Carvers Gap

Fall/Winter Banter 2019-2020

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9 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

What is the difference between the Euro Control and one of the 50 members in the Euro ensemble?

I believe the control is a lower resolution run of the main model but not 100 percent sure.  

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3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I believe the control is a lower resolution run of the main model but not 100 percent sure.  

Thanks. I thought it might be a higher resolution than the other members, but obviously not as high as the main. I guess that explains why it went bonkers on the latest run.

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Saw yesterday MRX put a graphic out that said this was Knoxville's earliest 1" snowfall and it listed November 1st 2014 at Tri-Cities. I knew that I had 3 inches on October 31st 1993, and I remember at least north Knoxville having an inch or more. I looked it up and it shows a trace at Tyson,  but it shows 1.3 inches at Tri-Cities. not sure how MRX missed 1993. 

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John, I am always thankful for your records.  2014 missed my back yard.  I had to go check the obs thread.  LOL.  Fortunately I posted there.  Missed on Sandy as well.  Good find on the 93 obs.   That turned out to be a cold winter as you have noted.  That is the winter that I always forget was cold.  I have been asking folks in this area if they remember getting an inch or more is snow this early...it has been a long time - I think.  I was was living at Papermill in Knoxville in ‘93...so I have no idea if Kingsport cashed in.  Seems like lately we have been getting more than the airport...For many years, Kingsport was always much lower than the surrounding county, partly due to the river I am sure and partly due to industry.  These days we seem to be on par.  Now, SW VA where @1234snow lives and @Daniel Boone and @BlunderStorm...that is a money pot up there.  Carter’s Valley northward is just gold.  I spent the winter of 85 in Carter’s Valley.  Twenty something below zero and snow on the ground for months.  I can remember sitting in Saturday snowday make-up school watching it snow!!!

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Don't sweat the small stuff.  Temp anomalies on the Euro Weeklies have had a severe warm bias for many months.   The bias begins after week 2.  They must have monkeyed with the algorithm.  The 500 pattern doesn't look to bad to me until mid-late December which is after d28.  The Weeklies have been pretty awful past week 3. Also, the Euro run from this morning was pretty awful.  The Weeklies are only as good as the run they are derived from.All of that said...I do have a warm December as part of my ideas, so I probably can't complains.  I don't think a warm December is a slam dunk though.  The GEFS has done a much better job of recognizing cold patterns.  It has flipped back cold for the past two runs.  The EPS also has erroneously tried to warm the current pattern several times.  I don't trust the GEFS, but the EPS has been equally bad if not worse.   It seems like some sort of BN heights are going to establish for a short amount of time in the Southwest(a few days...maybe even a week or two).  That said, the Euro also has a bias of not being able to get energy out of the SW - like ever.  It just sits there.  Need to keep an eye on the Greenland Block.  If it forms...it won't go as quickly as forecasted IMHO.  That said, HM has been banging the drum the Aleutian low is going to be a driver here.  I think that has potential to be the most important driver early during winter.   Keep in mind that the Weeklies completely missed the November cold pattern...almost a total whiff.  The EPS has been playing catch-up for about four weeks.  The only danger is that the GEFS is always cold....makes it tough to find the pattern change to warm if it occurs.  My money for now is on the GEFS, though I never really discount the Euro - but it has really struggled to see much cold at all in NA.

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5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro weeklies look awful. Hopefully that is an awesome sign!!!!

Last year it seemed like reality was the opposite of what they foretold:

giphy.gif 

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Here's the control,end of the run

AccuWeather com® Professional - Forecast Models111.png

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I don't know what it means but I have never seen the song birds so completely changed into their full mating colors so early in the year.  Early winter?  Early spring?  They are stunningly brilliant right now whatever it means.

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3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Just when I think the GFS can't surprise me, it does. 

One of the more bizarre looks for the pattern over North America I've ever seen at the end of its run. 

Almost like it is trying to set up the same pattern that caused flooding last Feb. but with snow. 

Just put in an order for gopher wood to Amazon.   

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27 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

GFS is like those Choose Your Own Adventure books. Remember those growing up? They are awesome books. For a weather model, not really.

Glad you are feeling better, Jeff.  Just curious, did you take the flu shot this year?

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4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

GFS is like those Choose Your Own Adventure books. Remember those growing up? They are awesome books. For a weather model, not really.

Awesome.  LOL.  That run looked like it was running for office...promised something to every region of the country, and no way it is going to deliver. 12z  GEFS looked steady though.    

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Gotta get that flu shot Jeff like Carver said.My daughter has had  bronchitis and of course she shared the wealth with me,finally feeling better today.My wife was going to work Sunday in Maryville and a kamikazee deer took aim  at our new car on I-40.Progressive said the estimate so far was 6 grand to fix but would let us know the total amount at least it's no-fault but glad she didn't wreck,i know i'd have freaked out

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2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Gotta get that flu shot Jeff like Carver said.My daughter has had  bronchitis and of course she shared the wealth with me,finally feeling better today.My wife was going to work Sunday in Maryville and a kamikazee deer took aim  at our new car on I-40.Progressive said the estimate so far was 6 grand to fix but would let us know the total amount at least it's no-fault but glad she didn't wreck,i know i'd have freaked out

Man, missed you during the latter half of this week.  Been too quiet on the forum.  Hate to hear that about the deer.   That is scary stuff.  There are loads in my neighborhood.  Around hunting season in my area, they frequent road areas and back yards.  And yeah, it would be hard not just to put it in the ditch if one smashed into the car...good job on her part to keep it in the road.  

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22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man, missed you during the latter half of this week.  Been too quiet on the forum.  Hate to hear that about the deer.   That is scary stuff.  There are loads in my neighborhood.  Around hunting season in my area, they frequent road areas and back yards.  And yeah, it would be hard not just to put it in the ditch if one smashed into the car...good job on her part to keep it in the road.  

Been nothing but a crappie week for us,not only a kid being sick and a deer hitting our car but our fridge went out and we lost everything in it,been nothing but a suckie week.Luckily we have home owner insurance that covers the fridge is the only thing good about it.

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15 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Been nothing but a crappie week for us,not only a kid being sick and a deer hitting our car but our fridge went out and we lost everything in it,been nothing but a suckie week.Luckily we have home owner insurance that covers the fridge is the only thing good about it.

That is pretty craptastic, but glad you are back!  Hopefully this week will be smoother.  I had a similar week about two weeks ago.   

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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

:weenie:

The Tennessee subform rocking impressive metaphors this week.  Pretty sure I will be laughing about Jeff's quote (about adventure books and the GFS) for a long time.  And  I will also be using the phrase in that tweet again - 99 cent bin superstorm.  :lmao:

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Yes we got flu shots. Mine may have mitigated a worse illness. I'm guessing this is the flu strain they didn't match perfectly, but better than nothing. Daughter was even milder, thankfully. Shows how the shot works differently for different people. Glad it did pretty well for her. Also remember the flu shot does nothing for a cold (different virus). 

Hopefully that puts the worst behind us for the season. In sports news Duke massively choked. Not sure whether to laugh or cry, since Kansas lost to Duke. Maui tournament rolls on with Kansas in the mix. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving!

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53 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Yes we got flu shots. Mine may have mitigated a worse illness. I'm guessing this is the flu strain they didn't match perfectly, but better than nothing. Daughter was even milder, thankfully. Shows how the shot works differently for different people. Glad it did pretty well for her. Also remember the flu shot does nothing for a cold (different virus). 

Hopefully that puts the worst behind us for the season. In sports news Duke massively choked. Not sure whether to laugh or cry, since Kansas lost to Duke. Maui tournament rolls on with Kansas in the mix. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving!

A childhood friend of mine sequences the DNA at the CDC for the flu vaccine.  Crazy, huh?  Some years they miss pretty badly.  Some years are really good.  

As for basketball, going to take some lumps with the new team in Knoxville this year.  With the #4 recruiting class in the country, help is on the way next year though.  Hopefully, we can still grab an NCAA tourney spot this year.  

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