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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread


AMZ8990
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Teleconections go south long range,-PNA/+AO/EPO.

Seems like a brief warm up possibly around the 18th or so

I gave my thoughts on the MJO on the ENSO thread,but this could certainly change.

Seasons can be so different for us in the Valley..Unless you have some super storm, someone won't be happy,most of the time it's us in the central and western folks,it's just the way it is.

Quite a difference from last winter tho with the MJO.Starting point is Dec3,look how the MJO crept through the warm phases in Jan.,yeah we got cold ever so seldom in winter,more probably thanks to the lose SPV that finally split in late Dec.PV is strong right now and even signs of getting stronger in the next several days.

IMHO,get those electric blankets ready,you'll need them soon.Lets hope for a White Christmas,least for some body

 

 

wh04 mjo png  815×860 .png

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PV is headed back to the NP by the Euro it seems ,have to watch later on what blocking will show for any SSW upcoming.These strong +IOD events back into 1994,1997 never produced a SSWE in winter,nothing but signs right now the SPV will get stronger and not weaker,even tho the QBO is on the decline

Stratosphere diagnostics • Atmospheric Dynamics • Department of Earth Sciences.png

Climate System Monitoring   TCC (2).png

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0z GFS keeps the snow going on the back side of the Monday/Tuesday system. The GFS spits out 3-5 inches from the Plateau through most of the central sections of the valley, including Nashville. The Canadian is leaning towards the GFS solution as well, just a bit further south and east with the snow shield so the heaviest snow runs from Southern Ark, Northern Miss to the eastern half of the valley, where it's significant.

 

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

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Pretty amazing to see how much the whole next 5 - 7 days has changed in modeling over the last 36 hours. 6z GFS is now closer to rain for us all except NW TN and it is more interested in a chunk of energy in the Gulf later on.  Also interesting to see how the bigger, second storm, once modeled to come out of the southwest has been pushed east to develop toward the Gulf, over the past several days. I guess it is a symptom of the current wide open Atlantic? Timing becomes everything then, especially this early in the season. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Pretty amazing to see how much the whole next 5 - 7 days has changed in modeling over the last 36 hours. 6z GFS is now closer to rain for us all except NW TN and it is more interested in a chunk of energy in the Gulf later on.  Also interesting to see how the bigger, second storm, once modeled to come out of the southwest has been pushed east to develop toward the Gulf, over the past several days. I guess it is a symptom of the current wide open Atlantic? Timing becomes everything then, especially this early in the season. 

 

I would not honestly put too much stock in what the GFS was portraying at this point. It is a sad representation of our tax dollars at work. The model does well at showing a completely different solution with every run, for that, I give high marks!

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It is fun:

giphy.gif

Member 2 says 93 Jr incoming in 8 days, lol!

Even the Euro though, has changed from almost what the NAM is showing this AM, to being more like the GFS was a day ago. Interested to see what the above storm actually turns into. Wonder if we can get at least one OP run that looks like member 2. It might break the weather boards!

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14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Pretty amazing to see how much the whole next 5 - 7 days has changed in modeling over the last 36 hours. 6z GFS is now closer to rain for us all except NW TN and it is more interested in a chunk of energy in the Gulf later on.  Also interesting to see how the bigger, second storm, once modeled to come out of the southwest has been pushed east to develop toward the Gulf, over the past several days. I guess it is a symptom of the current wide open Atlantic? Timing becomes everything then, especially this early in the season. 

 

One thing I do think the model does well at is portraying the very active pattern we remain in going forward, that was why I had posted earlier that I like our chances going forward that if we can get some cold mixed in here, eventually, someone in the forum area is going to cash in

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

It is fun:

giphy.gif

Member 2 says 93 Jr incoming in 8 days, lol!

Even the Euro though, has changed from almost what the NAM is showing this AM, to being more like the GFS was a day ago. Interested to see what the above storm actually turns into. Wonder if we can get at least one OP run that looks like member 2. It might break the weather boards!

That would be sweet - just for giggles, what is the snow amounts associated with #2?

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To be fair, some of the EPS members show a similar system, just not always timed right for snowfall. I think there will be a big storm somewhere in the east during that time frame. Too many models/ runs have been honking the horn on it. I also think it will come up out of the Gulf, but whether it aims to track right at TN, or the Carolinas and whether it will have any cold air or disturbances timed right to phase, all that is not just up in the air, its at the 850 level right now, lol. 

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