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Carvers Gap

Fall 2019 Observations

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35 and crisp out there this morning. This year is probably the most mornings in the 32-36 range without going well below 32 in a while.  Seems like the past several years just went from 40s to a hard freeze with no middle ground. 

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8 hours ago, John1122 said:

This year is probably the most mornings in the 32-36 range without going well below 32 in a while.  Seems like the past several years just went from 40s to a hard freeze with no middle ground. 

Yep, we've had at least four or five mornings with scattered frost already but nothing below freezing. 

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4 hours ago, Coach B said:

Significant inversion this morning. I was up in the 40s on the hill at the house, but noticed a solid frost down in the fields on the way to town. 

 

See that here all the time, I live in an elevated bowl, I've seen 200 feet rise in elevation make 15 degrees difference in temperatures.

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Think i'd have moved the slight risk further east,but that's just me

 

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Oct 26 2019 - 12Z Sat Oct 26 2019 

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY...

0100 UTC Update...Tweaks to the day 1 ERO were based largely on 
the latest observational trends. Unfortunately, even the most 
recent high-res CAM guidance is having difficulty with the QPF 
within the tropical plume ahead of Olga, as it becomes absorbed 
within the robust warm conveyor belt (wcb) ahead of the deepening 
trough. Model QPFs have been underdone, particularly over eastern 
LA, and particularly east of the MS-AL border. 

 

Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

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So much soaking rain for hs football tonight. Still drenching down out there.  All fall drought/fire concerns are now close to 0.  Picked up .88 so far since it started this afternoon with plenty more in the pipeline. 

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Regarding the high wind warning across the mountains and foothills, there have been some gusty conditions so far but nothing too impressive (based on Camp Creek data). The overall atmospheric conditions aren't overly favorable for strong mountain waves yet, but that should change significantly later this afternoon and into tonight as the surface low lifts north. This will put the East TN mountains and foothills in a very favorable position relative to the LLJ location and orientation.  The other atmospheric parameters look favorable as well, so there could be some very strong gusts in the usual spots.

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Regarding the high wind warning across the mountains and foothills, there have been some gusty conditions so far but nothing too impressive (based on Camp Creek data). The overall atmospheric conditions aren't overly favorable for strong mountain waves yet, but that should change significantly later this afternoon and into tonight as the surface low lifts north. This will put the East TN mountains and foothills in a very favorable position relative to the LLJ location and orientation.  The other atmospheric parameters look favorable as well, so there could be some very strong gusts in the usual spots.
Any idea where I can find gust speeds for Cherohala Skyway? We did a Jeep ride over/across it this afternoon and had some strong winds to deal with.

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk

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11 hours ago, Greyhound said:

Any idea where I can find gust speeds for Cherohala Skyway? We did a Jeep ride over/across it this afternoon and had some strong winds to deal with.

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk
 

I live in Tellico on the Skyway, highest station in elevation was at Indian Boundary on the TN side but it no longer reports. There is a couple of military areas near the peak, but have never seen anywhere you can access the info. 

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The High Wind Warning was warranted for sure (based on MRX reports), but it  wasn’t an impressive wind event for the typical areas. The wind direction at Camp Creek was very erratic during the event. Usually during mountain waves, the wind is consistently gusting from a very stable SE wind direction at CC.  I knew that conditions during the day yesterday weren’t the best for mountain wave formation, but I thought conditions would become more favorable during the evening. That never really happened… at least at Camp Creek.  My best guess is that there was too much of a southerly component around 700mb, so the critical layer wasn’t really established.  Still some downslope/ gap enhancements, but true stationary mountain waves had a hard time forming, based on the erratic wind directions at Camp Creek.

Greyhound, I’m not aware of any data in that area.

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45 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Blue Ridge has some great satellite photos in the severe thread of the downslope.  Looks like things were really rolling in Knox Co now.  Severe line now headed for NE TN.

Graph of how the downsloping kicked in this morning as the front approached 

20191031_123105.jpg

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Just a bunch of wind and rain IMBY.  The first day of October and the last day of October are about as polar opposite as one can get in regards to October.  LOL.  This entire day is October in a micro.  Started warm.  Gonna end cold.

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45 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Graph of how the downsloping kicked in this morning as the front approached 

20191031_123105.jpg

Growing up I had never heard of a downslope wind in this area.  Great find.  We have our own chinook... Folks that wonder what we talk about during winter storm downsloping events can get a good idea what we deal with from that map.  Sometimes I wonder what we called the "warm nose" was actually just a downslope event.  Now, obviously the warm nose is its own thing...but sometimes I think it is made worse by a downslope event.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Growing up I had never heard of a downslope wind in this area.  Great find.  We have our own chinook... Folks that wonder what we talk about during winter storm downsloping events can get a good idea what we deal with from that map.  Sometimes I wonder what we called the "warm nose" was actually just a downslope event.  Now, obviously the warm nose is its own thing...but sometimes I think it is made worse by a downslope event.

Completely agree with the mini "Chinook" effect Carver. Today was a good example of the tons of microclimates around the area. Due to the angle approach of the wind field with the front, the downsloping was not as pronounced over the southern foothills and valley....which is why I think there was more wind energy (and damage) across the central/northern valley counties. As far as winter storm effects, Tellico is a great area to study exactly what you are referring to. We sit in a horseshoe here in town, so it's easy to watch how the downsloping plays out. What I've noticed is when there is a warm 850 layer, with decent wind speeds, it does seemingly mix the 850 temps to the surface quicker....kinda going hand in hand with each other (downslope/warm nose). End result is usually Tellico has a quicker changeover to rain in that scenario, compared to all the other locations in the county.

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After the snowstorm of December 2018 (I call it the Great Snow-Flop). I am more than familiar with downsloping especially from Clinch Mountain. What could have been 12-18" of potential snow was but only 3" of sleet mixed with snow. I never analyzed the exact conditions that resulted in the downslope event but it still crosses my mind from time to time and in most major winter storms this does not occur. As for observations my area has experienced a drop of 17 degrees in the past two hours. 59 as of me typing this. A good old fall cold front is always fun.

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