at least into the 2nd week of Jan.

ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z DEC13
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI 12Z 13-DEC   3.1     2.0      -2             -25               1       3    
FRI 18Z 13-DEC   3.9     1.8      -6              46              -3       2    
SAT 00Z 14-DEC   4.1     0.5     -11    1098      50   39.43      -9       0    
SAT 06Z 14-DEC   4.0    -1.4     -14    1098      37   39.37     -16      -4    
SAT 12Z 14-DEC   3.1    -3.8     -14    1097      16   39.34     -19      -7    
SAT 18Z 14-DEC   5.6    -3.5     -12    1067      49   39.34     -21     -11    
SUN 00Z 15-DEC   3.2    -3.1      -9             -20             -15      -7    
SUN 06Z 15-DEC   0.5    -2.8      -6               2             -11      -6    
SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -0.4     0.1      -2              46              -7      -5    
SUN 18Z 15-DEC   6.4     0.4      -1              47              -2      -1    
MON 00Z 16-DEC   4.6     1.2      -3    1074      36   39.34       2       5    
MON 06Z 16-DEC   8.3     7.0      -8    1085      26   39.35       4      10    
MON 12Z 16-DEC  10.8     7.5      -8    1090      -3   39.36       5      12    
MON 18Z 16-DEC  13.9     8.4     -11    1090      45   39.48       4      14    
TUE 00Z 17-DEC  12.5     8.9     -14              32               2      13    
TUE 06Z 17-DEC   9.2     6.8     -14              25              -1      10    
TUE 12Z 17-DEC   0.5    -4.2      -6             -37              -6       0    
TUE 18Z 17-DEC  -0.8    -9.6      -2             -27             -12     -10    
WED 00Z 18-DEC  -0.7   -10.6       1             -16             -18     -18    
WED 06Z 18-DEC  -4.8   -10.2       4             -22             -18     -20    
WED 12Z 18-DEC  -6.9    -7.8       6               3             -13     -17    
WED 18Z 18-DEC   1.8    -6.5       7             -11              -6     -11    
THU 00Z 19-DEC  -1.9    -4.4       7             -14               0      -5    
THU 06Z 19-DEC  -4.3    -1.7       9             -23               4      -2    
THU 12Z 19-DEC  -5.7     0.5      10             -37               8       0    
THU 18Z 19-DEC   5.6     2.1      10             -38               9       1    
FRI 00Z 20-DEC   1.3     1.6       9             -36               9       2    
FRI 06Z 20-DEC   0.0     0.5       9             -24               7       0    
FRI 12Z 20-DEC  -0.3    -0.6       9             -35               4      -2    
FRI 18Z 20-DEC   6.0    -0.8       7              25               1      -4    
SAT 00Z 21-DEC   2.3    -0.1       5             -30               4       0    
SAT 06Z 21-DEC   0.0     2.2       5              -2               5       2    
SAT 12Z 21-DEC  -0.6     4.3       4             -20               6       3    
SAT 18Z 21-DEC  10.1     4.9       1             -34               7       6    
SUN 00Z 22-DEC   6.8     3.4       0             -34               7       7    
SUN 06Z 22-DEC   4.7     6.8       0             -14               7       7    
SUN 12Z 22-DEC   4.1     9.4       0             -29               9       9    
SUN 18Z 22-DEC  12.6    10.7      -3             -32              10      12    
MON 00Z 23-DEC   9.8    10.0      -6             -38              11      16    
MON 06Z 23-DEC   7.6     8.5      -6             -40              11      16    
MON 12Z 23-DEC   7.4     7.3      -6             -40              11      16    



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Just now, jaxjagman said:

I thought we'd start to see a warm up around the 18th,but got suckered into the GEFS yesterday.The MJO is quite similar  to the upcoming 5H pattern the Euro shows going into phase2 in Dec.But all signs are we are going to warm up upcoming especailly more in our parts,west and central Valley..Also don't let people fool you about the +IOD,it's still much stronger than normal and right now all signs it should stay that way at least into the 2nd week of Jan.

ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z DEC13
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI 12Z 13-DEC   3.1     2.0      -2             -25               1       3    
FRI 18Z 13-DEC   3.9     1.8      -6              46              -3       2    
SAT 00Z 14-DEC   4.1     0.5     -11    1098      50   39.43      -9       0    
SAT 06Z 14-DEC   4.0    -1.4     -14    1098      37   39.37     -16      -4    
SAT 12Z 14-DEC   3.1    -3.8     -14    1097      16   39.34     -19      -7    
SAT 18Z 14-DEC   5.6    -3.5     -12    1067      49   39.34     -21     -11    
SUN 00Z 15-DEC   3.2    -3.1      -9             -20             -15      -7    
SUN 06Z 15-DEC   0.5    -2.8      -6               2             -11      -6    
SUN 12Z 15-DEC  -0.4     0.1      -2              46              -7      -5    
SUN 18Z 15-DEC   6.4     0.4      -1              47              -2      -1    
MON 00Z 16-DEC   4.6     1.2      -3    1074      36   39.34       2       5    
MON 06Z 16-DEC   8.3     7.0      -8    1085      26   39.35       4      10    
MON 12Z 16-DEC  10.8     7.5      -8    1090      -3   39.36       5      12    
MON 18Z 16-DEC  13.9     8.4     -11    1090      45   39.48       4      14    
TUE 00Z 17-DEC  12.5     8.9     -14              32               2      13    
TUE 06Z 17-DEC   9.2     6.8     -14              25              -1      10    
TUE 12Z 17-DEC   0.5    -4.2      -6             -37              -6       0    
TUE 18Z 17-DEC  -0.8    -9.6      -2             -27             -12     -10    
WED 00Z 18-DEC  -0.7   -10.6       1             -16             -18     -18    
WED 06Z 18-DEC  -4.8   -10.2       4             -22             -18     -20    
WED 12Z 18-DEC  -6.9    -7.8       6               3             -13     -17    
WED 18Z 18-DEC   1.8    -6.5       7             -11              -6     -11    
THU 00Z 19-DEC  -1.9    -4.4       7             -14               0      -5    
THU 06Z 19-DEC  -4.3    -1.7       9             -23               4      -2    
THU 12Z 19-DEC  -5.7     0.5      10             -37               8       0    
THU 18Z 19-DEC   5.6     2.1      10             -38               9       1    
FRI 00Z 20-DEC   1.3     1.6       9             -36               9       2    
FRI 06Z 20-DEC   0.0     0.5       9             -24               7       0    
FRI 12Z 20-DEC  -0.3    -0.6       9             -35               4      -2    
FRI 18Z 20-DEC   6.0    -0.8       7              25               1      -4    
SAT 00Z 21-DEC   2.3    -0.1       5             -30               4       0    
SAT 06Z 21-DEC   0.0     2.2       5              -2               5       2    
SAT 12Z 21-DEC  -0.6     4.3       4             -20               6       3    
SAT 18Z 21-DEC  10.1     4.9       1             -34               7       6    
SUN 00Z 22-DEC   6.8     3.4       0             -34               7       7    
SUN 06Z 22-DEC   4.7     6.8       0             -14               7       7    
SUN 12Z 22-DEC   4.1     9.4       0             -29               9       9    
SUN 18Z 22-DEC  12.6    10.7      -3             -32              10      12    
MON 00Z 23-DEC   9.8    10.0      -6             -38              11      16    
MON 06Z 23-DEC   7.6     8.5      -6             -40              11      16    
MON 12Z 23-DEC   7.4     7.3      -6             -40              11      16    



wkteq_xz gif  680×880  (2).png

AccuWeather com® Professional - Forecast Models.png

Yeah, agree.  Just the look in the eastern Indian Ocean...plenty of convection.   I think the IOD index had been falling as of yesterday.  That said, the actual satellite photo is pretty steam in that area.  That is part of the reason that I think we get consistent(winter type stuff) during the just prior to mid-January.  

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15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, agree.  Just the look in the eastern Indian Ocean...plenty of convection.   I think the IOD index had been falling as of yesterday.  That said, the actual satellite photo is pretty steam in that area.  That is part of the reason that I think we get consistent(winter type stuff) during the just prior to mid-January.  

Seemingly a couple days ago the Euro showed the MJO going into the warm phases 4 and 5,believe more or less what it was just seeing was a Kelvin Wave which is what iS being shown,It's now looking more GEFS it's why i believe the GEFS is more right with  the signal getting into the WH upcoming.The MJO like i said earlier has destructive interference with it from Rossby and Kelvin waves

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies (3).png

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Pretty good convection flare up in the 7/8 regions to go along with that in the Eastern Indian Ocean. Still some in over Indonesia, but definitely looking a lot more spread out there.

SOI down to -11 and if the above trend continues, it may continue to drop.  

Davis Strait ridge in NAM range now! Will be interesting to see how or even if models adjust once that develops and if we can get that convection into the Western Hemisphere

 

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13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Pretty good convection flare up in the 7/8 regions to go along with that in the Eastern Indian Ocean. Still some in over Indonesia, but definitely looking a lot more spread out there.

SOI down to -11 and if the above trend continues, it may continue to drop.  

Davis Strait ridge in NAM range now! Will be interesting to see how or even if models adjust once that develops and if we can get that convection into the Western Hemisphere

 

As I seem to recall, with one of the analog years that has been touted, 1985, we were fairly warm that December, but then the pattern must have changed because then we went t0 -17 that next month - seems like Nashville also got 5 or 6 inches of snow 

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The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS are worlds apart....maybe light years.  They eventually get to the same point...but those roads diverge mightily before reconverting in the LR.  I think their handling of the MJO is crucial.  While I like the GEFS in finding cold, when the EPS gets inside of d10 it outperforms the GEFS.  One models is going to be left looking pretty bad after this bout...If one can scrounge up some commonalities:

1.  EPO ridge returns late in each run.  NAO weakens quickly just like last time.  I do wonder if it eventually fires once Nino climatology is a little less hostile.

2.  Ridge comes east with wildly different depictions of its duration(I lean longer than the GEFS...)

3.  Lots of rain and Pacific air.  Lots of sloppy whether which is a hallmark of El Ninos in this area.

4.  Lots of whiplash with a wide range of outcomes possible even during the mid-range.

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29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS are worlds apart....maybe light years.  They eventually get to the same point...but those roads diverge mightily before reconverting in the LR.  I think their handling of the MJO is crucial.  While I like the GEFS in finding cold, when the EPS gets inside of d10 it outperforms the GEFS.  One models is going to be left looking pretty bad after this bout...If one can scrounge up some commonalities:

1.  EPO ridge returns late in each run.  NAO weakens quickly just like last time.  I do wonder if it eventually fires once Nino climatology is a little less hostile.

2.  Ridge comes east with wildly different depictions of its duration(I lean longer than the GEFS...)

3.  Lots of rain and Pacific air.  Lots of sloppy whether which is a hallmark of El Ninos in this area.

4.  Lots of whiplash with a wide range of outcomes possible even during the mid-range.

I will take it - as many have stated - at least there is something to track this season and it is changeable - not a continuous Fall throughout Winter lol 

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I don't believe the gefs on anything really. Its very cold bias and eps has been warm bias. I got an email from a friend who works at UOA in New York yesterday and he believes the mjo is actually two separate areas of convection currently. He said mid January give or take before better pattern. I am curious on why alot of the so called experts think the +IOD is good for keeping mjo in colder niño phases, but don't look like that has happened.

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