• Member Statistics

    15,753
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    queenofscience
    Newest Member
    queenofscience
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread

Recommended Posts

I’ve got the latest maps from the BTV NWS for upcoming Winter Storm Jacob.  The point forecast here has seen a bit of a bump with the latest update, suggesting 6-12” through tomorrow night.  We’re in the 6-8” shading on the projected accumulations map, although there is some 8-12” shading nearby as well that covers the higher elevations around here.

18JAN20A.jpg

18JAN20B.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I could see 5-8” up in this neck of the woods once you tally in all the residual terrain light snow on Sunday.  Might be tough to shut off the terrain snow for a bit.  

I’m thinking 3-5” initial burst and 2-3” fluffer nutter topping from -SN most of Sunday.  

Its frigid at -6F and highs only expected in the teens...I’m getting on the train of slightly higher ratios than climo for SWFE.

 

18 minutes ago, zeepowderhunter said:

Any thoughts on upslope?  

I quoted PF’s thoughts along with yours – I’d say the BTV NWS maps I posted above include the upslope component of the storm in the totals, since they go through 7:00 P.M. tomorrow.  From what I’ve seen, that’s why those areas of 8-12” are shown in the Northern Greens vs. the Central Greens.

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 624 AM EST Saturday...Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the entire forecast area, valid from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM Sunday.

The center of the low will ride up the Saint Lawrence Valley early Sunday morning, allowing strong southerly flow to veer to the west. At this point, expecting snow to become more tied to terrain, with downsloping hole emerging the Champlain Valley and continued upslope snow over the northwestern Adirondacks and the northern Greens. This pattern will continue through the day Sunday, with little additional accumulations expected in valley locations but another few inches over higher terrain during the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, zeepowderhunter said:

Thanks!

I actually took another look at the BTV NWS website around midday and saw that they’ve updated the projected accumulations map from the one I saw this morning – I guess the old one was from last night.  This new one seems more in line with what I’m seeing in the point forecasts, with much more 8-12” coverage and some of that 12-18” shading along the spine near Mansfield.  The point forecast there does suggest roughly 12-20” through tomorrow night, so that matches up reasonably.  That’s more aggressive than the numbers that are mentioned in the BTV NWS forecast discussion, but they really just mentioning the front end numbers there and note that there will be more in the higher terrain.  If there’s only a half inch of liquid equivalent in total then that would be tough to reach, but if it’s 0.75” or 1.00” of liquid, combined with upslope snow ratios, getting a foot of snow at elevation would be no problem.  Some of the mesoscale models do get up into that range of liquid through Monday, but we’ll just have to see as we get a bit closer.  I suspect the BTV NWS will have an update on their upslope thoughts with their afternoon discussion, so we’ll get their thoughts at that point.

Updated map is below:

18JAN20C.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well that’s good news! I will be heading to Jay later and was hopeful.  Hopefully I can get on my new pow boards that I have been salivating over. Thanks again and enjoy it if you get out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ve thought those big 10+ numbers were on the high side.  I went 5-8” for the ski areas (best bet IMO for covering the majority of terrain.  Of course could be locally higher at the summits and snow pockets but I think 5-8” was a good range of where this ends up for the majority of terrain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2.25” here. A little underwhelming, not that the 5” BTV progged for is all that overwhelming. Probably get a little more overnight. Went through some moderate type stuff on the way home from Waterbury. This stuff pretty much blew off the travel lane on 89. Did pass one car that was having a hard time going up the hill between exit 8 and 7. Looked like an SUV so they must have had really bad tires. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.29” L.E.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 2.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.29 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 8.6

Snow Density: 11.6% H2O

Temperature: 13.5 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 to 5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Event totals: 3.9” Snow/0.37” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.08 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 17.5

Snow Density: 5.7% H2O

Temperature: 19.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (4 to 10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Event totals: 5.1” Snow/0.42” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 24.0

Snow Density: 4.2% H2O

Temperature: 21.4 F

Sky: Light Snow (2 to 7 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.5 inches

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess I wasn’t paying attention but I didn’t expect light snow tonight. Roads actually got a little greasy on the way home from grocery shopping. 10F on the car thermo. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Event totals: 5.8” Snow/0.43” L.E.

 

Details from the 9:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 70.0

Snow Density: 1.4% H2O

Temperature: 13.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 to 4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Event totals: 6.0” Snow/0.43” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 5.4 F

Sky: Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

 

We’ve mostly cleared out now, so the totals above should represent the final numbers for Winter Storm Jacob here at our site.  With 6.0” of snow accumulation we just barely hit the bottom of the 6-12” range that was in out point forecast, but that’s sometimes the way it goes with these SWFE-type events.  Indeed, roughly 2/3 of the liquid from this storm came with a fairly dense 8.6 to 1 snow to water ratio.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Final measurement today was 9" at 3,000ft. 

Previous storm was 12".... 21" from the past two events and 24" this week total (last 5 board cleanings of 1", 2.5", 7", 5", 9") .  Not a bad recovery from last weekend's torch.

HighRoad_Jan_20.jpg.e6ef1379716b163f17e95e0ed58dcdb2.jpg

 
  •  
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/12/2020 at 10:19 PM, J.Spin said:

With that solid foundation, I think the local slopes have a shot of being in great shape for the upcoming holiday weekend because we’re getting back into our more typical bread and butter pattern.  We’ve actually got four potential systems coming through the Northern Greens in the next six days:  there’s one tomorrow into Tuesday, another on Wednesday, one on Thursday, and finally a potentially larger one coming into the area on Saturday.  Any one of those alone wouldn’t necessarily get things up to snuff, but collectively they could be quite good.  We’ll just have to see, but we were at Stowe this afternoon and there’s a lot of great base out there that just needs some quality snow on top of it.

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Final measurement today was 9" at 3,000ft. 

Previous storm was 12".... 21" from the past two events and 24" this week total (last 5 board cleanings of 1", 2.5", 7", 5", 9") .  Not a bad recovery from last weekend's torch.

It was a solid week here at the house as well; we had 18.1” snow/1.20” L.E. between the four storms.  That was definitely the best week of the month in terms of snowfall.  This next week doesn’t look as productive though; it looks quieter than average for the midweek.

Our CoCoRaHS numbers for the month thus far are 33.5” snow/3.20” L.E., so it’s certainly not last January where we’d hit 50” at this point, but at least it’s moving along decently with the final third to go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still looking for our first below 0F here. MAV/MET are 0F in CON tomorrow morning and EC MOS is -2F. Down to 11.4F with a still pesky wind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still looking for our first below 0F here. MAV/MET are 0F in CON tomorrow morning and EC MOS is -2F. Down to 11.4F with a still pesky wind.

Want mine? I have no use for them yet get a plethora 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, alex said:

Want mine? I have no use for them yet get a plethora 

No thanks. ;)

It's been relatively tame up there for your standards too. EC MOS is popping a -15F tonight for BML so you'll have some snotcicles in the morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No thanks. ;)

It's been relatively tame up there for your standards too. EC MOS is popping a -15F tonight for BML so you'll have some snotcicles in the morning.

Very true! Ive been telling that to Diane when she complains that it's 0. In past years negative temperatures were a daily occurrence. And we haven’t been anywhere near the -30s of yore :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dendrite said:

No thanks. ;)

It's been relatively tame up there for your standards too. EC MOS is popping a -15F tonight for BML so you'll have some snotcicles in the morning.

 

2 hours ago, alex said:

Very true! Ive been telling that to Diane when she complains that it's 0. In past years negative temperatures were a daily occurrence. And we haven’t been anywhere near the -30s of yore :P

I feel like I should ease into NNE Climate...not ready for long cold stretches, or intense cold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

d

8 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

It was a solid week here at the house as well; we had 18.1” snow/1.20” L.E. between the four storms.  That was definitely the best week of the month in terms of snowfall.  This next week doesn’t look as productive though; it looks quieter than average for the midweek.

Our CoCoRaHS numbers for the month thus far are 33.5” snow/3.20” L.E., so it’s certainly not last January where we’d hit 50” at this point, but at least it’s moving along decently with the final third to go.

The 3,000ft plot snowfall this week.

82526330_10104007065799880_8851531747100

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Crazy that Chittenden County has a temperature range that could go from the upper teens in downtown Burlington near the Lake, to -5F in the elevated hollows along the western slopes. 

Even the airport and downtown seem to have a 10F to 15F difference right there on the lake boundary.

January_20_ChittendenCounty.thumb.jpg.1abdd1819d9a36c1a1f5da5aa8964d79.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.