• Member Statistics

    15,773
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2019 OBS Thread

Recommended Posts

Coastal low this week should be interesting to track. Incredible spread among the models at such a short range. Ranges anywhere from 1"+ qpf for most of the 95 corridor S and E to rain being confined to the coast. Tough forecast for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎10‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 10:30 AM, The Iceman said:

Coastal low this week should be interesting to track. Incredible spread among the models at such a short range. Ranges anywhere from 1"+ qpf for most of the 95 corridor S and E to rain being confined to the coast. Tough forecast for sure.

Hope this isn't a sign of things this winter. Tired of the tight gradient stuff the last couple of winters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WAR keeps redeveloping on ens and has been an off and on feature all summer. Really hoping that feature isnt a recurring theme and a repeat of last year. Not saying it will be...just have a bad taste still from last winter so obviously watching for trends.

Winter outlook is being worked on....will release by early Nov as always.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Real nice day thanks to the forecast missing the mark by 100 miles

 

Dear God if this were January and we were expecting a coastal with a track somewhat similar to what most guidance was showing yet we woke up to cloudless skies like today, I cant even imagine the mass cliff jumping.

Btw, DT's epic monster Noreaster pattern for Oct 19th or whatever suddenly doesnt look so epic. We're not going to do this "let me be the first to spot a storm 3 weeks out" again this year I hope? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/5/2019 at 3:15 PM, Rtd208 said:

A little further down the road.

 

1st image is euro ens....2nd image gfs ens....3rd image cmc ens. Warmish ridge in the east, any stormy regime out West or confined deep South. Maybe this will change, maybe not. Point isnt to troll DT or LC but LR forecasting is humbling as most of us saw last year:

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_38.png

gem-ens_z500a_namer_38.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

⬆️⬆️ this is what I am getting concerned about. Second time recently LR showed an excellent stormy regime in the East only to be replaced by a redeveloping WAR and trof out West. Like groundhog day....hopefully just leftovers from last winter and the trends/tendencies over NA progress into something else over the next several weeks.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

+NAO

SE ridge

Lack of Miller A's

Any frozen will have to come from a "thread the needle" system

 

Seems as safe a winter outlook as any.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First of hopefully many coastal storms tomorrow. Looks like 1-2" of rain for most of the area and winds 25-30 MPH with gusts of 40. I really enjoy these fall coastals and I feel like it's a good sign for winter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS has shown some big time cold coming into the end of the month. First freeze in late october would make for a chilly halloween. PS let's get this look in mid winter plz.

 

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_65.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure I want to see this in Oct. Likely wont happen but snow in the metro in Oct is usually the kiss of death for the winter:

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_59.png

Good news, it's gone on the 6z run lol I don't think we'll see any snow in late october, the depth of the cold 95% won't be strong enough to hold in place. I do like the look at the end of the month and I hope the trend of late of patterns locking in holds up here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

But serious could this look lock in from december to february? Thx

 

gfs_z500a_namer_60.png

Last year when we had these looks and the WAR was present the LR models kept pumping out unicorns like this with the ridging in the W Atl feeding a neg NAO. But as lead time lessened we saw time and time again that the WAR never fed high later blocking and was either transient or just set up shop and never really linked up. Maybe this season can be different, but as much as many wont admit, this has been recurring for several seasons now and getting a sustained neg NAO has been like trying to get a Wonka Bar golden ticket.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Last year when we had these looks and the WAR was present the LR models kept pumping out unicorns like this with the ridging in the W Atl feeding a neg NAO. But as lead time lessened we saw time and time again that the WAR never fed high later blocking and was either transient or just set up shop and never really linked up. Maybe this season can be different, but as much as many wont admit, this has been recurring for several seasons now and getting a sustained neg NAO has been like trying to get a Wonka Bar golden ticket.

Last three winters were all Slugworth 

*xcpt blizz of 2016 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Started getting the rain here just after noon today and the rates have steadily increased throughout the afternoon. Currently up to 0.90" at post time with varying rates from about 1/3rd to 3/4"/hr, but with the heaviest sustained rain occurring now.  This is the highest rainfall total here (so far) since 8/14 believe it or not (when I had 1.03").  High today was 64 after a low of 49 and the current temp is 60 with heavy rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.