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2019 Tropical Weather Discussion

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98L with 50% 5 day development odds now.

 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

1. Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of
low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the
central Bahamas.  This system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over
the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast
United States coast.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and
the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Roberts

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Well the tropics certainly came alive in the last few days! Chantal, weakening depression, a home-grown TS looking likely off the SE coast, potential hurricane (99L) in MDR, and a successive wave train coming off the African coast. Get your popcorn ready.

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19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

98L with 50% 5 day development odds now.

 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

1. Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of
low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the
central Bahamas.  This system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over
the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast
United States coast.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and
the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Roberts

Looks like it's up to 90% development odds over next 5 days.

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

sfcmslp.conus.thumb.png.21df9ceed0022bb989f62fe63885524f.png

Euro is starting to show Dorian as a stronger system and making it into the Gulf...

Yeah RAH states that high to the NE is going to be key to how it eventually affects us. The (potentially) stalled front could act as a focal point for moisture streaming in from the SW. But where, when, and actually how are still up in the air.  

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GFS has been running a landfall on the east coast every 2-3 runs the rest are OTS, some closer than others....by the end of this week the GFS and other models will have ran so many run's with so many slightly different track that one of them will end up right....IF this thing dodges the first weakness and gets to the SW Atl the chances of it getting close are pretty high....heck the models develop several waves on different runs we might end up with 2-3 storms at once....

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2 years ago Irma made landfall twice in FL.

Was a rough storm for sure around here.

70-85 winds/gust. About a foot of rain. 

Was a miserable 8 days before the power came back on.

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3 hours ago, FLweather said:

2 years ago Irma made landfall twice in FL.

Was a rough storm for sure around here.

70-85 winds/gust. About a foot of rain. 

Was a miserable 8 days before the power came back on.

12 GFS still has the storm ~ Puerto Rico at day 7. Afterwards it shows it trying to recurve out to sea; but that's out in la la land. So anything is possible at this point.  

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95L could end up being a big rain maker for parts of the SE depending on track...the UKIE/Icon seems to want to go up the east coast of Florida and bring the rain more N the Euro more NW across Florida into AL/GA the GFS is like what storm....

 Euro 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019091112_192_5_220.thumb.png.da4085cc962e2ea1246330fe74c2ce10.png

UKIE

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019091112_144_5_220.thumb.png.17317ce19368a19ff6160f7aad526d0d.png

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Big changes to the Euro track it now almost landfalls on Hatteras on its way to NJ......would still easily probably give hurricane conditions to the OBX.....the UKie was faster and got OTS before the blocking high slams the door the Icon and Euro do not...all have a large hurricane off the SE coast by the beginning of next week....

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019091200_198_480_149.thumb.png.b791ca93faa5373bc1e73e1be493f49f.png

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RAH AFD

From Sunday Onward:

There is high model spread regarding the evolution of the 
disturbance over the Bahamas and any potential impacts it may or may 
not bring to central NC. Similar to what we saw with Dorian , a 
weakness within the expansive Subtropical ridge in place across the 
SE US is forecast to develop Sunday and into Monday, which should 
eventually steer the system northwestward towards the Florida 
peninsula and SE US coast. This system has the potential to be very 
slow moving/meandering  INVOF the SE US during the middle to late 
part of next week as it encounters the aforementioned blocky upper 
level ridge as it meanders across the eastern US. NC residents are 
advised to monitor the forecast for potential impacts over the next 
several days as the system becomes better organized. 

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RAH AFD
From Sunday Onward:There is high model spread regarding the evolution of the disturbance over the Bahamas and any potential impacts it may or may not bring to central NC. Similar to what we saw with Dorian , a weakness within the expansive Subtropical ridge in place across the SE US is forecast to develop Sunday and into Monday, which should eventually steer the system northwestward towards the Florida peninsula and SE US coast. This system has the potential to be very slow moving/meandering  INVOF the SE US during the middle to late part of next week as it encounters the aforementioned blocky upper level ridge as it meanders across the eastern US. NC residents are advised to monitor the forecast for potential impacts over the next several days as the system becomes better organized. 




It’ll be interesting to see how this thing develops. At the very least it would be nice to get some beneficial tropical rains from it. Although if you read the main tropical forum, lots of people are pulling for a NE or MA landfall... it’s getting kinda crazy over there...


.

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Thought this was pretty cool. Tracking the next system coming off Africa... via Severe Weather Europe

The hurricane season continues, and we are already monitoring new areas of potential development. Models are hinting at quick hurricane development, while the first thunderstorms are deep in Africa. This gives us a unique opportunity to follow hurricane formation live, from first thunderstorms to a major hurricane.  

http://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/follow-hurricane-formation-live/

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