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AMZ8990

Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

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Not sure what to think about this winter.I'm on the side right now for the ENSO to be on the warmer side into winter.More Nino and not neutral.The easterlies into the IO are the strongest they've been since 2001,but this was a ending of a LaNina year early on that stayed neutral negative the rest of the year in 2001.The sea ice is competing with 2012 for an annual low,which there was a severe drought into into the plains and even into parts of the SE in 2012,but either way this year will be well below the median from 1981-2010 early on

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10 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Not sure what to think about this winter.I'm on the side right now for the ENSO to be on the warmer side into winter.More Nino and not neutral.The easterlies into the IO are the strongest they've been since 2001,but this was a ending of a LaNina year early on that stayed neutral negative the rest of the year in 2001.The sea ice is competing with 2012 for an annual low,which there was a severe drought into into the plains and even into parts of the SE in 2012,but either way this year will be well below the median from 1981-2010 early on

Plenty of conflicting signals for sure.   Timing is so important to winter forecasts in terms of trough placement and whether or not cold air is available to fill the trough.  Then if one wants snow, need storms included in the cold pattern with preferably no drought.  If I had to list the things that I don't want to see show-up for winter they would probably be a drought and a positive AO.  I don't like a positive NAO, but as John has noted, the NAO is less important if the AO can go strongly negative.  Now, if we could get both to go negative, awesome.  However, I think as you had noted earlier in the fall, that NAO has been negative a long time and is likely to flip positive at some point.  So, a +PNA/-AO combo is probably our ticket and just tough to know if those will be in place DJF...but we do need to get out of this drought for two reasons.  First, multiple rainfall chances during fall will likely equal multiple winter chances(assuming the pattern continues)  if we can get cold air in place.  Second, a severe drought might very well be a magnet for the SER.

 

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The cooler balance of October is supported by the robust Kelvin wave and convection pushing out across the International Date Line. Last week of October could warm up again; however, I'm on board with a mild/cool 1-15 day forecast.

Unfortunately the rest of my post is bad news. Starts with early and dull leaves on the Cumberland Plateau. Had to go to/from BNA from CHA this week. Pitiful start to fall foliage.

Next the Modoki El Nino might not help us in East Tenn. I'm afraid most of the time the PNA sets up to deliver the the West and Plains better. October is no indicator. November behavior is much better correlated with balance of winter. Also +AMO is warm signal here. Believe solar min and -AO is not enough either, due to a weak source region. Falling QBO I think would normally be favorable (trend vs snapshot) but again source region.

QBO trend over snapshot was mentioned at the conference I attended last week, good stuff. Also we talked about possible opposite temperature behavior South with the AO, due to climate change. So like in summer -AO is actually warm South even if cold Great Lakes as the jet stream screams through the Ohio Valley. +AO I guess is torch everywhere.

Believe the only way back to winters in the South is a long deep solar min. If it is starting now, probably have to wait another winter or two. Then, when the solar minimum is over... See the Climate Change section for no more winter!

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Our grass right now when you walk on it is like if you put a hand full of chips in your hand and squeeze them,crunch,crunch.The foliage is just as sad,with some trees already changing colors and the others the leaves are just drooping downwards to the ground,pretty sad.

SPC has west of I-65 in a marginal risk tomorrow,right now the Euro strenghtens the LLJ's into Mid Valley into the east,so chances are if you were to get a severe t-storm with wind,leave loss could be sig.Not a great year for foliage for sure

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Time will tell I guess in regards to winter.  I still like my post from June regarding winter...I might change, but they still look reasonable.  West gets winter early and East gets it for January and February.   Definitely agree that October and September are normally poor indicators for winter...actually summers are also poor indicators of winter unless there is an ongoing drought.  November can be a great indicator, but last year was definitely not.  I do actually think -AOs during winter are fairly good for this area but have to be combined with some sort of forcing mechanism or the cold dumps West.  Some sort of PNA/EPO ridge has generally led to some severe cold outbreaks during the past several winters with the -NAO being absent - just depends on whether there is a SER as to whether the cold dumps and holds mid-continent or rolls eastward.  I didn't have access to Euro seasonal until today just before this post...of note, last winter that tool wast truly awful.  This winter I have generally made a pact with myself not to give much credence to LR models past four weeks other than just to give them a passing glance as last winter they verified nearly opposite of actual weather.  The Euro products are frustrating because they rarely forecast cold...not sure why that is.  They have basically busted on the cold temps in the West, and they potentially may miss the Eastern trough that is forecast to develop next weekend.  That said, the Euro products seem to do a better job with the 500 pattern which is good enough for me.  I just filter out the AN temps under an eastern trough and know it will be seasonal to below.  Indeed, the Euro seasonal does park the trough mid-continent with a lean West for DJ and then trough-ish Feb - weak Nino climo.  Do I buy that this early?  No.  After last winter,  just tough to trust any model past about three weeks.  Regarding October as a benchmark, the one way one could use October to forecast December is if one can extrapolate out a pattern and know when a pattern will end.  For example, if a trough does set-up shop in the East for mid-October and into part of November, one can probably guess that the much of December will likely be warm as that pattern breaks down and the SE ridge returns.   Then, one might guess that the December SER pattern would break down by mid-January using the 4-6 week run for pattern cycles.  That actually does fit the Euro seasonal 500 pattern, but not fall forecast.  But right now, until the pattern actually re-establishes after this burst of shorter wavelengths...just tough to know much.  The past few winters have not played nicely...and I expect this one to be similar.  I am really neither encouraged or discouraged at this point, just glad the extreme heat is leaving and likely to stay gone regarding long stretches of 90s IMBY.  I do realize that SE, middle, and west TN may have to battle the 90s a few more times.  I don't ever expect much in terms of winter for October or November during any year, so no real disappointment there....just get me back close to average.  

Leaves...definitely a stall after some changes in August prior to these record high temps.  I suspect they really get moving over the next two weeks.  Probably will be a quick peak at higher elevations as fall storms will knock those leaves off quickly once they change.  Looking like a Halloween peak here at TRI with oaks holding onto their leaves well into November and December.  I have noticed that oaks have a real tendency to hold onto their leaves due to fall warm temps.  Maples drop their leaves pretty quickly no matter what.  So yeah, probably not a great year for leaves due to the ongoing drought and the extreme heat...It is possible that the extreme heat has slowed the leaves from turning and thus the cooler weather and rain will actually make for a decent change at lower elevations...just tough to tell.  Definitely will be some consequence form the extreme heat. Glad it is gone.  I suspect that the records set in October will be ones that might not be broken(in large numbers like this year) for many years to come thankfully.  

Severe heat is getting ready to hit the rearview mirror, but afraid I am going to have to sit through some bad football for a few more months.  What a great September combo...high temps and bad football.  At least one is likely gone.

Whew!  Long post...going to enjoy some TV for the rest of the day and tomorrow.  Hopefully on Monday the LR hasn't gone to crap!  LOL.

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A few decent showers over the past couple of weeks have saved my area at least somewhat from the fate Jax has met. Though as he said this year is not too great for fall foliage. Hopefully with a couple shots of cool/cold air in the next two weeks we can see some decent color before all is said and done. Recent modeling remains encouraging with the transient pattern bringing surprises. Although it is perhaps less hawkish with the Monday front in more recent runs. (at least for the eastern half of the TN-Valley) Regardless, this switch up delivers what we all need most RAIN.

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9 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

The cooler balance of October is supported by the robust Kelvin wave and convection pushing out across the International Date Line. Last week of October could warm up again; however, I'm on board with a mild/cool 1-15 day forecast.

Unfortunately the rest of my post is bad news. Starts with early and dull leaves on the Cumberland Plateau. Had to go to/from BNA from CHA this week. Pitiful start to fall foliage.

Next the Modoki El Nino might not help us in East Tenn. I'm afraid most of the time the PNA sets up to deliver the the West and Plains better. October is no indicator. November behavior is much better correlated with balance of winter. Also +AMO is warm signal here. Believe solar min and -AO is not enough either, due to a weak source region. Falling QBO I think would normally be favorable (trend vs snapshot) but again source region.

QBO trend over snapshot was mentioned at the conference I attended last week, good stuff. Also we talked about possible opposite temperature behavior South with the AO, due to climate change. So like in summer -AO is actually warm South even if cold Great Lakes as the jet stream screams through the Ohio Valley. +AO I guess is torch everywhere.

Believe the only way back to winters in the South is a long deep solar min. If it is starting now, probably have to wait another winter or two. Then, when the solar minimum is over... See the Climate Change section for no more winter!

Hi nrgjeff, i am kevin from ne arkansas. Ive read your posts for years and i am finally commenting. I have a few questions. I know its only October, but do you think it should be a colder winter than last winter? From my understanding, and correct me if i am incorrect, but if the IOD remains positive and qbo drops, wouldn't that allow a trough more in the central/east with mjo staying or tendency to stay in phase 1-2 most of winter, which are colder phases? Perhaps you believe the coldest weather will be west of the southeast US? Thanks in advance.

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Easterlies into the IO today shows it weakens  sooner than what CFS has been showing recently,not really sure where the MJO will come out or how strong it will be.Still looks like a WWB around 120W,but there seems to be a more robust Rossby Wave today this could kill off the wind burst,you can see this around 120W,i still believe this will be possible to kick up a Kelvin east of the IDL

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

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5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Easterlies into the IO today shows it weakens  sooner than what CFS has been showing recently,not really sure where the MJO will come out or how strong it will be.Still looks like a WWB around 120W,but there seems to be a more robust Rossby Wave today this could kill off the wind burst,you can see this around 120W,i still believe this will be possible to kick up a Kelvin east of the IDL

Tropical Monitoring    North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.png

Hi jax. In reality, do we need alot of changes in Pacific and Atlantic to have a better chance at a colder winter? I hear so many possibilities and dont know who to believe  lol. Last winter wasnt cold except for November. 

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9 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Hi jax. In reality, do we need alot of changes in Pacific and Atlantic to have a better chance at a colder winter? I hear so many possibilities and dont know who to believe  lol. Last winter wasnt cold except for November. 

Probably have to wait and see,never like to see a drought this time of season.Seasonals should start rolling out anytime,really like to see what they show

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Teleconnections are less useful south of 40 degrees N now post climate change. The 6-10 day forecast is testament to the 11-15 day fail. Where is our East cold? It's out West!

Big typhoon is progged in the Pacific. Look for fun times forecasting October. Weeks 3-4 forecasts are notoriously awful. However, seasonal forecasting (2-5 months) clearly adds value over climo. Reason is less granular. Nailing weeks 3-4 is shooting for the moon, and beyond the state of the art of the science. Broad brushing months 2-5 is both possible and valuable. 

I have to assume a return to split regime IO/PO Tropical convection in November. If the IOD weakens and Nino gets more full basin (with the +AMO) that's too much warm ocean. Will continue AN temps for winter East Tenn. Delta could see more cold oozing down east of the Ozarks some events.

Southeast Tennessee snow impeachment inquiry continues.

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3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Teleconnections are less useful south of 40 degrees N now post climate change. The 6-10 day forecast is testament to the 11-15 day fail. Where is our East cold? It's out West!

Big typhoon is progged in the Pacific. Look for fun times forecasting October. Weeks 3-4 forecasts are notoriously awful. However, seasonal forecasting (2-5 months) clearly adds value over climo. Reason is less granular. Nailing weeks 3-4 is shooting for the moon, and beyond the state of the art of the science. Broad brushing months 2-5 is both possible and valuable. 

I have to assume a return to split regime IO/PO Tropical convection in November. If the IOD weakens and Nino gets more full basin (with the +AMO) that's too much warm ocean. Will continue AN temps for winter East Tenn. Delta could see more cold oozing down east of the Ozarks some events.

Southeast Tennessee snow impeachment inquiry continues.

Be nice to see the phoon re-curve further east for a change.Going with the Euro it's going to hit SE Japan and then get absorbed by the  half way decent trough moving through East Asia around D8, by the Euro this afternoon,we could possibly have a trough in the east,roughly around 15-16 days give or take if it is right

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The drought is a problem right now for much of E TN.  I thought the last drought monitor update was woefully underdone for Sullivan County.  It is bone dry for my end of the county.   These systems just lose steam as they crash into a very dry air mass at the surface.  Going to take several rounds of precip to knock that down.  But right now anything will help.  If we can get .25-.30" of rain during the next 24 hours, it will at least help with what could easily become a growing fire season threat.  

Our temps here are like living in the dessert.  With little humidity, temps can change quickly with or without sun depending.  We have sun in Kingsport and that in turn has allowed for forecast high temps to be already reached.  Happened yesterday as well.  Rain should cap those temps when it moves in.

LR, it will be interesting to see what happens.  This long lasting -NAO has teleconnected very well to the heat this summer and fall.  At some point if it keeps up, that will teleconnect to cold temps in the East.  My gut says if flips positive for most of this winter.  Problem is that it is one of the hardest features IMHO to actually predict with accuracy past two weeks.

Also LR, I tend to favor a more progressive pattern through October and November with periods of ridges and troughs without either locking in for long periods of time - maybe weighted something like 40% trough and 60% ridge.  If the eastern ridge does re-develop, wouldn't be surprised to see Nino climo undercut that ridge....still the change in wavelengths is our friend right now.  The MJO is finally showing some signs of leaving phase one and at least peaking at phase 2 for both the CFS and ECMWF.  

Once we enter the winter season and the pattern stabilizes, we will know where that ridge sets ups shop.  My June forecast for winter has a trough  penciled in for the West with the trough eventually moving to the East by Jan/Feb which fits Nino climatology.  The item that makes the forecast tough is that the ENSO regions closest to South America my well be more like a La Nina and that can present problems with a Southeast Ridge when present.

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Spike in AAM and MJO wave (that sparked Hagibis) should deliver some BN temps here next week. As Jax noted the supertyphoon may not curve right (more later). At any rate we'll have that stubborn low off the East Coast and new front early next week to keep temps in check. That front next week will be the true usher of cooler air. Takes 2-3 to beat down a SER.

Now the remnants of Hagibis are forecast to slam into the Pacific Northwest, rather than amp up a long-lasting AK ridge. When the Pac NW gets the fire hose, it's usually blowtorch east of the Rockies. Oh yeah, 360 hour ensembles all have, you guess it.. More SER! Never trust a deterministic that far. However when clusters are so lined up in agreement with another synoptic teleconnection (Pac NW) I'll go warm again here late October. 

Sets up a warm Novie. Nino climo is warm December. Carvers may be right about a colder shift back half of winter. However I'll go with the brief version. How about another warm Feb? I'll go another KC Chiefs playoff disappointment and mild winter.

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I will say that while a warmish December would not surprise me...I also would not be surprised for a lot of clouds and rains.  I am a little nervous calling for rain during December as E TN droughts have a tendency to self-perpetuate(look at the rain bands falling apart today) sometimes without a ton of warning.  IMBY, a lot of times the reason that Nino Decembers are warm is that nighttime temps are AN with daytime temps only slightly above.  I will say that the SER will be an absolute bear if it doesn't rain IMHO...OTH super dry air over E TN does sometimes make cold air masses worse as the nighttime lows go really low with not humidity.  

I have not bitten not he typhoon recurve yet.  I suspect that may be part of the back-and-forth in the LR with ridge/trough placement.  Those recurving typhoons can make a mess out of modeling until they get resolved in modeling (which might be happening already).  I read somewhere on Twitter(saw it on Twitter so it must be true, right!) that sometimes recruiting typhoons can actually pump the trough in the GOA and force a downstream ridge over eastern NA.  Now, I am no fan of early season typhoons unleashing the Arctic hounds.  That has happened twice in the last ten years that I can think of and it took forever for NA to reload the cold pattern as the cold was "spent" too early.  The following two winters I think were warm early on, maybe the entire winter.  I am willing to bide my time with slightly AN temps for the next 8-10 weeks until we can get a delivery mechanism which is able deliver the coldest air during winter and not fall.

Yep.  Saw that the ridge is showing some signs of returning on the EPS mean and also on the GEFS mean, though the 6z GEFS run was less enthused.  Seems like then 6z CFS(the one that runs through mid Nov) was cold for November, but everyone knows I don't trust the CFS.  OTH, the CFSv2 seasonal through January is exactly opposite of my winter ideas.  LOL.  Definitely interested to see what the MJO does.  If it gets into phases 2 and 3 I think that favors more of a trough over the eastern US.  But I completely understand betting the ridge as it has the "hot hand."  (bad joke Monday)

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18z GFS advertising sharp cold front swing through Friday.  Jeff mentioned this in his earlier discussion.  GFS has temps in the upper 30s in middle TN by Saturday AM - we'll see if that is right.  40s seem more likely.  Still...look at the temps in from and behind this boundary.  Pretty impressive.  I just grabbed the front as it approaches Nashville.  Later in the run, temps are in the upper 30s in middle TN while temps in NE TN are in the low 60s.  

671247622_ScreenShot2019-10-07at6_38_11PM.png.3262d2a397f350f750f618daa2c1fdc9.png

 

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS advertising sharp cold front swing through Friday.  Jeff mentioned this in his earlier discussion.  GFS has temps in the upper 30s in middle TN by Saturday AM - we'll see if that is right.  40s seem more likely.  Still...look at the temps in from and behind this boundary.  Pretty impressive.  I just grabbed the from as it approaches Nashville.  Later in the run, temps are in the upper 30s in middle TN while temps in NE TN are in the low 60s.  

671247622_ScreenShot2019-10-07at6_38_11PM.png.3262d2a397f350f750f618daa2c1fdc9.png

 

Impressive.  

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2 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Impressive.  

Now, the real question is whether it is actually overdone or not.  Considering that the cold is not in a shallow trough, that is good.  Right now, to be expected, the cold has a tendency not to get as far south as modeled.  If it follows recent patterns, that front will moderate quite a bit during future runs.  But we have some wiggle room with that map.  The problem with last Friday's cool front and today's is that the base of the trough was shallow.  The Euro won both battles regarding tough depth.  Still is much cooler, but was not as cool as the GFS maps.  So, knowing that...use the map accordingly.  LOL.

The Euro Weeklies from tonight are fairly interesting in that they are not enthused about leaving any reformation of the Eastern ridge in place during November.  Is it right?  No idea.  Heck, am I even interpreting a fairly washed out look correctly?  I will give it a shot without boxing myself in to one camp or the other.   What is frustrating is the Euro Weeklies maps continue to miss BN temps on the surface map, even though though current surface temps have actually had plenty of BN temps in NA.  (Conversely, some CFS maps will look like the Ice Age is advancing) That said, if one looks at the 500 maps and 850 maps...looks like a bit of a washed out trough that tries to develop over the East in early to mid November(take the slower timing IMHO).  What does that tell me?  Looked like a washed out mess in November.  What they do suggest is there are likely several members that are not in agreement with an eastern trough but maybe slightly more that do at 500.  Again, always good to remind folks that we don't live at 500, but it does give a good idea at hemispheric circulation patterns.  Around the last week of October it shows a ridge out West build with a shallow mean trough centered over the MS w a SER(kudos to Jeff) over the SE east of the Apps which eventually evolves into a broad trough over the eastern 2/3 of the country during early to mid November and leaves a slight hint of a SER.  Now, sometimes a SER is a bad word...it is just bad when it pumps 90 degree temps into my neighborhood in perpetuity.  We don't want things so suppressed that everything goes OTS.  Got to have a little bit of one or at least some resistance in the western Atlantic.  We also don't want that SER to connect with a -NAO...Overall, looks like maybe a nice fall pattern which evolves. I will add that I have generally begun to ignore Euro Weeklies temp constructs after week 2 and just look at 500 and 850temp maps.  Problem with ignoring the Euro temps maps is they don't show source regions very well for the bank of maps that I have access to.  I can just see anomaly maps vs actual temp maps.  What looks like a nice trough might not have a ton of cold available.  Anyway, hopefully Jeff will chime in and add his thoughts.   I do think October will finish much AN...just to many positive departures to erase.  November I would guess as normalish based on those maps...but again source regions matter as well as the depth of any trough.  

Last thing I will say to folks is to be very wary of Weeklies maps during shoulder seasons...they are notoriously fickle for understandable reasons.  

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I think it's too early to even guess what winter may be like. If the IOD remains positive, i believe the trough would be over the central/east, which would match up with mjo in colder phases in winter. But of course i am no weather man lol.

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How fun would it be to see this in winter?  We haven't had a -NAO average in October since 2014. Memorable winters don't match up in any particular fashion with a -NAO in Oct. 2013-14 both had -NAO Octobers with cold/snowy winters for parts of the forum area. As did 2009 and 2010, both 09-10 and 10-11 were cold and snowy winters. But the frigid snowy winters from 1959-1966, as well as 1995 leading into 1996 and the late 70s winters were all +NAO Octobers.

gfs_z500a_namer_59.png

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Somebody explain how the extreme version of the IOD will impact the MJO weather and/or downstream weather in the US...I always forget which zones are which for the MJO.  Would maybe think that it is or is going to have some impact on the SOI as it measures the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin.  @nrgjeff, with this being so strong do we know what the downstream effects will be or is it an unknown?  As noted earlier, you used this last year.  How is it best used?  

 

 

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First the IOD and Modoki signature above is indeed a cold signal for the Southeast, pre-climate change. It's worthless post-climate change.

Second the typhoon remnants slams into the Pac NW, undercutting any AK ridge. That's torch east of the Rockies.

Later in winter any undercutting mild flow also gets to work with +AMO. My forecast for internal clients is a mild winter Southeast.

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12z ensemble show a very back-and-forth pattern.  Looks like a great week next week, then maybe a quick pop of the SER and another trough.  MJO is helping us out - maybe.  JMA was much different than CFS/Euro combo for weeks 3-4.    Haven't done my usual browsing through today's wx data, but did get a quick look at the 12z suite.  MRX has highs in the mid to upper 60s later next week for TRI - Jeff's fall weather which he discussed..  Right now we are running anywhere from 14-20 degrees below last week..and still somewhat AN.  However, it feels great given where we were.  Also, potentially some low 40s for lows at TRI next week.

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500 pattern on tonight's Weeklies looked acceptable.  It runs almost all of the way through the end of November now but not quite.  Pattern is a ridge in the East builds and is beaten down by a trough.  Trough temporarily sets up shop in the East.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  No death permanent death ridge.  850 temps look reasonable.  2m temps again look exaggerated to the AN side.   Nice to actually look at a set of maps that are not set on perpetual furnace mode with never-ending 500 mega-ridges.  I think the forum has done a good job hashing out what is to come for the rest of the month.  Those ideas look good.  November is a question mark for me.  I can definitely see both sides of the coin.  With those heights over AK and the coastal West and heights in HB...have to think the pattern will likely be an elongated trough from the Northwest into the East of varying depths....Missoula to say Kansas City with it at times extending to Atlanta.  Going to be a real fight between the SER and approaching cold fronts.  Right now with summer time temps in the SE, the SER is formidable.  As winter kicks in...the cold fronts will likely have more power to punch and hold.  

Keep the fires burning...I have been working as a volunteer in our local HS marching band this season.  Weekends are gonna be busy for the month of October.  Fridays are obviously HS games and Saturdays will be competitions.  Huge amounts of respect for those young people as they have marched right through this record heat...tough hombres.  Obviously, they are monitored closely with plenty of water breaks.  Still..now you know why I have been interested in the heat.  This week has been a welcome reprieve!   You folks from the area know how hard they work.  They pocketed their first ever national title in their division last year.   Needless to say, they will get everyone's best this season during regional competitions.  Regardless, they will take a trip to the Rose Bow Parade in January.   Definitely going to be keeping an eye on the weather during the next three weekends, though this weekend is in a dome.  Next two are outside.  Probably will get you all to keep an eye on the weather in Pasadena when they head out there...

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If you can get hands on the overnight run of the EPS, give it a look d10-16 evolution is interesting for kicks and giggles - almost all of NA is cold at 850.  Not sure I buy that, but that would be a trough that means business.  Proceed at your own risk as this is the time of year(shoulder season) that it really flips around.  We can at least enjoy it until the next run.

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The 12z EPS again looks nice with its evolution post d10 - if one likes fall weather.  18z GFS looks remarkably similar.  Let's see if those looks get modified as we get closer as has been the recent pattern.  For now, maybe some guarded hope that we might see some pretty chilly temps later this month(likely to see one more strong ridge embedded in the 16 day forecast range...but looks like it might be limited in duration.)

Speaking of temps...I have West Yellowstone on my phone for wx.  When I woke up, it was 2 degrees there.  Record cold temps during this past night out West.   

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Pattern looks really volatile,not only do you have Harigis that's going to spin off Japan you have to look into the GOM for at least a tropical wave which could develop from a Kelvin,good luck with the long range

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