Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[chubbs]

Animation showing the records tied or broken in the past 24-hours. Pink are March records. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's not the issue. His inaccurate claims concerning Phoenix in 1879 is the issue.

Even if there was a huge heat spike in 1879 it's always about longevity. How long did that type of heat last in 1879. 

Today's heat is a combo of extreme highs + longevity. Nothing in recorded history comes close 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Even if there was a huge heat spike in 1879 it's always about longevity. How long did that type of heat last in 1879. 

Today's heat is a combo of extreme highs + longevity. Nothing in recorded history comes close 

Yes. This is a far more prolonged and more severe heatwave. Indeed, the five-day average high in Phoenix (103.8°) is above the April record five-day average of 103.0° from April 26-30, 1992. Nothing comes close to comparing to this March heatwave in the Southwest.

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Even if there was a huge heat spike in 1879 it's always about longevity. How long did that type of heat last in 1879. 

Today's heat is a combo of extreme highs + longevity. Nothing in recorded history comes close 

I agree about the longevity of the current SW heat being very notable. Related to that, Phoenix has had a high today of at least 102 meaning 5 days in a row of 102+ after not having a single high >100 on record!

 But regarding longevity, doesn’t that bring the very long lasting 1930s dust bowl heat into the conversation?

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I agree about the longevity of the current SW heat being very notable. Related to that, Phoenix has had a high today of at least 102 meaning 5 days in a row of 102+ after not having a single high >100 on record!

 But regarding longevity, doesn’t that bring the very long lasting 1930s dust bowl heat into the conversation?

It does. But it's worth noting that the Dust Bowl was not a solely natural pattern-driven or cyclical event. Human factors helped create the conditions that made the Dust Bowl possible. The underlying drought was real and it was likely sparked by internal variability. However, poor land management made it far worse than it would otherwise have been. Extensive plowing of native grasslands and exposed topsoil left the land highly vulnerable to wind erosion once rainfall diminished turning a dry period into a catastrophe.

Overall, the Dust Bowl is a powerful analog for a climate-change-driven aridification scenario because it shows how prolonged drought, extreme heat, and depleted soil moisture can combine into a self-reinforcing phenomenon. One is already witnessing drought-heat feedback in the Southwest, which is likely in the early stages of aridification, as forecast on the climate models. 

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's not the issue. His inaccurate claims concerning Phoenix in 1879 is the issue.

Don your view that what is happening now has never occurred before as always remains your blind spot!

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Don your view that what is happening now has never occurred before as always remains your blind spot!

I didn't say "never" in the Earth's history. Almost certainly there were comparable or even more severe heatwaves during the mid-Pliocene, Eocene Thermal Maximum, etc. I stated, that the current March heatwave "is the most severe heatwave Phoenix has experienced in the period where records exist (even prior to the daily period of record that begins in August 1895) during March." It is. There's no credible information to suggest otherwise. 

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I didn't say "never" in the Earth's history. Almost certainly there were comparable or even more severe heatwaves during the mid-Pliocene, Eocene Thermal Maximum, etc. I stated, that the current March heatwave "is the most severe heatwave Phoenix has experienced in the period where records exist (even prior to the daily period of record that begins in August 1895) during March." It is. There's no credible information to suggest otherwise. 

I’m roughly projecting that March 2026 at Phoenix will end up 12-13 F above normal. The current warmest of any month of the year is only 10-11 F AN.