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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2019 OBS Thread

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Next weekend keeps trending colder, below freezing for highs in early November is anomalous cold. Then there's last Novembers radical mid November record PV attack seems real nutty weather is a common occurrence now. 

I don't think cold enough for snow weather is something we want to see this early, just cause it isn't timed with moisture to snow doesn't make it any less an omen.

 

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Wow.  I saw that the NWS confirmed an EF2 in Delco -

I guess what was originally considered a "meh" line decided to prove that it had other plans. :yikes:

My sister who lives in Wyndmoor has had her power out since last night and and most of her township (Springfield in Montco) had outages including the schools (which were closed today due to that).

Glen Mills is my post office, but down here we just heard the storm chugging by, probably a couple of minutes before touch down. Pretty awesome sounding, and unusual, especially on Halloween and at 11:30 pm. I'll admit I was on the edge of my seat on the porch, lol. Glad that (apparently) no one was hurt.

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51 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Only an 8 hour power outage. An EF2 this time of year is a crazy happening is that a record strength?

 

 

Just got power back here, yay! Running water is awesome! So will the heating system be tonight (the boiler and all).

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50 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Next weekend keeps trending colder, below freezing for highs in early November is anomalous cold. Then there's last Novembers radical mid November record PV attack seems real nutty weather is a common occurrence now. 

I don't think cold enough for snow weather is something we want to see this early, just cause it isn't timed with moisture to snow doesn't make it any less an omen.

 

New GFS has been great for head fakes thus far anyway:

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_50.png

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48 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Glen Mills is my post office, but down here we just heard the storm chugging by, probably a couple of minutes before touch down. Pretty awesome sounding, and unusual, especially on Halloween and at 11:30 pm. I'll admit I was on the edge of my seat on the porch, lol. Glad that (apparently) no one was hurt.

I was thinking that was near where you are (or at least north of you).  I am really shocked that it was an EF2, which is rare around this area during the severe season, let alone when we are well into fall. :o

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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

Glen Mills is my post office, but down here we just heard the storm chugging by, probably a couple of minutes before touch down. Pretty awesome sounding, and unusual, especially on Halloween and at 11:30 pm. I'll admit I was on the edge of my seat on the porch, lol. Glad that (apparently) no one was hurt.

yep, i was up picking through the candy haul when the warning went off...wife wanted to wake the kids and scramble to the basement but as it was a couple of miles northeast of us i talked her down...definitely was loud though...

edit: never lost power thankfully

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Here are the LSRs for Delaware County and for Bucks County -

Quote
NWUS51 KPHI 012228
 LSRPHI
 
 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
 628 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2019
 
 ..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
 ..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..
 
 1125 PM     TORNADO          GLEN MILLS              39.92N 75.52W
 10/31/2019                   DELAWARE           PA   NWS STORM SURVEY 
 
             *** 2 INJ *** 
             A TORNADO EMBEDDED IN A LARGER AREA OF 
             STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TOUCHED DOWN JUST 
             SOUTHWEST OF THE COBBLESTONE AT THORNBURY 
             SUBDIVISION IN THE TOWN OF GLEN MILLS, 
             DELAWARE COUNTY AT 11:25 PM EDT, THURSDAY, 
             OCTOBER 31, 2019. DAMAGE NEAR THE BEGINNING 
             OF THE TORNADO PATH ALONG CHENEY ROAD 
             CONSISTED OF A FEW SPORADIC UPROOTED TREES 
             AND ASSOCIATED COLLATERAL DAMAGE OF ADJACENT 
             HOMES. HOWEVER, AS THE TORNADO REACHED ITS 
             MAXIMUM EF2 STRENGTH, THE NUMBER AND SIZE OF 
             UPROOTED TREES INCREASED WITH SIGNIFICANT 
             ASSOCIATED DAMAGE TO NEARBY HOMES. THREE 
             HOUSES SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE FROM THE 
             WIND ITSELF, WHICH, BASED ON THIS SURVEY, 
             PEAKED AROUND 120 MPH. AS THE EF2 TORNADO 
             CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST, AT LEAST TWO 
             GREENHOUSES WERE DESTROYED BEFORE IT LIFTED 
             NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ORCHARD AND 
             BROOMALL LANES. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT 
             STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE CONTINUED BEYOND 
             THIS INTERSECTION WITH DOZENS OF SNAPPED AND 
             UPROOTED TREES, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE GOLF 
             COURSE AT GLEN MILLS, BEFORE THE STRONG 
             WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
             LIMITS. THE NWS SURVEY TEAM WOULD LIKE TO 
             THANK DELAWARE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
             FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE WITH THIS SURVEY. 
 
 
 &&
 
 $$
 
 STAARMANN
Quote
NWUS51 KPHI 012237
 LSRPHI
 
 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
 637 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2019
 
 ..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
 ..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..
 
 1145 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW WARMINSTER        40.22N 75.11W
 10/31/2019  E110 MPH         BUCKS              PA   NWS STORM SURVEY 
 
             *** 2 INJ *** 
             A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM 
             DETERMINED THAT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WERE THE 
             CAUSE OF TREE, UTILITY, AND COLLATERAL 
             STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE VICINITY OF 
             HARTSVILLE, WARMINSTER TOWNSHIP, BUCKS 
             COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA ON OCTOBER 31, 2019. 
             MULTIPLE HOMES SUSTAINED DAMAGE FROM FALLING 
             TREES ON AND NEAR BARNESS DR, AND SEVERAL 
             UTILITY POLES WERE SNAPPED NEAR THEIR BASE 
             ALONG STREET RD. WIND GUSTS UP TO 110 MPH 
             WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DAMAGE ALONG A 
             SPORADIC AND NON-CONTINUOUS PATH, ALTHOUGH 
             MOST AREAS EXPERIENCED WINDS OF LESSER 
             MAGNITUDE. THE NWS SURVEY TEAM WOULD LIKE TO 
             THANK BUCKS COUNTY EMERGENCY SERVICES AND 
             THE HARTSVILLE FIRE DEPARTMENT FOR THEIR 
             ASSISTANCE WITH THIS SURVEY. 
 
 
 &&
 
 $$
 
 STAARMANN

 

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4 hours ago, MacChump said:

yep, i was up picking through the candy haul when the warning went off...wife wanted to wake the kids and scramble to the basement but as it was a couple of miles northeast of us i talked her down...definitely was loud though...

edit: never lost power thankfully

Way to use your weather knowledge/awareness, lol. Comes in handy sometimes...

Eta - get any Reese's?

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36 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Way to use your weather knowledge/awareness, lol. Comes in handy sometimes...

Eta - get any Reese's?

I did. My younger daughter doesn’t like them so she hands them off to to me as she gets them. She’s a good kid. 

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On 11/1/2019 at 2:31 PM, KamuSnow said:

Glen Mills is my post office, but down here we just heard the storm chugging by, probably a couple of minutes before touch down. Pretty awesome sounding, and unusual, especially on Halloween and at 11:30 pm. I'll admit I was on the edge of my seat on the porch, lol. Glad that (apparently) no one was hurt.

I'm just shy of 2 miles from where that happened. When that line came through we had a huge surge of wind and rain and could see lightning in the distance but amazingly our power did't go out and not even a branch fell on the property. I drive through that area every day on my way to work and the damage was epic. Cheyney Road was closed off, obviously, and Creek Road (which feeds into Cheyney Road up by Cheyney University) was an obstacle course. Cheyney University had some major good karma in its hip pocket to avoid that near miss.

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Some interesting developments on the horizon. Both the GFS and Euro are rather close to something late week (Friday?) with a lp area sliding South and unseasonably cold air hanging around. Would likely favor those climo and elevated areas but who knows? Something to tease us. Then the GFS is showing a chunk of the PV visiting the OV and Northeast around the 13th with some mood flakes (maybe something more?). Again, some things to keep us entertained at least.

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Last Novembers arctic PV drop was a 1 in 100 year event. GFS is close to making it 2 in 100, ECM is hinting at it as well. Last winter sucked big time let's not do this again.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Only a slight difference on the GFS vs ECM eh ^

 

Euro is slightly more amped digs the trof just a bit more. GFS really isnt that far off tbh. Euro is right in between the eps and gfs OP which if this were 4 weeks from now most of us would be greatly intrigued. Not a bad place to be. Again, something to finally tease us that isnt just the para gfs.

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