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Carvers Gap

Fall/Winter Banter 2019-2020

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Thought I would kick off the fall season banter thread.  Definitely noticing leaves changing, especially along creeks and rivers.  Seeing sycamores, maples, and honey locust beginning to change.  Some of this is due to heat stress for sure, but definitely getting to be about the time that leaves begin to turn due to the days getting shorter.  Last year it took forever for the leaves to drop.  I suspect they are off the trees much earlier this year...that is not saying much since last year I only had about eight weeks between the end of leaf season and the beginning of mowing season.   

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For all my whining in the weather threads, both Tennessee and Kansas won this weekend. Football season always presents new possibilities!

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And the EPS control basically tries to pull off the same deal.  No way I think it verifies, but that is crazy to see tropical systems trying to phase into a massive cold front heading eastward on two models today.  It has happened before....but I just don't see this pattern breaking down like that.  Seems way too stubborn.  EPS mean will have none of it.  Would be interesting to see how the 1954 heat run finally broke since its November was so cold - measurable snow in some parts of the forum area that month.  If anything remotely similar happened to those runs today...I would laugh about it for years to come.  Anyway, that is is in Lala land and rightly so.  

DT's video in the pattern discussion thread does discuss a potential cold shot around October 15th thanks to the MJO.  I don't think it has staying power, but it would provide a welcome shot of seasonal to cooler air.  

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Not even gonna put in on the pattern discussion thread after the last head fake.  The Euro Weeklies have broken slightly with continuity IMHO this evening....much different 500 setup after mid-October.  The control brought repetitive shots of cooler air into the East from that time to early Nov.  Will waiter for another run before really dissecting it after last time.

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Kansas is the flyover country scapegoat for UNC and Duke sins. If the NCAA lets fake classes go, and then punishes Kansas after we preemptively benched players, it's truly crony and corrupt. FBI cleared Kansas. If the NCAA does not they are truly lawless frauds.

Self is right to fight like Bleeding Kansas. Just in case.. When's Tennessee basketball start?

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27 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Kansas is the flyover country scapegoat for UNC and Duke sins. If the NCAA lets fake classes go, and then punishes Kansas after we preemptively benched players, it's truly crony and corrupt. FBI cleared Kansas. If the NCAA does not they are truly lawless frauds.

Self is right to fight like Bleeding Kansas. Just in case.. When's Tennessee basketball start?

Ugh.  Trust me, Tennessee basketball fans know all to well about the uneven hand of the NCAA and the SEC commish.  We feel your pain.  Have to fight them for sure.  We didn't and we should have.  And trust me, basketball season can't get here fast enough!!!!  LOL.

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13 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Kansas is the flyover country scapegoat for UNC and Duke sins. If the NCAA lets fake classes go, and then punishes Kansas after we preemptively benched players, it's truly crony and corrupt. FBI cleared Kansas. If the NCAA does not they are truly lawless frauds.

Self is right to fight like Bleeding Kansas. Just in case.. When's Tennessee basketball start?

Sure we're next :(

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I'm afraid in Jayhawk Land the buzzword is NCAA. Wake me up in May. All is see through April is bad news, fake UNC classes, and AN temps.

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

I'm afraid in Jayhawk Land the buzzword is NCAA. Wake me up in May. All is see through April is bad news, fake UNC classes, and AN temps.

...Just in time for the beginning of four months of yet another record -NAO.  

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Somehow we'll whiff down here. Great for Anthony up in New Jersey though, haha. Continue warmer than normal winter forecast.

Oh I hate the sterile white board. No way to change? Looks just awful 33 and rainish. American Weather remains the superior weather board.

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KC Chiefs really pissed me off first half. I was wondering why I ever wished they'd be on TV here. Finally the game ended well for KC. Love to get Detroit out of their dome in Arrowhead, but we'll take the W there!

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Jeff it is apparent that your being upset with the Chiefs is affecting our weather outlooks. We need you in a positive attitude and bring the death blow to the SER. You and only you can do this!!

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I'll start being positive when the KC defense shows up, lol! Although that surprise touchdown was clutch.

To be honest most of my angst is related to the NCAA - national commies against athletes.

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So lettuce talk about the GFS after 300...this is in banter so that in itself is an acknowledgement of the situation and if that wasn't enough then I refer to "lettuce."  To be clear...I don't think that is going to happen.  However, both the Euro and the GFS have tried to dig a trough just far enough south that it grabs a tropical system and forms some extra-tropical something.  I don't think that is out of the question.  But the GFS today almost took that a step further....if that tropical system had been picked-up a shade earlier that would have likely meant yet another year with heavy, early mountain snows which we now know is the kiss of death for winter.  All it will take is one powerful cold front(of which several have been shown after this weekend...no idea if any of those verify) to pick-up a rare GOM storm of which models have been hinting at for a few days.  Now, I am all for it because it would rain here and we would ironically finish the summer the way that we began - wet.  Anyway, this is a BIG "what if" post which is "way out there" so hence the reason for it being here.

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On 9/30/2019 at 11:02 AM, nrgjeff said:

I'll start being positive when the KC defense shows up, lol! Although that surprise touchdown was clutch.

To be honest most of my angst is related to the NCAA - national commies against athletes.

I just need Tyreek Hill to come back for FF purposes........... is that too much to ask?

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23 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

So lettuce talk about the GFS after 300...this is in banter so that in itself is an acknowledgement of the situation and if that wasn't enough then I refer to "lettuce."  To be clear...I don't think that is going to happen.  However, both the Euro and the GFS have tried to dig a trough just far enough south that it grabs a tropical system and forms some extra-tropical something.  I don't think that is out of the question.  But the GFS today almost took that a step further....if that tropical system had been picked-up a shade earlier that would have likely meant yet another year with heavy, early mountain snows which we now know is the kiss of death for winter.  All it will take is one powerful cold front(of which several have been shown after this weekend...no idea if any of those verify) to pick-up a rare GOM storm of which models have been hinting at for a few days.  Now, I am all for it because it would rain here and we would ironically finish the summer the way that we began - wet.  Anyway, this is a BIG "what if" post which is "way out there" so hence the reason for it being here.

I don't want any part of early and heavy snows (in October).  I'm not superstitious, but I have definitely seen that movie a couple of times before.

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Rank snow black holes.

Washington DC

Asheville NC

Chattanooga 

Tri Cities (without synoptic help)

KC Chiefs defense

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33 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Rank snow black holes.

Washington DC

Asheville NC

Chattanooga 

Tri Cities (without synoptic help)

KC Chiefs defense

LOL.  Nashville folks may want "in" on this ranking, probably Memphis as well...and maybe whatever defense showed up against Georgia State.  Also, I am a Steelers fan.  I feel fairly certain Rudolph sort of feels like he wondered into a snow black hole on Sunday after getting knocked out cold.  

 

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That hit was brutal. Hope the NFL levies heavy fines.

Kansas and Tennessee fans counting down to basketball season.

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Appears CBS will show the KC Chiefs in Chattanooga and most of East Tenn. Hopefully I don't throw a shoe at the TV. Can't deal with another loss.

I will stay warm winter if KC wins. Does look like another cold front later in October. Jury is out until November pattern shows itself. 

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