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Hoosier

October 2019 General Discussion

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Beautiful crystal-blue skies today... something of a rarity around here the past month or so. 8.4 inches of rain since the first of September.  The warm dry summer quickly changed.

Trees are peaking (oaks a tad green still).  Leaves are surprisingly nice, despite the wind and rains lately.  I'd estimate peak a week to ten days behind schedule for my local area (maybe even a few days more).  Up until Friday night when it hit 29, I had only had one very light frost, but have had many mornings in the mid and upper 30's.  

With the sunshine today, temps should reach mid-50's which will feel nice, with high temps only being in the 40's the past several days.

Pretty much just waiting on the snow now.

Around Negaunee today

IMG_E0968.JPG.996aa7f890eee3000cbf1079b4806c6c.JPG

 

IMG_0971.JPG.3bebc5c3422e991bb50eea7b19a6b39b.JPG

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Drought buster underway in Kentucky after a record dry spell... finally. Rained just over an inch at my location in less than a half hour and every single drop soaked in to the parched ground.

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56 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

love the extended, hope to lock this look in all winter

Some nice things on the table going forward thru this month of transition, that's for sure.

A few tidbits from Lezaks blog this morning on this upcoming storm and this years LRC.

  • There is a strong cold front, and it is well defined. Last year the fronts over the plains were rarely well defined, and certainly nothing like this.
  • The temperature contrast is from the 20s to the 90s.  It will be fun to show this on NBC tonight on KSHB, 41 Action News.
  • The upper level storm system is unlike anything we have seen in years.  Oh, there have been upper lows that have ripped out of the Rocky Mountains, but nothing like this one, and the waves rotating around the storm are so different than anything we experienced a year ago.
  • There is one wave rotating around the base of the storm as you can see below.  This wave will help produce the energy for a few severe thunderstorms, and there is a risk from the SPC
  • And, another wave is forecast to rotate around the main storm that will produce a potential band of rain and thunderstorms in the colder air north and west of the front.  This must be watched to see if this exists in other storm systems this winter. It likely will, but lets see it happen first.

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Not really a believer in the LRC.  Not to say that general patterns don't repeat but I think people tend to twist things to try to fit the "LRC"... at least from what I have observed. 

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not really a believer in the LRC.  Not to say that general patterns don't repeat but I think people tend to twist things to try to fit the "LRC"... at least from what I have observed. 

I don't subscribe to the cookie-cutter version he touts either. I do however feel strongly that each cold season has a certain syncopation that sets up during late Sept/early Oct as the PV begins to strengthen and the Jet comes to life. This rhythm maintains it's beat throughout the cold season, but the location obviously will vary as the action zone works it's way from northern lat's on southward as we go deeper into the season.  

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North Dakota is going to get slammed.

As we come up on the 30th anniversary of the more freakish Oct 1989 snowstorm that blasted IN and surrounding areas.  I think Chicagowx once called it the fluke of the century, which is not that far off the mark for the areas affected.  Certainly a once in a lifetime type of thing at most.

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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

North Dakota is going to get slammed.

As we come up on the 30th anniversary of the more freakish Oct 1989 snowstorm that blasted IN and surrounding areas.  I think Chicagowx once called it the fluke of the century, which is not that far off the mark for the areas affected.  Certainly a once in a lifetime type of thing at most.

reanalysis_image.gif

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

North Dakota is going to get slammed.

As we come up on the 30th anniversary of the more freakish Oct 1989 snowstorm that blasted IN and surrounding areas.  I think Chicagowx once called it the fluke of the century, which is not that far off the mark for the areas affected.  Certainly a once in a lifetime type of thing at most.

Back then, I followed winter wx (in winter). I don't remember hearing or seeing anything on news the night before about snow. When I stepped out the morning to moderate snow falling on a stiff easterly wind I thought maybe I'd slept 2 months away overnight. It had the feel of Dec 19th. This was in SEMI where Oct snows are rare beyond a flurry or brief shsn. 

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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

North Dakota is going to get slammed.

As we come up on the 30th anniversary of the more freakish Oct 1989 snowstorm that blasted IN and surrounding areas.  I think Chicagowx once called it the fluke of the century, which is not that far off the mark for the areas affected.  Certainly a once in a lifetime type of thing at most.

Here is the point forecast for Langdon, ND.  18-32" through Friday, with more snow Friday night and Saturday.  Amazing.  Brings back memories of the 1991 Halloween storm in Duluth, but this time there's no lake enhancement.

Today

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after noon. High near 33. Breezy, with a north wind 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
 
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 28. Windy, with a north wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
 
Friday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 30. Windy, with a north northwest wind 33 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.
 
Friday night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 5am. Low around 28. Windy, with a north northwest wind 32 to 39 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
 
Saturday
Snow. Widespread blowing snow before 4pm, then patchy blowing snow after 5pm. High near 32. Windy, with a north northwest wind 29 to 34 mph decreasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
 
 
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AFD from Grand Forks

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
718 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Band of showers moved quickly north thru WC and NW MN and wrapped
back into the RRV and as it is enountering the colder air trning
no snow Devils Lake, Cooperstown area. Radar showing a large ara
of snow and rain headed our way. No changes to the fcst necessary
in the very shor term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

The most difficult snow forecast and highest snowfall forecast of
my 30 year career.

Hard to believe model data at this point. Chat with WPC and they
can`t believe it either, but moisture advection today out ahead of
500 mb short will spread precipitation across the area. Banding
has been evident with snow band in western ND into western SD
tonight. All signs point to rapid development of precipiatation
today as 50 kt low level jet moves into central ND. Rain showers
into E ND and NW MN overnight with some thunder at times in MN.
This band of rain looks to set up over the RRV today with
rainfall amounts today 0.75 to 1 inch possible. Some thunder in
west central MN possible. West of the RRV atmosphere will cool as
main precip moves in and what could be a mix will go to snow this
morning and snow heavy at times this aftn and tonight just west of
the RRV. Lift in the dendritic zone would support high
accumulation rates esp this evening in the DVL area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

Main upper low will move thru western MN and settle over NW MN
Friday night and then wobble around. A very strong def zone will
be over E ND Friday afternoon and night with heavy snow and likely
very high snow rates...NE ND ...roughly Hallock to Grand Forks to
just west of Fargo and west. Very strong winds will develop west
of the sfc low which will near the 500 mb low location. Well mixed
layer up thru 50-55 kts to mix down Langdon to btwn Devils Lake
and Grand Forks Friday into Saturday AM. Net result of all this is
will go winter storm warning for the entire event (thru 18z Sat)
for eastern ND... will upgrade watch to warning as well Fargo zone
and far SE ND mainly for tonight change to some snow but it looks
like on southwest side of upper low snow will accumulate more than
6 inches into F-M area more so Friday. Kept winter storm watch
bordering main snow band Roseau to Fosston to Fergus Falls and
dropped watch far eastern counties as any snow there later Friday
into Saturday 2 inches or less.
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Denver went from 82F late yesterday afternoon to 21F and snowing at 7am. Stuff of yore right there my friends. 


I have a friend outside of Denver who literally closed his pool a few days ago because of the forecast. Earlier this week he was floating in it.
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Pretty amazing, have had 30-35 dbz returns overhead and hardly a drop.  Watched that entire mass of precip just get eaten away as it moved NE of Indy.

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8 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Looks like we could have our first frost of the season tonight

We could, but with the winds expected to stay up, I'm not planning covering the ol' sensitive vegetation.

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