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sbnwx85

Lake Effect 2019-20 Thread

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13 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Didn't the UP have a stretch of BN snowfall winters? Were you up there for them? 

There's been a lot actually the past several years, although my little corner here has not been under 200" a season since I've lived here.  One or two years it was close and the depth only peaked around 30" one year, think it was 2016-17.

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2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Snowing a bit today. Lots to come over the longterm.

 

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Cool picture of your four-legged weather vane.

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Heading up to the UP Thursday through Sunday. Friday looks a bit blah... but the LES this week should still net a positive snow depth change for the U.P.

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Heading up to the UP Thursday through Sunday. Friday looks a bit blah... but the LES this week should still net a positive snow depth change for the U.P.

I plan on doing Munising this year in Feb.

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Nice pics.  I don't think I've ever seen you post a pic of a sunny day.  I know how you despise them.

Really enjoy the pics you and Will post, please guys keep posting them. It helps us snow starved trolls, a troll is what the Yooper's call us that live south of the bridge, remember what deep mid winter conditions are supposed to look like north of the 45th parallel. At our place at Higgins Lake which is about 30 miles south of the 45th parallel, we've had a decent amount of snow so far this season but we've had a lot of rain and warm weather in between the snows. Sounds like cooler weather "should" start kicking in latter this week into the weekend and hopefully that allow whatever snow that does fall stay around. 

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We may finally see some more lake effect here in Indiana. Haven't seen much since the big event on Veterans Day. The models don't seem overly impressed 

From the last two IWX forecast discussions:

Quote

The bottom falls out Saturday night/Sunday as markedly colder air surges into the region. With open water on Lake MI and pronounced delta-T expect to see a prolonged period of Lake Effect Sunday through Tuesday.

Blended lake effect snow parameter woefully underdoing LES
potential in wake of cold northwest flow and upper teens lake/8H
thermal differentials beginning Saturday night and extending into
early next week. A more north/south axis with upstream
preconditioning could pose a long duration/significant LES event,
but must concede muted confidence given long range.

 

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Wow more than halfway through winter and the LES thread is barely 2 pages still, very sad indeed.

It does look like we may have a true LES outbreak beginning Sat Night and lasting through early next week. MLK riders will be happy im sure as we already picked up 4-5 inches since last night , another 6-8"+ from the system Fri-Sat then another 8-12" easy with LES definitely the best it has been all year and likely though remainder of winter. Have about 16-18" OTG now , should hit season high for depth by Tuesday.

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I'm most likely taking my daughter up to Gaylord this weekend for a day of riding. Bought the 2Up seat with handles for the Renegade-X. 

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This is one of the few cold, snowy, lake-effect days we’ve seen this winter. Light snow off and on with the sun filtered through high clouds. Not really sticking though. Watching a band of snow to the north. If it holds together as it drops south we could get a quick inch or two. 

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Light to occasionally moderate snow under this lake effect band. Enough to freshen up the ground after we lost some areas of snow due to rain and warmth yesterday. 

A608E9A5-CF53-4A32-AC9A-AFCD80A0F234.jpeg

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Will, those are beautiful pics.  Really captures that mid-winter feel.  It was def a beautiful day up here with the sunshine and a high of 20 at my house...  had to dig the chimney out.  

  I watched a video from the Tamarack location near Calumet and the snow depth was 54 inches, with a seasonal snow total of 204".  Probably one of the snowiest spots in the UP this winter to date.

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Not really sure where to put this so it'll go here. A rather impressive industrial-enhanced snow band has developed south of Fort Wayne!

2h
 

A plume of industrial-enhanced snow has developed on the western side of Fort Wayne, IN. Watch for localized higher snowfall rates and lowered visibility in that area. The associated graphic shows how this process works.

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4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Will, those are beautiful pics.  Really captures that mid-winter feel.  It was def a beautiful day up here with the sunshine and a high of 20 at my house...  had to dig the chimney out.  

  I watched a video from the Tamarack location near Calumet and the snow depth was 54 inches, with a seasonal snow total of 204".  Probably one of the snowiest spots in the UP this winter to date.

I'm around 100" on the year about average surprisingly given the lack of any decent LES outbreaks yet, been a lot of 3-5" events. Many areas are below or barely at normal for the year. UP looking pretty good so far, those cutters earlier in the year really aided many areas.

snowdepth.png

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10 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

I'm around 100" on the year about average surprisingly given the lack of any decent LES outbreaks yet, been a lot of 3-5" events. Many areas are below or barely at normal for the year. UP looking pretty good so far, those cutters earlier in the year really aided many areas.

snowdepth.png

Those depths for the UP seem off. MQT in negaunee was reporting 37” yesterday morning and Grand Marais I believe has 41” OTG and I’m in excess of 40” here, so idk.

Some others further west:

Painsdale 51"

Kearsarge 46"

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8 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Amazing how few LES events SW Michigan has seen the last 2 or 3 winters. 

Agw is a bitch

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37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Agw is a bitch

Can't help yourself, huh? 

Wouldn't be that concerned about cc and lake effect snow for now.  Some of the modeling actually suggests amounts could increase for a while (this has already happened in the past several decades) as the lakes being warmer/ice free for longer helps to counteract warmer airmasses in the means.  But you still do need to meet a minimum threshold to trigger les and the pattern hasn't just been a little warmer than avg, it has been very mild in the means for the past couple months.  

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