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AMZ8990

Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

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0z GFS & CMC had a small, decent snow for most of East TN on that run. Still about a week out, but good signals today I think. At the very least, looks to be very cold next week and it is nice to have something to watch this early in the season.

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55 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I am kevin from ne Arkansas. I do have a question. What do we need to watch for to see if December and rest of the winter will be cold? I think most are curious about what. 

For the shorter term the best things to look for are where blocking sets up in the Pacific and over the Arctic/Atlantic.  That will show whether or not we have trough east and ridge west or if we get the ridge with a western trough.  You're far enough West that for you a decent case is for us to have a bit of a SE Ridge. You want Apps runners or southern sliders. But all in all it's tough to get anything particularly accurate about the pattern at 500mb beyond 10-14 days. 

Jax is good with fronts crossing Asia and how they propagate around the globe, but they don't really apply to the long lead you're looking at when you're talking 1 to 3 months. 

For the Eastern 2/3rds of the forum a cold November led to a colder and often snowy/icy winter roughly 7 of every 10 times they happened. For the western valley areas like Memphis to NE Arkansas and N Miss, the correlation was less. More like 50/50.

 If the Eastern valley,  Nashville, Knox, Chatt, Huntsville, Tri, SE Ky, SWVA etc have a warm November,  we are the other side of the coin with about 7 in 10 leading to a warm winter.  Jackson, Memphis, Jonesboro, Tupelo weren't as affected by a warm November. I believe they were also around 50/50 on that one too. Meaning you guys had equal chances at a cold or warm winter no matter how November went.  Not sure why it worked out differently over a relatively short distance. But there was a stark difference between even Clarksville and Memphis. 

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The Euro isn't far off with upper features but it just doesn't get the moisture transport up the front out of Texas and get the miller A going. 

Huge high on the GFS and Euro. That's some January stuff. Will see how close they verify.  Last year both models had issues with too high of pressure dropping out of Canada. In this case, they could lose 5mb and still be big highs. 

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1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Man... Wish I could just trust the GFS... 12z looks nice!

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I agree. Statewide back side snow for everyone! Still 6-7 days out. Weenie map below

image.thumb.png.8e17f14dc57e36a356bfc464b5b45159.png

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I typically don't like the rain changing to snow scenario here in the valley. Usually doesn't work out 9 out of 10 times. With that said, this cold, at least for now, seems rather impressive so I'm holding out a little hope right now. This is also the first real test for the GFS this winter, so we will see how it does.

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I typically don't like the rain changing to snow scenario here in the valley. Usually doesn't work out 9 out of 10 times. With that said, this cold, at least for now, seems rather impressive so I'm holding out a little hope right now. This is also the first real test for the GFS this winter, so we will see how it does.
Agree usually this scenario is cold chasing rain where you might see a few flakes for a few minutes before the moisture moves out. Still fun to watch, I'll be really impressed if the Euro joins or moves in the direction of the GFS until then just fun watch especially considering how early in the season it is.

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I agree. Statewide back side snow for everyone! Still 6-7 days out. Weenie map below
image.thumb.png.8e17f14dc57e36a356bfc464b5b45159.png

It’s been a long time since we’ve had a system that defies logic and climatology


.

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The Canadian almost looks like a very far south Miller B. Looks like a low transfers from the western gulf to off the Florida coast but it could just be a low developing late on the front.  

I've seen the concert the GFS is singing way too many times last year when it was the para to believe it's suddenly right. It would do this up until 24-36 hours out last winter. The Euro did a few times as well. 

That said, large snow events happen here in November, I'll have to look up the last one though, seems like it's been a while. 

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Safe to say all the big global models have some sort of energy along the front..now just need to start seeing some consensus between each OP and their Ensembles.
I'll take what the Euro is selling...

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12z GEFS not as enthusiastic about the chances, about 50% chances of flakes...10-20% chance of flakes sticking to something lol. Think we could see things swing back and forth up to 48-72 hrs out. Remember some of the old timers saying..when a big HP comes down the plains, watch for surprise energy pieces when front is entering SE or on the backside when it begins to relax.

20191106_134746.jpg

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18z GFS looks a little more like reality. Low forms a little more south than 12z and not as much moisture available. Looks like a quick changeover from rain to snow along the backside of the front, which is what normally happens around here so much more believable to me.

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18z GFS looks a little more like reality. Low forms a little more south than 12z and not as much moisture available. Looks like a quick changeover from rain to snow along the backside of the front, which is what normally happens around here so much more believable to me.

If we want some snow I’d rather be a little too far NW at the moment.


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