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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2019 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Growing evidence of a mild December after an initial chilly start with a strong +AO. Nothing like wasting cold in November.

 

 

Not quite seeing what you are.... I like a normal December temp wise....after a cold 1st 10 days of the month with an overall above average snow month....before a snowy January. Best month to "waste" cold is November

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1 hour ago, greenskeeper said:

always a glass half empty guy....year after year...at least you are consistent 

Glass half empty and someone took a drink from it and left their partial sunk at the bottom

Tried positive last year and it went two bagger ugly. Isotherm, Hurricane and Weather World see a mild December let's see how it shakes out.

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, RedSky said:

Growing evidence of a mild December after an initial chilly start with a strong +AO. Nothing like wasting cold in November.

 

 

At least 3 trackable events, possibly 4 thru the first week or so  of December and some people are already way down the line writing December off and looking to January lol? Some things never change I guess. Peak climo isnt here yet so anything before say the 3rd week of Dec is a bonus. With that said I'm not 'expecting' snow with any of these threats....just saying there are possibilities worth tracking. Definitely not a shutout look moving forward. Maybe a relax/reload of the current pattern as has been well-advertised, but the background state of this coming winter is already showing itself.

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28 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Three or four trackable events when event one is a week away and uncertain, come on man we need pics of that hot tub time machine lol

 

So when do we track? Under 36 hours? Cut us a break Red. 

Anyway, getting skeptical of this ++ao that is forecast to have staying power. All ens break it down quickly and most now have a strong cpf established first 10 days of December. I'm thinking the ao spike is the PV reflection as it is splitting at the trop level.and migrating across the N Pole to Hudson bay and farther south. Once it splits and crosses that region should see the ao go negative again. Will likely fluctuate thru winter but we are seeing good signs in the right HL spots over and over.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Weeklies just tossed out the idea of a warm december fwiw and instead try to reestablish HL blocking and CPF. This December is going to be different. @RedSky let me know when you're ready to enter the time machine. $10k no refunds and no coming back :P

50 years in the future, no wait AI cleansed the planet of humans  make it 10,000 B.C. 

 

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Nice temp inversion around Western Chester County this morning with Low spots well below freezing including Marsh Creek down below 400 feet at 28.0  and PTW at 30.9 - while here in East Nantmeal at 685 ft we bask at 38.4. Would be interesting to find out how many less freezing days we have here up the mountain incline

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19 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Nice temp inversion around Western Chester County this morning with Low spots well below freezing including Marsh Creek down below 400 feet at 28.0  and PTW at 30.9 - while here in East Nantmeal at 685 ft we bask at 38.4. Would be interesting to find out how many less freezing days we have here up the mountain incline

You're basking more than me. I'm currently at 35 near the 400ft asl range. :D  Some of the lower elevation sensors around Springfield & Cheltenham townships are at or barely above freezing and the ones in those same areas near the tops of all these hills are running warmer - in the 38/39 range.

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3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

If anything, step outside. Very gusty winds, temps dropping and the view of a  low sun angle. Feels and looks like winter w/o snow...yeah, that sucks but overall not horrible if you like winter. Better than a blow torch w/birds chirping.... 

Ha just saw this. I thought spring you say winter. Where's my snow and frigid temps!? :P

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