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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change


donsutherland1
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On 7/26/2021 at 1:10 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Don - if ur around

Do you by any chance have the historic PNA values - the notably anomalous periods in history ?   I'm curious where the present CPC GEFs may rank for early August:

 

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

 I'm not Don but I follow the indices closely. Assuming the forecast verifies pretty well, which is highly likely this close based on GEFS PNA forecasts having done quite well, the upcoming peak would be highly anomalous though not really all that extraordinary because ASO strongly + peaks occur much more often for some reason than during other months as you'll see below. And that's nothing new. I'd love to know the reason! (Aside: So, there's really no clear-cut evidence to connect this to AGW/CC imo. I'm mentioning this only because this is a CC thread).

 The GEFS is suggesting a high chance at a peak of 2.8+ in early Aug. Since 1950, there have been only 6 peaks of 2.8+:

- 3.397 09/24/08

- 3.328 07/02/82

- 3.160  08/01/09

- 3.142  09/28/79

- 3.112   09/30/59

- 2.965  09/26/02

 So, the last one was 12 years ago. Note that all 6 occurred during JAS meaning the upcoming early Aug peak fits in fairly well with this climo. Interestingly though, 4 of the 6 were within the tiny interval of the last week of Sep!

 

 Since 1950, there have been this many peaks by month of 2+ adding to a total of 59 peaks or ~once per year:

Jan 0

Feb 2

Mar 0

Apr 2

May 2

Jun 7

Jul 7

Aug 12

Sep 16

Oct 10

Nov 1

Dec 0

 

 So, since 1950, there were only 7 peaks of 2+ during Nov-May or once every 10 years with the highest being only 2.353! Only 2 of the 72 DJFs had one and they were both in very late Feb: 2/29/68 and 2/28/83. OTOH, a whopping 38 of the 59 (~2/3) occurred during ASO with all 10 in Oct during Oct 1-12!

Source for daily PNA: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

7/29/21 GEFS PNA forecast:

 

PNAgefs072921.gif

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On 7/29/2021 at 6:52 AM, LibertyBell said:

Glad they're talking about population growth and climate change being intrinsically linked because they are.

 

https://us.yahoo.com/news/end-summer-weve-known-181857950.html

well nature does natural population control in the form of pandemics ;) it also happens to lower pollution and carbon footprint levels (so it proves the studies that show that the best way to limit one's carbon footprint is to have one less child.)

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14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I'm not Don but I follow the indices closely. Assuming the forecast verifies pretty well, which is highly likely this close based on GEFS PNA forecasts having done quite well, the upcoming peak would be highly anomalous though not really all that extraordinary because ASO strongly + peaks occur much more often for some reason than during other months as you'll see below. And that's nothing new. I'd love to know the reason! (Aside: So, there's really no clear-cut evidence to connect this to AGW/CC imo. I'm mentioning this only because this is a CC thread).

 The GEFS is suggesting a high chance at a peak of 2.8+ in early Aug. Since 1950, there have been only 6 peaks of 2.8+:

- 3.397 09/24/08

- 3.328 07/02/82

- 3.160  08/01/09

- 3.142  09/28/79

- 3.112   09/30/59

- 2.965  09/26/02

 So, the last one was 12 years ago. Note that all 6 occurred during JAS meaning the upcoming early Aug peak fits in fairly well with this climo. Interestingly though, 4 of the 6 were within the tiny interval of the last week of Sep!

 

 Since 1950, there have been this many peaks by month of 2+ adding to a total of 59 peaks or ~once per year:

Jan 0

Feb 2

Mar 0

Apr 2

May 2

Jun 7

Jul 7

Aug 12

Sep 16

Oct 10

Nov 1

Dec 0

 

 So, since 1950, there were only 7 peaks of 2+ during Nov-May or once every 10 years with the highest being only 2.353! Only 2 of the 72 DJFs had one and they were both in very late Feb: 2/29/68 and 2/28/83. OTOH, a whopping 38 of the 59 (~2/3) occurred during ASO with all 10 in Oct during Oct 1-12!

Source for daily PNA: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

7/29/21 GEFS PNA forecast:

 

PNAgefs072921.gif


To followup, here’s today’s GEFS PNA forecast, which is very similarly suggesting a near +3 within the first few days of August:

 

 

4F1BB30F-965D-4D23-9A32-6D1B397ACA88.jpeg

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On 7/26/2021 at 1:10 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey Don - if ur around

Do you by any chance have the historic PNA values - the notably anomalous periods in history ?   I'm curious where the present CPC GEFs may rank for early August:

 

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

Sorry, I hadn’t seen this post. GaWx provided the numbers.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Sorry, I hadn’t seen this post. GaWx provided the numbers.

 Today's GEFS is actually slightly stronger. So that I don't clutter this excellent thread up with more posts on this very strong upcoming +PNA being that there is no clear-cut indication that it is related to CC, I decided to create a thread here to cover it:

 

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Rich people moving to and making bunkers in New Zealand to avoid the worst effects of climate change

 

https://twitter.com/i/events/1422665836372938754

Good morning Liberty better to try to deal with the problem than to escape it. Those ‘poor’ rich folks may delay it but will eventually end up as their own last meals. As always ……

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The new IPCC report is out- it's bleak.

https://twitter.com/i/events/1424568170749202438

The only way to stop these corporations is to execute them with the death penalty and to organize a Nuremburg style court system on them and seize their property and all their assets and to utilize the military on them to destroy them to smithereens and round up their leaders and imprison them for the rest of their lives.  Money constitutes power and the only way to destroy power is to bring the force of arms against it.  The fossil fuel cartels must be declared enemies of the planet and of humanity and be punished accordingly.

 
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" 'We have zero years left to avoid dangerous climate change,' expert says  "

That's a CNN headline/ content sourcing.  That needs to be considered ... but,

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/09/world/global-climate-change-report-un-ipcc/index.html

...once one has filtrated through the  necessary incendiary rhetorical fire-suppression system, there likely is/are aspects of import there. 

 

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33 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

we aren't even trying, if you aren't fatalistic on climate change, u aren't paying attention

best to buckle up and try to enjoy watching the world end

we're ok, chevron is exceeding its goals

E8W-OUEWQAE9MIJ?format=jpg&name=medium

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The report’s finding of an unequivocal link between human activities and climate change was expected from the recent literature and also devastating. That link vividly illustrates that climate change denial is a dead-end belief system with damaging, if not deadly, consequences for the world, its peoples, and its ecosystems.
 

Rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by curbing and then eliminating fossil fuel combustion are needed to avert the worst consequences of climate change. Policy makers should move aggressively and immediately to start reducing such emissions and then winding them down to achieve net zero.

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9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The report’s finding of an unequivocal link between human activities and climate change was expected from the recent literature and also devastating. That link vividly illustrates that climate change denial is a dead-end belief system with damaging, if not deadly, consequences for the world, its peoples, and its ecosystems.
 

Rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by curbing and then eliminating fossil fuel combustion are needed to avert the worst consequences of climate change. Policy makers should move aggressively and immediately to start reducing such emissions and then winding them down to achieve net zero.

The thing though is that there are those of us who knew all this back in the late 80s, and the people who were denialists then are still (mostly) denialists now- with a few exceptions of course.  You can't change the minds of deniers, you just need to wait for them to die off.

I wish they'd use much stronger wording (I think they did in the report but not a lot of that was mentioned in the media) basically that this is an extinction level event that if we dont change our ways as a species our time on this planet will be extremely limited.  That's what needs to be said.

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24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Almost certainly, Chevron’s targets have nothing to do with Scope 3 emissions, which are the vast majority of its emissions.

Chevron's entire board needs to be in prison for what they are putting lawyers through who are suing them for dumping toxic chemicals in third world countries like Ecuador which are killing people.

 

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25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Almost certainly, Chevron’s targets have nothing to do with Scope 3 emissions, which are the vast majority of its emissions.

Fortunately we have conscientious activists like Greenpeace who have exposed the fossil fuel cartels for what they are.  They bribe our politicians and lie to us, they have no intention of reaching any "targets" in the taped recordings they revealed they just say these things to try to improve their public image.  That applies to the entire cartel.  And only the idiots believe them.

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The thing though is that there are those of us who knew all this back in the late 80s, and the people who were denialists then are still (mostly) denialists now- with a few exceptions of course.  You can't change the minds of deniers, you just need to wait for them to die off.

I wish they'd use much stronger wording (I think they did in the report but not a lot of that was mentioned in the media) basically that this is an extinction level event that if we dont change our ways as a species our time on this planet will be extremely limited.  That's what needs to be said.

Below are some of the key findings that this site did not lay out:

It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred…

Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850…

The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole and the present state of many aspects of the climate system are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years…

Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe…

It is virtually certain that hot extremes (including heatwaves) have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions since the 1950s, while cold extremes (including cold waves) have become less frequent and less severe, with high confidence that human-induced climate change is the main driver of these changes. Some recent hot extremes observed over the past decade would have been extremely unlikely to occur without human influence on the climate system. Marine heatwaves have approximately doubled in frequency since the 1980s (high confidence), and human influence has very likely contributed to most of them since at least 2006…

Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered. Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades…

Compared to 1850–1900, global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 is very likely to be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C under the very low GHG emissions scenario considered (SSP1-1.9), by 2.1°C to 3.5°C in the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5) and by 3.3°C to 5.7°C under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 was over 3 million years ago (medium confidence)…

Many changes in the climate system become larger in direct relation to increasing global warming. They include increases in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes, marine heatwaves, and heavy precipitation, agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions, and proportion of intense tropical cyclones, as well as reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost…

Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level…

From a physical science perspective, limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, reaching at least net zero CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions. Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CH4 emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality.

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We are well and truly screwed....

 

I got a 3C rise by 2100 as the most likely scenario from the graphs I looked at.....that would mean that it hasn't been this warm since over 3 million years ago, before a single human roamed the earth?  Those were the days of Australopithecus and Lucy living in eastern Africa (Tanzania/Kenya.)

Just as a point of reference, Don, how hot was it when the dinosaurs roamed the earth in the Cretaceous and flowering plants did not (could not) exist?  This doesn't even mention the massive mass extinction event humanity has caused which is killing off many species vital to our existence (read pollinators.)

Once again, we are well and truly screwed.....

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31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We are well and truly screwed....

 

I got a 3C rise by 2100 as the most likely scenario from the graphs I looked at.....that would mean that it hasn't been this warm since over 3 million years ago, before a single human roamed the earth?  Those were the days of Australopithecus and Lucy living in eastern Africa (Tanzania/Kenya.)

Just as a point of reference, Don, how hot was it when the dinosaurs roamed the earth in the Cretaceous and flowering plants did not (could not) exist?  This doesn't even mention the massive mass extinction event humanity has caused which is killing off many species vital to our existence (read pollinators.)

Once again, we are well and truly screwed.....

Here’s a good link:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been

 

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