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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

LOL, not quite yet, this weekend looks like more of this fantastic late summer/early fall weather that is too good to pass up.

But, a few more weeks and we’ll definitely be watching for those first dustings in the peaks around here in NNE.  The earliest recorded accumulations on Mt. Mansfield are actually only a week from today (see inset in the graph below), and of course on Mt. Washington it can happen at almost any time.  I ran the early snowfall numbers for Mt. Mansfield a few years back and found that first snows occurred in September at an average rate of about twice a decade, and only about once a decade do we not have that first snow by October.  I recently assembled the actual numbers though, and I’ve plotted those below.  The occurrence of first snow by October is actually a bit higher than 90% though, so the absence of snow by October is closer to once every 15 years vs. once a decade.  First snows are potentially a bit more frequent than the numbers indicate too, since there are some seasons with chunks of autumn data missing, and with the ephemeral nature of early season snow and the variability in personnel making those observations, some occurrences of snow could easily been missed.

21AUG19A.jpg

Will has mentioned his inclinations toward mild Octobers before, and I’m definitely with him on that.  Killing off the bugs and then having Indian Summer with foliage is amazing.  Up here though, the other side of the coin can also be good.  If we can get those below average temperature that bring a decent early snowfall, the turns can be great sometimes.  Even if the snow is meager though, you still get those vistas of foliage and white.

That 8/28/86 system is a standout.  Even down here my high was 58° and the following morning the low was 34°.  The low still stands at the record low for the date and month but the high was broken the next year with a high of only 56°.

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even with him downsloping on NE winds....that’s going to be tough. 

That’s one helluva backdoor front on the GFS.  

Has NE CT at 72F at 18z on Sunday, then NE flow brings 55F by 00z and 47F by 6z.  

Some raw chill late Sunday into Monday morning...that’s no rad cooling, just raw NE flow.

7219D01D-4D39-4C3C-AB28-54462AD08D32.thumb.png.edfbf77c43aa1bb969aefa5a236fd776.png

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Pattern turns Warm and humid day 9/3 on. Watch and see. Bermuda high backs back in

Hasn't the "warm/hot & humid climate" always been 10 days out?  Sounds like continuous cold last winter always being 10 days away.  Every time you say "and on" or "and beyond" it lasts a few days and then we get a break.  It's been like that all summer.  Yeah it's been warm and AN but what's the longest stretch of HHH been this summer?  5-7 days?

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s one helluva backdoor front on the GFS.  

Has NE CT at 72F at 18z on Sunday, then NE flow brings 55F by 00z and 47F by 6z.  

Some raw chill late Sunday into Monday morning...that’s no rad cooling, just raw NE flow.

7219D01D-4D39-4C3C-AB28-54462AD08D32.thumb.png.edfbf77c43aa1bb969aefa5a236fd776.png

If you think that will be close to reality it’s time to end your hobby. I mean come on. It’ll be 70’s then 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you think that will be close to reality it’s time to end your hobby. I mean come on. It’ll be 70’s then 

It’ll be in the 70s at 6z on Sunday night?  Noted.  

I just said the model has you in the 70s Sunday afternoon before something slips in your backdoor.  Sunday night looks raw with NE flow chill.  The evolution doesn’t look completely off-base.

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

40’s in August in this pattern. I’ll eat his shorts if that comes close 

What does “in this pattern” refer to?  Summer in general?   The evolution models are offering up have the air mass coming from the Canadian Maritimes.

GGEM is a bit warmer than GFS but Sunday night and Monday night are still fairly chilly.  Highs in the upper 60s daytime.  I think 40s would be highly unlikely for you but 53-56F on NE flow certainly possible.  

B2101C4A-0BCA-4106-86E5-CEAC65E4FBF0.thumb.png.a2e7c5e904323eec826c672382a30df7.png

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You won’t be in 40s

Models will likely moderate a bit, just like when they pop 98’s that verify as 94F... but every model right now has Sunday night quite chilly.  Be interesting to see if that on-shore flow gathers steam or peters out.  ICON also has SNE as 47-53F early Monday morning, GFS isn’t totally out there.  Higher terrain Monanocks and east slope of Berks maybe?

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Models will likely moderate a bit, just like when they pop 98’s that verify as 94F... but every model right now has Sunday night quite chilly.  Be interesting to see if that on-shore flow gathers steam or peters out.  ICON also has SNE as 47-53F early Monday morning, GFS isn’t totally out there.  Higher terrain Monanocks and east slope of Berks maybe?

With his elevation that would be tough imo. That’s my guess. I bet lower spots will. We shall see.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

With his elevation that would be tough imo. That’s my guess. I bet lower spots will. We shall see.

Ahh I was looking at it like the terrain would be the coolest on NE flow.  Like a misty cool with the coldest at say 500-1,500ft like a CAD situation.  Of course 850 temps are really disconnected with the wedge.

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