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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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35 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Anyone know why it’s only Lake Erie that kills convection? As you said it’s crossed over other Great Lakes since yesterday, of which are also colder than Lake Erie due to their depth. 

I have a similar phenomenon here where I live in Eastern PA (Tamaqua) to be specific. A solid line of storms can roll across the entire state, as well as all the Appalachian ridgetops, fully intact, until it hits I-81 just to my west. At that point the line will weaken and fall apart and then just to my east will reform and slam the Allentown/Bethlehem area and points beyond. It happens about 90% of the time.

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On 7/20/2019 at 11:41 PM, WesterlyWx said:

Anyone know why it’s only Lake Erie that kills convection? As you said it’s crossed over other Great Lakes since yesterday, of which are also colder than Lake Erie due to their depth. 

I'm going out on a limb here but it might have to do with lake Erie being more effective in transferring heat(cooling) to the air moving across it. Number one its orientation leads well to funneling air over its entire length, its south shore having elevation immediately inland. Two, how shallow it is allows it to become very choppy quickly. Id imagine this increases friction and mixing as air flows over it.

I wonder if there isn't a safer place to live in the country than buffalo from a dangerous weather/natural disaster stance...

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2 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

I'm going out on a limb here but it might have to do with lake Erie being more effective in transferring heat(cooling) to the air moving across it. Number one its orientation leads well to funneling air over its entire length, its south shore having elevation immediately inland. Two, how shallow it is allows it to become very choppy quickly. Id imagine this increases friction and mixing as air flows over it.

I wonder if there isn't a safer place to live in the country than buffalo from a dangerous weather/natural disaster stance...

I'm not sure about that. That funneling aids in producing very high wind events, huge LES snowstorms, big rainfall events with Lake effect rain in the fall, and although rare tornadoes do occur. EF2 hit 1/2 mile from me last year. 

In relation to other areas in the country I do agree. We don't have to worry about earthquakes, hurricanes, and the majority of the time tornados. Flooding is also pretty rare around here. 

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More heat is a coming..

A typical mid summer pattern will take shape Friday through early
next week, with zonal flow confined mainly to along and north of the
Canadian border, with a dominant upper level ridge across the
southern U.S. extending into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. The
bulk of the more organized rain chances will stay north and west of
our region Friday through early next week in closer proximity to the
westerlies and better forcing. The vast majority of the time will be
rain free in our area, although a few isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms cannot be ruled out, mainly in the afternoon and
inland from the lakes. A southwest flow through the period will
likely produce sizable stable lake shadows that will reduce or
eliminate the chance for convection across most of the lake plains.

Temperatures will continue to creep upward with day to day warming
beneath the building ridge. Expect highs to reach the mid 80s at
lower elevations by Friday, and then mid to upper 80s at lower
elevations Saturday through early next week. Humidity will also
creep up with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s over the
weekend.
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Could really use some rain here in the ROC.  Looks like we have some hit or miss chances tomorrow and early Wednesday then dry for another 5-7 days.  Great for outdoor activities, not so great for the gardens.  Just need a quick inch tomorrow......  Not really complaining though as Park Ave fest is this weekend!

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SWS

At 1247 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Mexico Point State Park to near
Weedsport. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms along with
very heavy downpours.

Locations impacted include...
Fulton, Pulaski, Central Square, Weedsport, Cato, Fulton, Volney,
Richland, Palermo, New Haven, Phoenix, Ira, Conquest, Savannah,
Mexico, Port Byron and Orwell.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 near exit 40.
 Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 36.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle

00d91670-420c-49e3-b1e8-123a4a02614f.gif

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Spent the day in Kingston, ON (great little city...lots of pubs, outdoor restaurants, shops, and incredible views of the St Lawrence River and L Ontario - ferry ride across the mouth of the St Lawrence from Wolf Island was fantastic too). Anyhoo...amazing watching all the rain and storms get shunted to the north and south all day, just like back home off L Erie. 

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On 7/31/2019 at 11:03 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll be wearing my shorts, t shirt and tank top for the next 3-4 months. Big lots has their halloween stuff up already. :huh:

Frig wegmans had Sam Adams Octoberfest beer LAST WEEK on the shelves!!! I will say though I think we may have seen our hot stretch of the summer, CPC is showing a decent chance in the 8 to 14 for BN temps for pretty much the northern half of the US. Then the 3 to 4 week is average and at that time we slip into the mid to upper 70's. Warm days are ahead for sure but we can leave the humidity in the tropics where it belongs

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We have a routine of going in the pool every day after work floating around with our dog who loves to swim. I'll pass on the cold weather for awhile. I do love football season though. Will be going up to the Adirondacks for my buddys bachelor party in late September which should have some good color. 

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As we end the week...there is a suggestion that a robust shortwave
in the northern branch will make its way into our region from the
Upper Great lakes. This would once again increase our chance for
some showers and thunderstorms while introducing a very cool airmass
for the ensuing weekend. In fact...ensemble guidance suggests
that cooler than normal weather will persist through the second
full week of the month.

610temp.new (2).gif

814temp.new (8).gif

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Sad times we live in. Greenland just recorded its highest temp ever recorded on the glacier. Europe just experienced all time record breaking heat all across that continent with many areas breaking all time record highs. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/07/31/greenland-ice-sheet-is-throes-one-its-greatest-melting-events-ever-recorded/?noredirect=on

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