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USCAPEWEATHERAF

OKC metro PDS Tornado Watch into Joplin, MO and central MO, May 22nd 2019

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A major outbreak is beginning to occur.  This is just the beginning for the OKC metro area into Tulsa, OK and then Joplin, MO towards the city of St. Louis. MO.  After the eight-year anniversary of the horrific tornado that hit Joplin, MO in 2011, that killed 158 people.  Today they could be in the same situation, this is horrifying.  Storms have developed SW of OKC metro and then east of the metro moving northeastward.  A storm near Lawton, OK is the lone severe warned storm at this time, but this will change as the storms east of the metro area are gaining vertical height and will become severe.  Let's discuss about this situation.  

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Supercell storm getting better organized east of OKC as the lead northeast storm is showing signs of intensifying and could become tornadic rapidly.  Vertically climbing towers continue in this storm.

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tornado warning at Mulhall, OK -- looks like the beginnings of a TDS. storm relative velocity shows a delta-V of about 52 kts (not too strong, but quite possibly a tornado)

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north storm (east I-40)

Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
    
At 503 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Okfuskee, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

 

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Okmulgee tornado is occluding, new hook going to pass right over the city.

 

Also, new storm, now warned, fired north of Pauls Valley and moving into McClain County.

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According to the SPC mesoanalysis the newer VTP and EEHI parameters are very high in NE OK right now. If storms could get a bit more isolated these things might drop some strong tornadoes in a hurry. I will say the cell south of Tulsa has a lot of room to work with.

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New storms rapidly developing again in southern OK, notably NE of Duncan and S of Lawton. We'll see if they'll maintain or if the cap with punch them down again.

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Just now, Calderon said:

New storms rapidly developing again in southern OK, notably NE of Duncan and S of Lawton. We'll see if they'll maintain or if the cap with punch them down again.

The cap won't do much, once these storms break through.  The NE OK storms have done so, and they are nearly reaching -70C temps, which means they are high tops.  Joplin, MO is going to be under the crosshairs in the next 4 hours, a long, tracking, violent tornado is possible for the area.

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And it looks like the new development along the MO/KS border just south of KC may be the next batch to watch.

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14 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The cap won't do much, once these storms break through.  The NE OK storms have done so, and they are nearly reaching -70C temps, which means they are high tops.  Joplin, MO is going to be under the crosshairs in the next 4 hours, a long, tracking, violent tornado is possible for the area.

they're still struggling to fight it and bust through, and unless things change soon, they won't.

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22 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

According to the SPC mesoanalysis the newer VTP and EEHI parameters are very high in NW OK right now. If storms could get a bit more isolated these things might drop some strong tornadoes in a hurry. I will say the cell south of Tulsa has a lot of room to work with.

You mean NE OK

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NW limits of the city of Joplin, MO are in the crosshairs of a tornado-producing supercell with the history of producing tornadoes, this monster has a great hook echo attached, and could be turning right into the city.

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I thought Joplin, might have escaped with the first initial tornado warned cell east of Tulsa, OK, but it looks like newer and stronger development southwest looks bad for the city.

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