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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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wow!

On another note, looks like Denver will set an all time #1 warmest September if forecast temps hold. Previous record was +6.0 in 2015, we're headed for about +6.1 or 6.2. 

And Centennial, near where I live, only has records going back a few decades, but is now at +8.1 for the month. Bone dry too.

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Sunset on 9 29 (today)

note: record high of 86 degrees today ties a record high from 1933.

For the month of September, so far (with 29 days) Fort Collins has tied for the record warmest for September. (67.1 degrees vs a climate normal of 61.5 degrees.) 

04fPFf5.jpg

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In the category of "obliterating existing records"... :o

After the recent snowstorm in western MT, with over 4 feet of snow around Glacier National Park, Cut Bank dropped to 6F on 9/30/19.  This shatters the old daily record of 19F set in 1959.

This morning (10/1/19), Cut Bank dropped to 1F.  The old daily record was 14F, set in 1950.

  

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On 9/27/2019 at 2:22 PM, mayjawintastawm said:

wow!

On another note, looks like Denver will set an all time #1 warmest September if forecast temps hold. Previous record was +6.0 in 2015, we're headed for about +6.1 or 6.2. 

And Centennial, near where I live, only has records going back a few decades, but is now at +8.1 for the month. Bone dry too.

Missed it by that much. Sept turned out to average 69.3 degrees, thanks to a slightly cooler than predicted low temp the last couple days of the month, with the old record of 69.4. Of note, however, is that the 2nd warmest Sept came right after the 3rd warmest August. I don't know where to look, but I'd bet that was the warmest Jul-Aug combination on record.

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What day should we start the Mountain West winter discussion?

Leaves are beginning to change. Things are mostly green, but I see some maple trees changing colors these days, as well as some other types.

Sunset colors from Oct 5th

RSSChtn.jpg

 

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Everybody knows fire and snow don't go together. But maybe they do. Also, the pink for the winter storm warning is close to the magenta for the red flag warning.

DBjipCz.jpg

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Based on the reported precipitation during today's snowfall, Great Falls, MT has very likely surpassed 20" snow for the 2019-20 season to date. Prior to 2019, the earliest Great Falls recorded 20" or more seasonal snowfall was October 28, 1925.

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3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

It's late forming and not certain...but looks like an El Nino Modoki is forming. Fairly cold waters by Peru & the Philippines with warm water in Nino 4/3.4

What are the implications for the mountain west?

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11 hours ago, Chinook said:

Everybody knows fire and snow don't go together. But maybe they do. Also, the pink for the winter storm warning is close to the magenta for the red flag warning.

 

"I've seen fire, and I've seen snow... I've seen tornadoes and some hail like you'd never know... I've seen blizzards, heat, and drought that never ends... So I know that I'm in Colorado again."

- cue the tomatoes..... (huge apologies to JT but couldn't resist)

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It looked like a slightly below average snowfall season for Denver when I ran my initial simulation. But that blend assumed a Neutral with warm waters in Nino 3.4 staying west of 140W. It seems like they'll spread east enough to be an El Nino.

Ultimately I think its a fairly seasonal winter for temperatures for NM and CO, but with a handful of very strong, wet storms. If the MJO gets stuck in phase 8/1/2 in winter,  like it is now, the current system set to be super cold for the time of year should show up again at some point, even if its not til March, but further South and more moisture.

My original weighting was 1953-54, 1983-84, 1992-93, 1995-96 (x3), 2009-10 (x2), 2018-19, but I can't really justify keeping 1995 that strong, even though Summer 1995 and the QBO are similar to 2019. I'm planning to have my outlook out later this week - I have the new weighting with the same years, it just takes a while to manually re-do the maps and data mining.

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Yesterday, Great Falls had a daily record 7.2" snow (old record: 1.7", 1975). That brought the 2019-20 total to 26.5". That is by far the earliest Great Falls has ever reached 26.5" seasonal snowfall. The previous mark occurred on November 27, 1985 when Great Falls reached 26.4". The previous highest figure through October 8 was 13.2" from 1934.

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It's still possible to use Weatherbell.com to look at national NDFD snow forecasts. And this is a big one. I'll be happy with 2" or less on this one. Because 60-70 degrees at this time of year is normal and totally fine with me. 

 

t11Axwz.png

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21 hours ago, raindancewx said:

It looked like a slightly below average snowfall season for Denver when I ran my initial simulation. But that blend assumed a Neutral with warm waters in Nino 3.4 staying west of 140W. It seems like they'll spread east enough to be an El Nino.

Ultimately I think its a fairly seasonal winter for temperatures for NM and CO, but with a handful of very strong, wet storms. If the MJO gets stuck in phase 8/1/2 in winter,  like it is now, the current system set to be super cold for the time of year should show up again at some point, even if its not til March, but further South and more moisture.

My original weighting was 1953-54, 1983-84, 1992-93, 1995-96 (x3), 2009-10 (x2), 2018-19, but I can't really justify keeping 1995 that strong, even though Summer 1995 and the QBO are similar to 2019. I'm planning to have my outlook out later this week - I have the new weighting with the same years, it just takes a while to manually re-do the maps and data mining.

Thanks for explaining. Look forward to seeing your forecast. FWIW, some of those analog years you mentioned featured above average snowfall for Denver — 83-84 in particular. So one can still reasonably hope, for now...

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Fort Collins had a high of 78 degrees, but it dropped to the lower 40's or upper 30's. As of 1 hour ago, there was graupel, up to diameter of 1/4", that covered the grass up to essentially a snow-depth of 1", with thunder and lightning. I was east of downtown Loveland near Hwy 34  at the time. Now it's 32 degrees.

 

sCqPLz1.jpg

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13 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Beautiful cold front.  Instant double digit temperature drop, 30+ mph winds

Was 74 here at 5:50 PM after a high of 82, then the brown gust front came through, dropping the temp 20 degrees in 50 minutes. 34 by 9:45 and a brisk 22 this AM. Snow is starting to stick.

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My place got about 2" and we have very light snow now. Denver must have been getting the heavy snow at 9:15AM.

 

Interesting note: there are some synoptic similarities to Oct 30-Nov 3, 1991, which was a large snowstorm on Colorado's plains all the way up to Duluth, where it was a very heavy storm. It was concurrent the "The Perfect Storm" so I like to call it "The Perfect Snowstorm."

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Hard Freeze Warnings are in effect for the TX panhandle and the OK panhandle for tonight with lows in the 20s and wind chills might reach as low as the upper single digits per the Amarillo WFO... even a slight chance of some light snow down there too tonight... wow

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There has been a 49 to 57 degree temperature drop from 24 hours ago. My area went from 78.4 degrees at about 3:00 or 4:00PM yesterday to 22.1 degrees this morning, but has rebounded to the 30's.

mdqb84N.gif

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